Well, it's July 31....the trading deadline (for non-waiver clearing trades).....the Brewers ended up aquiring Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers for Vinnie Rottino
In regards to this trade my feelings on it (good and bad) balance out. On the positive side....he is a versitale pitcher who can help an effective but overworked bullpen......he has experience as a starting pitcher (something this team desperately needs) and the Brewers didn't give up too much to get him.......
On the flip side.....this dude is not going to single-handedly turn around this team's season....he's definitely not C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay (or even a Jarrod Washburn/Doug Davis type).....he did pitch for the Brew Crew back in 2007. He did go 11-6 but that had more to do with good run support as he had a 5.09 ERA and 88 ERA+.....pretty much, I wasn't sad to see him go when he got cut....but in light of this team's pitcher shortcomings I can definitely live with this trade.............
Speaking of the Crew.....their game is in the 4rd inning right now (7-1 Brewers!!!!)......they're playing in San Diego.....it feels weird having to wait till 7 for their games to begin but with this series and next weeks series against the Dodgers it will be something I have to get used to for the next six days or so........
Friday, July 31, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Weekend Preview: The Post-Trade Deadline Addition
Another weekend is upon us which means another preview of this weekend's televised Baseball action.....games are ranked 1-5 based on the compelling-ness of the match-up
Saturday FOX Afternoon (Regional)
Yankees (Burnett) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2
Yankees......zzzzzz......wake me in the playoffs. White Sox.....lucky for them they are playing in a weak AL Central and sit only 3 games out despite struggling most of the season.
Expect Good Games Out of: Paul Konerko, Jorge Posada
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Jeter
Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Braves (Lowe) = 3
Dodgers are crusing through the NL West. Braves have been up and down this year and have ex-Dodger Derek Lowe pitching for them.
Expect Good Game Out of: Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Juan Pierre
Royals (TBD) vs. Rays (Niemann) =1
Decent Rays team fighting for wild-card against a Royals team that has taken up permanent residency as irrelevents.....to think it was only may when the Royals were in first and the Onion wrote an article about the Royals not being able to find themselves in the standings
Expect Good Game out of: Jeff Niemann
Don't Expect Good Game out of: The Royals
Saturday night MLB Game
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) =4
Sure these teams aren't great but this game does carry pennant race implications. The Cards are tied for the Cubs for first while the Astros are tied with the Brewers at 4 games out of first.....the Astros might be the weaker team on paper but they do tend to play really well the last couple months of the year.....definitely the best game out of the televised action on Saturday.
Expect Good Games out of: Ivan Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Don't Expect Good Games out of: Miguel Tejada, Brendan Ryan
Sunday TBS Game:
Phillies (Hamels) vs. Giants (Zito) =3.5
Potential playoff preview. The Phillies just acquired Cliff Lee for a lot less than what the Blue Jays were asking....the Phillies (along with the Dodgers) look to be the teams to beat in the National League...the Giants suprising season plugs along as they are clinging on to the Wild Card lead.....Ryan Garko may not be Cliff Lee but he should make a positive impact in the starting line up
Expect Good Games Out of: Jimmy Rollins
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: Bengie Molina, Raul Ibanez
Dodgers (Billingsley) vs. Braves (Jurrgens) = 3.5
Good weekend ending match-up. Sold starter in Billingsley versus Jair Jurrjens who is quietly having a much better season (155 ERA+) than his 9-7 record would indicate
Expect Good Game Out of: Jair Jurrjens
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Ryan Church
Saturday FOX Afternoon (Regional)
Yankees (Burnett) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2
Yankees......zzzzzz......wake me in the playoffs. White Sox.....lucky for them they are playing in a weak AL Central and sit only 3 games out despite struggling most of the season.
Expect Good Games Out of: Paul Konerko, Jorge Posada
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Jeter
Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Braves (Lowe) = 3
Dodgers are crusing through the NL West. Braves have been up and down this year and have ex-Dodger Derek Lowe pitching for them.
Expect Good Game Out of: Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Juan Pierre
Royals (TBD) vs. Rays (Niemann) =1
Decent Rays team fighting for wild-card against a Royals team that has taken up permanent residency as irrelevents.....to think it was only may when the Royals were in first and the Onion wrote an article about the Royals not being able to find themselves in the standings
Expect Good Game out of: Jeff Niemann
Don't Expect Good Game out of: The Royals
Saturday night MLB Game
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) =4
Sure these teams aren't great but this game does carry pennant race implications. The Cards are tied for the Cubs for first while the Astros are tied with the Brewers at 4 games out of first.....the Astros might be the weaker team on paper but they do tend to play really well the last couple months of the year.....definitely the best game out of the televised action on Saturday.
Expect Good Games out of: Ivan Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Don't Expect Good Games out of: Miguel Tejada, Brendan Ryan
Sunday TBS Game:
Phillies (Hamels) vs. Giants (Zito) =3.5
Potential playoff preview. The Phillies just acquired Cliff Lee for a lot less than what the Blue Jays were asking....the Phillies (along with the Dodgers) look to be the teams to beat in the National League...the Giants suprising season plugs along as they are clinging on to the Wild Card lead.....Ryan Garko may not be Cliff Lee but he should make a positive impact in the starting line up
Expect Good Games Out of: Jimmy Rollins
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: Bengie Molina, Raul Ibanez
Dodgers (Billingsley) vs. Braves (Jurrgens) = 3.5
Good weekend ending match-up. Sold starter in Billingsley versus Jair Jurrjens who is quietly having a much better season (155 ERA+) than his 9-7 record would indicate
Expect Good Game Out of: Jair Jurrjens
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Ryan Church
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
The W-5: They're Hall of Fame Eligible? Um thats nice...I guess
So the last couple of days I've contemplated what I was going to discuss on the W-5....initially it was my take on trade season (but since I sorta did that last week that was scrapped out).....i thought about other Hall of Fame discussions (i.e. who will get inducted ......who's not in the Hall of Fame but should be).....but I decided to take it in another direction.......
I looked on wikipedia on there is a page for Baseball Hall of Fame Balloting 2010 which had some names of several players who are only getting into the Hall of Fame if they pay cover charge.....and here are the five most likely headed to this fate
1-Todd Van Poppel 40-52 5.58 80 ERA+
Known more for being picked ahead of Chipper Jones than any on field accomplishments. Had a couple decent years as a middle reliever but also had 10+ unmemorable years.....i'm pretty sure the A's wished they had picked Chipper
2-Jimmy Haynes 63-89 5.37 83 ERA+
Had a couple unmemorable years for a couple of atrocious early 2000s Brewers team. His Baseball Reference page shows that he was just as bad as I remember him.
3-Brook Fordyce .258/.309/.388 82 OPS+
Medoicre Numbers + Playing >100 games twice in his career= no Cooperstown for you.
4-Josias Manzanillo 13-15 4.71 ERA 93 OPS+
Considering that players connected to steroids and/or the Mitchell Report who had MUCH better careers than Manzanillo are not getting into the Hall of Fame.....i'm pretty sure mediocre middle relievers that Kurt Radomski saw doing steroids first hand (the only player he actually witnessed doing them) i'm pretty sure he ain't getting in.....although as a consolation prize he does get bumped down to only the 4th least likely for taking a Manny Ramirez line drive to the groin (without wearing a cup) to come back and play for six more years.
5-Darren Bragg .255/.340/.381m 85 OPS+
He got traded straight up for Jamie Moyer once. His 8th most similar player career wise is R.J. Reynolds---yes there was a player in the 80s with the same name as a notorious tobacco company......but oddly enough I can't think of too much to say about him.........
I looked on wikipedia on there is a page for Baseball Hall of Fame Balloting 2010 which had some names of several players who are only getting into the Hall of Fame if they pay cover charge.....and here are the five most likely headed to this fate
1-Todd Van Poppel 40-52 5.58 80 ERA+
Known more for being picked ahead of Chipper Jones than any on field accomplishments. Had a couple decent years as a middle reliever but also had 10+ unmemorable years.....i'm pretty sure the A's wished they had picked Chipper
2-Jimmy Haynes 63-89 5.37 83 ERA+
Had a couple unmemorable years for a couple of atrocious early 2000s Brewers team. His Baseball Reference page shows that he was just as bad as I remember him.
3-Brook Fordyce .258/.309/.388 82 OPS+
Medoicre Numbers + Playing >100 games twice in his career= no Cooperstown for you.
4-Josias Manzanillo 13-15 4.71 ERA 93 OPS+
Considering that players connected to steroids and/or the Mitchell Report who had MUCH better careers than Manzanillo are not getting into the Hall of Fame.....i'm pretty sure mediocre middle relievers that Kurt Radomski saw doing steroids first hand (the only player he actually witnessed doing them) i'm pretty sure he ain't getting in.....although as a consolation prize he does get bumped down to only the 4th least likely for taking a Manny Ramirez line drive to the groin (without wearing a cup) to come back and play for six more years.
5-Darren Bragg .255/.340/.381m 85 OPS+
He got traded straight up for Jamie Moyer once. His 8th most similar player career wise is R.J. Reynolds---yes there was a player in the 80s with the same name as a notorious tobacco company......but oddly enough I can't think of too much to say about him.........
Monday, July 27, 2009
Ryan Garko trade + wild card implications
The Giants took a step towards addressing their hitting issues by acquiring Ryan Garko from the Indians for a Class A Pitcher
While I was incorrect in thinking the bat they would pick up would be Adam Dunn, it has been more or less inevitable that the Giants would go looking for an extra bat ever since they played their way into contention about a month ago.....while he's not going to be an MVP player anytime soon (the only stat he's been in the top 10 for is HBP he is a solid hitter hitting at a .285/.362/.424 114 OPS+ that can provide protection for Pablo Sandoval in the Giants line up.......on a side note I do feel bad for the fan sponsoring his baseball-reference page since the sponsor was looking forward to many at-bats for Garko as a member of the Indians
With the Giants 1 1/5 behind the Rockies in the Wild Card chase..any help (especially at the bat) is conducive to the Giants playoff hopes.....regardless of where they play him (first base--his primary position) or the outfield (where he played occasionally) he's definitely an improvement since the Giants starting first baseman (Ishikawa) and two of their outfielders (Lewis and Winn) are both hitting below average this year.......overall, a good smart trade for the Giants....they improve their offense without having to give up too much
It looks like it's a good day to be a Giants fan as in addition to this trade, Tim Lincecum is pitching a gem and dominating enough to trigger a MLB special alert as he's struck out 10 batters in the first five innings........while it's still far from guaranteed the Giants will make the playoffs (coolstandings.com has their odds at 23.3%) , if they do find their way in that pitching staff headed by Lincecum and Cain gives the Giants a real chance to do some serious damage if they get in
While I was incorrect in thinking the bat they would pick up would be Adam Dunn, it has been more or less inevitable that the Giants would go looking for an extra bat ever since they played their way into contention about a month ago.....while he's not going to be an MVP player anytime soon (the only stat he's been in the top 10 for is HBP he is a solid hitter hitting at a .285/.362/.424 114 OPS+ that can provide protection for Pablo Sandoval in the Giants line up.......on a side note I do feel bad for the fan sponsoring his baseball-reference page since the sponsor was looking forward to many at-bats for Garko as a member of the Indians
With the Giants 1 1/5 behind the Rockies in the Wild Card chase..any help (especially at the bat) is conducive to the Giants playoff hopes.....regardless of where they play him (first base--his primary position) or the outfield (where he played occasionally) he's definitely an improvement since the Giants starting first baseman (Ishikawa) and two of their outfielders (Lewis and Winn) are both hitting below average this year.......overall, a good smart trade for the Giants....they improve their offense without having to give up too much
It looks like it's a good day to be a Giants fan as in addition to this trade, Tim Lincecum is pitching a gem and dominating enough to trigger a MLB special alert as he's struck out 10 batters in the first five innings........while it's still far from guaranteed the Giants will make the playoffs (coolstandings.com has their odds at 23.3%) , if they do find their way in that pitching staff headed by Lincecum and Cain gives the Giants a real chance to do some serious damage if they get in
Worst Game of the Year......In Progress
This is definitely one of shorter posts.....Brewers down by a touchdown to the WORST team in the league (Nationals)......Jeff Suppan overcoming the fact that he makes $10 million a year to get rocked for 8 runs......Josh Willingham hits two grand slams.....Jody Gerut hit an RBI double but goes on to get thrown at home plate with his team down 13-6........definitely not the smartest move when your hitting .133 and you have an OPS+ of -9 (not sure how that's possible but baseball reference never lies).......well the Brewers being in contention was fun while it lasted......hopefully they can field a decent team in '10
Sunday, July 26, 2009
What Rickey Henderson tells us about future HOF Voting
Now, time to give Ricky Henderson the same treatment:
Similar Players Already in:
Paul Molitor
Lou Brock
Joe Morgan
Robin Yount
Al Kaline
The similars not yet in are
Craig Biggio .281/.363/.433 111 OPS+ career
Looking at his numbers, they were a bit lower than I expected. However, he was one of the better players on the Astros for many seasons. He does have a case as his 7 all-star selections shows he was amongst the better players and he is above average on 2 of the 4 HOF monitor indexes......there's still time for people to make up their minds about him since he doesn't come up for voting until 2013
Eventual HOFer---just not on first ballot
Rusty Staub .279/.362/.431 124 OPS+
Played a bit before my time....don't know too much about his career...in the context of the pitcher friendly 60s his 292 career homers look good...had a couple seasons of 150 OPS+...but not enough to get into Cooperstown
Unlikely HOFer
Steve Finley .271/.332/.442 104 OPS+
Pretty average hitter much of his career......developed more pop in his bat in the late 90s(then again who didn't
Unlikely HOFer
Tim Raines .294/.365/.425 123 OPS+
Not the most powerful hitter...but outside of Henderson one of those players whose impact was substantially increased by his pitchers having to worry about him stealing a base
Should be a HOFer but probably won't get in for a while
Vada Pinson .286/.327/.442 110 OPS+
Solid Player, Solid Career....nothing overly noteworthy though
Unlikely HOFer
Like Jim Rice, there's not too much of a glimpse one can get into who will eventually get into the Hall of Fame based on his induction. In Henderson's case....it's more due to him being a unique talent and player (especially on the base paths) than Rice's case where there was a compelling argument for and against his induction...........
Similar Players Already in:
Paul Molitor
Lou Brock
Joe Morgan
Robin Yount
Al Kaline
The similars not yet in are
Craig Biggio .281/.363/.433 111 OPS+ career
Looking at his numbers, they were a bit lower than I expected. However, he was one of the better players on the Astros for many seasons. He does have a case as his 7 all-star selections shows he was amongst the better players and he is above average on 2 of the 4 HOF monitor indexes......there's still time for people to make up their minds about him since he doesn't come up for voting until 2013
Eventual HOFer---just not on first ballot
Rusty Staub .279/.362/.431 124 OPS+
Played a bit before my time....don't know too much about his career...in the context of the pitcher friendly 60s his 292 career homers look good...had a couple seasons of 150 OPS+...but not enough to get into Cooperstown
Unlikely HOFer
Steve Finley .271/.332/.442 104 OPS+
Pretty average hitter much of his career......developed more pop in his bat in the late 90s(then again who didn't
Unlikely HOFer
Tim Raines .294/.365/.425 123 OPS+
Not the most powerful hitter...but outside of Henderson one of those players whose impact was substantially increased by his pitchers having to worry about him stealing a base
Should be a HOFer but probably won't get in for a while
Vada Pinson .286/.327/.442 110 OPS+
Solid Player, Solid Career....nothing overly noteworthy though
Unlikely HOFer
Like Jim Rice, there's not too much of a glimpse one can get into who will eventually get into the Hall of Fame based on his induction. In Henderson's case....it's more due to him being a unique talent and player (especially on the base paths) than Rice's case where there was a compelling argument for and against his induction...........
Hall of Fame--what this year tells us (if any) about future classes: Jim Rice
In light of Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice being inducted into the hall of fame...I decided to look and see what (if anything) their induction indicates about other players who may or may not have a chance to get in. With both of these players, I based this information off of their baseball-reference pages....specifically the part towards the bottom where it shows the 10 players most similar to them statistically......for no particular reason Jim Rice will get examined first....also, I examined the black ink, gray ink, hall of fame monitor and hall of fame standards categories where I feel that it enhances the discussion.
Out of the 10 players most similar to rice the following are hall-of-famers:
Orlando Cepeda
Duke Snider
Billy Williams
Willie Stargell
Next, on to the remaining similar players and whether they have a chance of being inducted to the hall of fame one day...
Andres Galaraga .288/.347/.499 118 OPS+ Career
Out of the Hall of Fame statistic metrics on baseball-reference, Galaraga is only above the HOF--average in one of them...Also, he had his best years a) in the 90s when power numbers were inflated b) out of 5 best years...4 of them were with the Rockies where the high elevation leads to inflated power numbers.....good player but these two factors make him look like a better player than he was....we'll begin to know if the HOF writers agree on this one when he becomes eligible in 2010
Un-Likely HOF
Ellis Burks .291/.363/.510 126 OPS+
If he hadn't of been as injury prone (he only played more than 150 games twice in his career)...maybe some of his numbers would merit further consideration. Like Galaraga, he did benefit from playing in Colorado....however, he does have an edge over his former teammate as he was able to maintain his power numbers for longer after leaving the Rockies.....this helps, just not enough to get in
Un-Likely HOF
Joe Carter .259/.306/.464 105 OPS+
The further down this most similar players list...the easier it is to see why there was so much dispute over whether or not to make Rice a hall of famer.....Carter's is of course remembered mostly for his World Series winning home run off of Mitch Williams.....otherwise he was a consistent power hitter whose overall value to his team is undermined by ghastly on-base percentage
Definitely not HOF material
Dave Parker .290/.339/.471 121 OPS+
Un-like Carter, Parker has at least somewhat of an argument.....he put up his numbers in an era that wasn't as power friendly as the 90s.....one look at the HOF statistic monitors at baseball-reference show that Parker's offensive numbers are average in the context of current hall of famers...still when he went up for voting in the late 90s he was getting about 20 percent of the vote...he may or may not get in but it won't be for at least several years
HOF--Veterans Committee Several Years Down the Road
Moises Alou .303/.369/.516 128 OPS+
Doesn't come up for voting until at least '14....had the same career OPS+ as Rice at 128....personally I have some bias in favor of Alou due to his higher batting and on-base average even if no one's really mentioned him as one of the greater players of this generation....unfortunately a look at the HOF monitor statistics show's that Alou fell way too short to get his shrine at Cooperstown.....if I had a vote i'd at least consider voting for him but I don't see him getting in
HOF Unlikely
Chili Davis .274/.360/.451 120 OPS+
Continuing on the theme of similar but non-hall of fame players numerically related to Jim Rice, Chili Davis is another player that had a strong, solid above average career but falls way short of hall of fame consideration
HOF Unlikely
What Jim Rice being in the Hall of Fame says about the future: not too much looking at this breakdown it is easy to see why it took Rice longer to get into the hall of fame......while all of the players on the similar list had long, steady careers Rice fell squarely in the middle.....the ones who did get enough to go to Cooperstown are already there.....the one's who haven't are unlikely to join him
Out of the 10 players most similar to rice the following are hall-of-famers:
Orlando Cepeda
Duke Snider
Billy Williams
Willie Stargell
Next, on to the remaining similar players and whether they have a chance of being inducted to the hall of fame one day...
Andres Galaraga .288/.347/.499 118 OPS+ Career
Out of the Hall of Fame statistic metrics on baseball-reference, Galaraga is only above the HOF--average in one of them...Also, he had his best years a) in the 90s when power numbers were inflated b) out of 5 best years...4 of them were with the Rockies where the high elevation leads to inflated power numbers.....good player but these two factors make him look like a better player than he was....we'll begin to know if the HOF writers agree on this one when he becomes eligible in 2010
Un-Likely HOF
Ellis Burks .291/.363/.510 126 OPS+
If he hadn't of been as injury prone (he only played more than 150 games twice in his career)...maybe some of his numbers would merit further consideration. Like Galaraga, he did benefit from playing in Colorado....however, he does have an edge over his former teammate as he was able to maintain his power numbers for longer after leaving the Rockies.....this helps, just not enough to get in
Un-Likely HOF
Joe Carter .259/.306/.464 105 OPS+
The further down this most similar players list...the easier it is to see why there was so much dispute over whether or not to make Rice a hall of famer.....Carter's is of course remembered mostly for his World Series winning home run off of Mitch Williams.....otherwise he was a consistent power hitter whose overall value to his team is undermined by ghastly on-base percentage
Definitely not HOF material
Dave Parker .290/.339/.471 121 OPS+
Un-like Carter, Parker has at least somewhat of an argument.....he put up his numbers in an era that wasn't as power friendly as the 90s.....one look at the HOF statistic monitors at baseball-reference show that Parker's offensive numbers are average in the context of current hall of famers...still when he went up for voting in the late 90s he was getting about 20 percent of the vote...he may or may not get in but it won't be for at least several years
HOF--Veterans Committee Several Years Down the Road
Moises Alou .303/.369/.516 128 OPS+
Doesn't come up for voting until at least '14....had the same career OPS+ as Rice at 128....personally I have some bias in favor of Alou due to his higher batting and on-base average even if no one's really mentioned him as one of the greater players of this generation....unfortunately a look at the HOF monitor statistics show's that Alou fell way too short to get his shrine at Cooperstown.....if I had a vote i'd at least consider voting for him but I don't see him getting in
HOF Unlikely
Chili Davis .274/.360/.451 120 OPS+
Continuing on the theme of similar but non-hall of fame players numerically related to Jim Rice, Chili Davis is another player that had a strong, solid above average career but falls way short of hall of fame consideration
HOF Unlikely
What Jim Rice being in the Hall of Fame says about the future: not too much looking at this breakdown it is easy to see why it took Rice longer to get into the hall of fame......while all of the players on the similar list had long, steady careers Rice fell squarely in the middle.....the ones who did get enough to go to Cooperstown are already there.....the one's who haven't are unlikely to join him
Thursday, July 23, 2009
The Weekend Ahead: Unlikely to top Buerhle
Before I get started on the weekend preview I would like to take some space to congratulate Mark Buerhle on his perfect game and DeWayne Wise for making this catch
With that said lets the games begin.........
As always games are rated from 1 to 5 with 1 being borderline-unwatchable and 5 being must-see tv.....i've also added a new feature to this the expect/don't expect a good game out of feature......these predictions are based off of players career numbers against the starting pitchers....this info is found on baseball-reference.com
Saturday---FOX
Cardinals (Lohse) vs. Phillies (Lopez) =3.5
Possible playoff preview as both teams are in first place. This game is definitely more important for the Cards than the Phils since they have the Brew Crew, Astros and Cubs are chomping at the bit for their spot at the top while the Phils have gotten a comfortable distance from the rest of the NL East.......Rodrigo Lopez has been pitching suprisingly well this year and provided he's able to pitch around Pujols the Phils should win this one
Expect a good game out of: Ryan Howard
Don't expect a good game out of: Jimmy Rollins
Twins (Blackburn) vs. Angels (TBD)= 3.5
Another possible (but not) likely playoff preview. Blackburn is having a nice year but he has two things going against him. 1) The Angels are the better team 2) The Angels hit very well against Blackburn
Expect a good game out of: Chone Figgins
Don't expect a good game out of Nick Blackburn
White Sox (Floyd) vs. Tigers (Jackson) =4
This is bound to be a good game. Both teams come into this weekend tied for 1st place with each other....I could easily see either team winning....the Tigers because they always have a chance to win with Edwin Jackson winning but i'm picking the White Sox here since I see them carrying the momentum from Buerhle's perfect game through at least the weekend.
Expect a good game out of: Jim Thome
Don't expect a good game out of: Miguel Cabrera
Saturday night MLB Network--
Giants (Sanchez) vs. Rockies (De La Rosa)= 4
Another close intense match-up. The Rockies currently lead the Giants in the wild card by a game so this series could be the difference between the playoffs and no playoffs this year. This one could go either way because I don't like Jorge de la Rosa (having a 6.23 ERA in 61 career games for the Brewers will do that)
Expect a good game out of: Chris Ianneta
Don't Expect a good game out of: Aaron Rowand
Sunday TBS
Phillies (Blanton) vs. Cardinals (Wellemeyer) =3
Decent match-up......possible play-off preview....Phils win this one
Expect a good game out of: Mark DeRosa
Don't Expect a good game out of: Jimmy Rollins
Sunday Night Baseball
White Sox (Danks) vs. Tigers (Porcello) =4
Good Pitching Match-Up....Two teams fighting for first.....couldn't ask for too much more...if it was later in the season this would have been bumped to a 4.5 or 5....Sox win this one
Expect a good game out of: Magglio Ordonez
Don't expect a good game out of: Curtis Granderson
With that said lets the games begin.........
As always games are rated from 1 to 5 with 1 being borderline-unwatchable and 5 being must-see tv.....i've also added a new feature to this the expect/don't expect a good game out of feature......these predictions are based off of players career numbers against the starting pitchers....this info is found on baseball-reference.com
Saturday---FOX
Cardinals (Lohse) vs. Phillies (Lopez) =3.5
Possible playoff preview as both teams are in first place. This game is definitely more important for the Cards than the Phils since they have the Brew Crew, Astros and Cubs are chomping at the bit for their spot at the top while the Phils have gotten a comfortable distance from the rest of the NL East.......Rodrigo Lopez has been pitching suprisingly well this year and provided he's able to pitch around Pujols the Phils should win this one
Expect a good game out of: Ryan Howard
Don't expect a good game out of: Jimmy Rollins
Twins (Blackburn) vs. Angels (TBD)= 3.5
Another possible (but not) likely playoff preview. Blackburn is having a nice year but he has two things going against him. 1) The Angels are the better team 2) The Angels hit very well against Blackburn
Expect a good game out of: Chone Figgins
Don't expect a good game out of Nick Blackburn
White Sox (Floyd) vs. Tigers (Jackson) =4
This is bound to be a good game. Both teams come into this weekend tied for 1st place with each other....I could easily see either team winning....the Tigers because they always have a chance to win with Edwin Jackson winning but i'm picking the White Sox here since I see them carrying the momentum from Buerhle's perfect game through at least the weekend.
Expect a good game out of: Jim Thome
Don't expect a good game out of: Miguel Cabrera
Saturday night MLB Network--
Giants (Sanchez) vs. Rockies (De La Rosa)= 4
Another close intense match-up. The Rockies currently lead the Giants in the wild card by a game so this series could be the difference between the playoffs and no playoffs this year. This one could go either way because I don't like Jorge de la Rosa (having a 6.23 ERA in 61 career games for the Brewers will do that)
Expect a good game out of: Chris Ianneta
Don't Expect a good game out of: Aaron Rowand
Sunday TBS
Phillies (Blanton) vs. Cardinals (Wellemeyer) =3
Decent match-up......possible play-off preview....Phils win this one
Expect a good game out of: Mark DeRosa
Don't Expect a good game out of: Jimmy Rollins
Sunday Night Baseball
White Sox (Danks) vs. Tigers (Porcello) =4
Good Pitching Match-Up....Two teams fighting for first.....couldn't ask for too much more...if it was later in the season this would have been bumped to a 4.5 or 5....Sox win this one
Expect a good game out of: Magglio Ordonez
Don't expect a good game out of: Curtis Granderson
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
The Wednesday Five: Reactions to the LaRoche trade
Today the Red Sox made news by getting Adam LaRoche from the Pirates for a couple of minor leaguers
My five reactions to this are:
1) Which Pirates player will be openly critical of the next lopsided trade?
When Nate McLouth got traded in June, Adam LaRoche was highly vocal, questioning management's motives over trading him while the team still had a fighting chance (they were 6 1/2 games behind at the time).......i'm pretty sure if another starter got traded (i.e. Sanchez, Wilson, etc)...LaRoche probably would have vented some frustration over the trade (even though they are 10 games under .500 ...they are still only 8 1/2 out.....) who picks up this role for the Pirates? well does it matter? they obviously didn't get the memo that even if your a small-market team you can still contend if you have smart enough people running the show
2) Where is Adam LaRoche going to get his At-Bats?
On this angle, its tough to see where the trade makes sense for the Sox. Likely, Laroche would be getting his ABs from either 1st or DH..1st base seems out of the question since Kevin Youkilis is putting up better numbers than LaRoche (.303/.418/.574 150 OPS+ for Youk vs. .247/.329/.441) or DH where David Ortiz has struggled this year to .224/.313/.413 84 OPS+ but it's unlikely he'd lose a lot of playing time since Big Papi is still a more imposing and intimidating hitter than LaRoche, even though Ortiz is having a down year. Pretty much, gut instinct says LaRoche is the odd man out from this angle.
3) If something happens with Youkilis and/or Ortiz and they need him to start....this trade is going to look very good for the Red Sox....
For much of his career Adam LaRoche the 1st half hitter and Adam LaRoche the second half hitter have been two different entities... the 1st half hitter hits 12% below the league average....the second half version has an 118 OPS+ for the second half in his career (which is equivalent to what players such as Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko have done in their careers)
Point being the Sox get to skip out on the mediocre version of LaRoche and are likely to get the effective second-half version of LaRoche for the stretch run.....plus the last time the Sox got a Pirates player at the deadline (Jason Bay) things turned out pretty good for them
4) This trade is but an example of why the Sox win consistently
While the Red Sox were not in urgent need of a 1b/DH type, obviouslly they felt he could improve their team and help them between now and the end of October...while that may be in a reduced role.....he can hit and has demonstrated the ability to hit well in the post-season (albeit in a small 30 AB sample size .320/.433/.640
Pretty much, the Red Sox spent money to improve a strong (albeit struggling) team.......
5) It is also an example of why the Pirates never win consistently
The way the Pirates have been un-loading stars this year and other years explains why they consistently lose 90+ games a year. Even this year with nobody taking the NL Central by the horns and the Pirates still being less than 10 games out....the way they are trading players it is clear they are still in the middle of a perpetual rebuilding cycle......but they at least they can hang their head on taking 2 out of 3 from the Brewers (but then again who hasn't taken 2 out of 3 from the Brewers)
My five reactions to this are:
1) Which Pirates player will be openly critical of the next lopsided trade?
When Nate McLouth got traded in June, Adam LaRoche was highly vocal, questioning management's motives over trading him while the team still had a fighting chance (they were 6 1/2 games behind at the time).......i'm pretty sure if another starter got traded (i.e. Sanchez, Wilson, etc)...LaRoche probably would have vented some frustration over the trade (even though they are 10 games under .500 ...they are still only 8 1/2 out.....) who picks up this role for the Pirates? well does it matter? they obviously didn't get the memo that even if your a small-market team you can still contend if you have smart enough people running the show
2) Where is Adam LaRoche going to get his At-Bats?
On this angle, its tough to see where the trade makes sense for the Sox. Likely, Laroche would be getting his ABs from either 1st or DH..1st base seems out of the question since Kevin Youkilis is putting up better numbers than LaRoche (.303/.418/.574 150 OPS+ for Youk vs. .247/.329/.441) or DH where David Ortiz has struggled this year to .224/.313/.413 84 OPS+ but it's unlikely he'd lose a lot of playing time since Big Papi is still a more imposing and intimidating hitter than LaRoche, even though Ortiz is having a down year. Pretty much, gut instinct says LaRoche is the odd man out from this angle.
3) If something happens with Youkilis and/or Ortiz and they need him to start....this trade is going to look very good for the Red Sox....
For much of his career Adam LaRoche the 1st half hitter and Adam LaRoche the second half hitter have been two different entities... the 1st half hitter hits 12% below the league average....the second half version has an 118 OPS+ for the second half in his career (which is equivalent to what players such as Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko have done in their careers)
Point being the Sox get to skip out on the mediocre version of LaRoche and are likely to get the effective second-half version of LaRoche for the stretch run.....plus the last time the Sox got a Pirates player at the deadline (Jason Bay) things turned out pretty good for them
4) This trade is but an example of why the Sox win consistently
While the Red Sox were not in urgent need of a 1b/DH type, obviouslly they felt he could improve their team and help them between now and the end of October...while that may be in a reduced role.....he can hit and has demonstrated the ability to hit well in the post-season (albeit in a small 30 AB sample size .320/.433/.640
Pretty much, the Red Sox spent money to improve a strong (albeit struggling) team.......
5) It is also an example of why the Pirates never win consistently
The way the Pirates have been un-loading stars this year and other years explains why they consistently lose 90+ games a year. Even this year with nobody taking the NL Central by the horns and the Pirates still being less than 10 games out....the way they are trading players it is clear they are still in the middle of a perpetual rebuilding cycle......but they at least they can hang their head on taking 2 out of 3 from the Brewers (but then again who hasn't taken 2 out of 3 from the Brewers)
Monday, July 20, 2009
Playoffs?! Don't talk about Playoffs: I just hope they can win a game
Watching the Brewers play tonight makes me think about Jim Mora's infamous playoffs rant.
Substitute the five turnovers part for leaving a bunch of runners on base and getting schooled by the Pirates.....and that's pretty much how I'm feeling about 2009 baseball season these days.
Having Felipe Lopez is good (he's 3 for 3 as a Brewer as of this writing)....having nobody else playing well, not so much. As always they regress to hitting at a Double-A level whenever anyone gets into scoring position. Mike Burns gave up 6 runs........to the Pirates....not the 1927 Yankees, the chronically rebuilding last place Pirates. It's one thing when this happens against a good or even mediocre team...i thought I could at least count on them playing good against the Pirates (they're doing everything they can to snap a 17 game win streak against them)......but this is disgraceful....even with Burns' struggles on the mound......with the opportunities the Brewers have had in tonight's game they should have more than 2 runs.....well if they actually got hits instead of hitting into double plays
Literally, I would be pulling hair out of my head if I had any left. Nights like this make me convinced I'll never see the Brewers play in the world series.
On a bright note St. Louis and San Francisco both lost so if this game holds up the Crew will still be 3 back in the central in 3 1/2 in the wild card. So, there is still some hope of the Crew getting it together and having a legitimate shot at the playoffs.....but if I've learned one thing being a Brewers fan is to expect the worst because that happens more often than not.
Substitute the five turnovers part for leaving a bunch of runners on base and getting schooled by the Pirates.....and that's pretty much how I'm feeling about 2009 baseball season these days.
Having Felipe Lopez is good (he's 3 for 3 as a Brewer as of this writing)....having nobody else playing well, not so much. As always they regress to hitting at a Double-A level whenever anyone gets into scoring position. Mike Burns gave up 6 runs........to the Pirates....not the 1927 Yankees, the chronically rebuilding last place Pirates. It's one thing when this happens against a good or even mediocre team...i thought I could at least count on them playing good against the Pirates (they're doing everything they can to snap a 17 game win streak against them)......but this is disgraceful....even with Burns' struggles on the mound......with the opportunities the Brewers have had in tonight's game they should have more than 2 runs.....well if they actually got hits instead of hitting into double plays
Literally, I would be pulling hair out of my head if I had any left. Nights like this make me convinced I'll never see the Brewers play in the world series.
On a bright note St. Louis and San Francisco both lost so if this game holds up the Crew will still be 3 back in the central in 3 1/2 in the wild card. So, there is still some hope of the Crew getting it together and having a legitimate shot at the playoffs.....but if I've learned one thing being a Brewers fan is to expect the worst because that happens more often than not.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Reaction to the Felipe Lopez Trade
The Brewers put their hat in the trade ring today by acquiring Felipe Lopez from the D-Backs for a couple minor leaguers.
While I would have preferred if they had gotten a starting pitcher from Arizona (Doug Davis), I still like the trade. Despite the Brewers struggles in the past month and a half, this trade proves that management has faith in this team and is willing to acquire players that can help the teams post-season hopes.
Point being, Lopez upgrades both the top of the line-up and the second base position. While Craig Counsell has filled-in admirably after Rickie Weeks went down for the season and is hitting better than normal, he has more value as a bench/platoon player than he does hitting first every day.
With Lopez the Brewers will get a decent average, a solid OBP and a little bit of pop in his bat (as evidenced by a .305/.368/.416 103 OPS+........the only draw-back to this trade is it makes it less likely that Casey McGehee will get into the starting line-up as he has played some second after the Weeks Injury......but that's a different rant for a different day
Either way, getting Lopez should infuse some fresh energy into this team and i'm looking forward to see what he can contribute to the Brewers pennant hopes........
While I would have preferred if they had gotten a starting pitcher from Arizona (Doug Davis), I still like the trade. Despite the Brewers struggles in the past month and a half, this trade proves that management has faith in this team and is willing to acquire players that can help the teams post-season hopes.
Point being, Lopez upgrades both the top of the line-up and the second base position. While Craig Counsell has filled-in admirably after Rickie Weeks went down for the season and is hitting better than normal, he has more value as a bench/platoon player than he does hitting first every day.
With Lopez the Brewers will get a decent average, a solid OBP and a little bit of pop in his bat (as evidenced by a .305/.368/.416 103 OPS+........the only draw-back to this trade is it makes it less likely that Casey McGehee will get into the starting line-up as he has played some second after the Weeks Injury......but that's a different rant for a different day
Either way, getting Lopez should infuse some fresh energy into this team and i'm looking forward to see what he can contribute to the Brewers pennant hopes........
Friday, July 17, 2009
The Chances of seeing another 500+ Save closer
Tonight while I was watching the Brewers lose due to an ungodly combination of bad defense, leaving the bases loaded (twice.....this especially annoys me to no end) and bad umpiring......they were doing one of those text polls about whether or not there will be another pitcher to get 500+ career saves (a feat that only Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera have achieved......since this hasn't been something I've examined closely...I decided now was a good time as any to do so.....
The Argument Against this happening:
First of all to get this many saves lots of things have to go right. First you have to be good for more than a few years .....Also you need to be really good for about 10-15 years and stay healthy during said 10-15 year stretch.
I remember when I was younger when only a few relievers even had 300 saves let alone 500. However, with the specialization of bullpens and pitchers such as Hoffman and Rivera being really good for a really long time, they successfully broke the 500 threshold.
Looking at this numerically, the first main argument is that many of the top active save leaders are on the back-end of their careers such as:
Billy Wagner- 385 Saves
First of all, it's unlikely Wagner will have a shot to even hit 400 saves. He's already out for the season with an injury. Also, if he comes back to the Mets next year, he is unlikely to get many save opportunities as K-Rod has dominated in the role of closer (more on him later). The only way he has a shot at 500 is to get a chance closing for another team. This seems unclear at beast since there's no way to tell if he still will be effective or get himself in a situation where he can rack up saves.
Troy Percival- 358 Saves
For Percival it's a matter of age and effectiveness. He's already retired once, costing him valuable time. While he has a better chance of getting some save opportunities he has two things going against him. First, he's days away from turning 40 so its unlikely he will still be pitching long enough. Second, he's just not been very good this year having a line of 0-1 6.35 ERA 6 Sv 71 ERA+ is one good way to guarantee that you won't get the chance to get very many saves....
Jason Isringhausen 293 Saves/Armando Benitez 289 Saves
Both pitchers are 36 and have an even lesser shot of 500 saves. Isringhausen pitched his way out of the closers role last year in St. Louis...he pitched 9 games in Tampa this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.....it's tough to determine whether he'll have a chance to close again let alone pitch again.
Benitez his days of closing are far behind him...hasn't saved more than 20 since '04....never really struck me as being that dominating anyways.
Francisco Cordero 232 Saves/Joe Nathan 223
Both are solid closers that will likely break 300, possibly 400. However, both are 34 and still need 265+ saves. It's not impossible but nothing less than a perfect storm of effectiveness, correct situation and holding on to the closers role well into their 40s is needed for these two to have the chance. Too much has to go right and something (if not everything) inevitably will go wrong between 232/223 and 500.
As you can see, it's not too out of the norm to rack up 200 or 300 career saves, but even many closers that enjoyed a nice productive streak have fallen short for one reason or another.
The Argument for someone getting 500 saves.
First of all, save opportunities are not going away anytime soon. Barring an unforeseen return to starters throwing 20+ complete games a year...there will be saves to be had.
Also, you never know what will happen. You could have someone who gets a closing job when they are in their early to mid 20s and blows past the 500 save barrier.
In terms of active players, K-Rod has conformed to this profile to date. He started closing at a young age (he racked his first 40+ save season at 23). Second, he's stayed healthy ( so far), dominant (so far) and in the midst of his 5th straight year of 40+ saves. Also, it never hurts to break the single-season record in process. Out of all active players, he has the best chance by far to get 500+ Save
Also, he's almost half-way there, he's young (27) and shows no signs of regression. Assuming he stays healthy, effective and keeps up his current pace he could break this barrier by the time he hits his mid-30s........
The Verdict
While too much can happen to K-Rod between now and 500 saves, it is more likely than not than another player will get 500+ career saves. There are plentiful save opportunities out there....it really is only a matter of time before a closer is able to combine this with talent, opportunity and a bit of luck to join Hoffman and Rivera in this exclusive club
The Argument Against this happening:
First of all to get this many saves lots of things have to go right. First you have to be good for more than a few years .....Also you need to be really good for about 10-15 years and stay healthy during said 10-15 year stretch.
I remember when I was younger when only a few relievers even had 300 saves let alone 500. However, with the specialization of bullpens and pitchers such as Hoffman and Rivera being really good for a really long time, they successfully broke the 500 threshold.
Looking at this numerically, the first main argument is that many of the top active save leaders are on the back-end of their careers such as:
Billy Wagner- 385 Saves
First of all, it's unlikely Wagner will have a shot to even hit 400 saves. He's already out for the season with an injury. Also, if he comes back to the Mets next year, he is unlikely to get many save opportunities as K-Rod has dominated in the role of closer (more on him later). The only way he has a shot at 500 is to get a chance closing for another team. This seems unclear at beast since there's no way to tell if he still will be effective or get himself in a situation where he can rack up saves.
Troy Percival- 358 Saves
For Percival it's a matter of age and effectiveness. He's already retired once, costing him valuable time. While he has a better chance of getting some save opportunities he has two things going against him. First, he's days away from turning 40 so its unlikely he will still be pitching long enough. Second, he's just not been very good this year having a line of 0-1 6.35 ERA 6 Sv 71 ERA+ is one good way to guarantee that you won't get the chance to get very many saves....
Jason Isringhausen 293 Saves/Armando Benitez 289 Saves
Both pitchers are 36 and have an even lesser shot of 500 saves. Isringhausen pitched his way out of the closers role last year in St. Louis...he pitched 9 games in Tampa this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.....it's tough to determine whether he'll have a chance to close again let alone pitch again.
Benitez his days of closing are far behind him...hasn't saved more than 20 since '04....never really struck me as being that dominating anyways.
Francisco Cordero 232 Saves/Joe Nathan 223
Both are solid closers that will likely break 300, possibly 400. However, both are 34 and still need 265+ saves. It's not impossible but nothing less than a perfect storm of effectiveness, correct situation and holding on to the closers role well into their 40s is needed for these two to have the chance. Too much has to go right and something (if not everything) inevitably will go wrong between 232/223 and 500.
As you can see, it's not too out of the norm to rack up 200 or 300 career saves, but even many closers that enjoyed a nice productive streak have fallen short for one reason or another.
The Argument for someone getting 500 saves.
First of all, save opportunities are not going away anytime soon. Barring an unforeseen return to starters throwing 20+ complete games a year...there will be saves to be had.
Also, you never know what will happen. You could have someone who gets a closing job when they are in their early to mid 20s and blows past the 500 save barrier.
In terms of active players, K-Rod has conformed to this profile to date. He started closing at a young age (he racked his first 40+ save season at 23). Second, he's stayed healthy ( so far), dominant (so far) and in the midst of his 5th straight year of 40+ saves. Also, it never hurts to break the single-season record in process. Out of all active players, he has the best chance by far to get 500+ Save
Also, he's almost half-way there, he's young (27) and shows no signs of regression. Assuming he stays healthy, effective and keeps up his current pace he could break this barrier by the time he hits his mid-30s........
The Verdict
While too much can happen to K-Rod between now and 500 saves, it is more likely than not than another player will get 500+ career saves. There are plentiful save opportunities out there....it really is only a matter of time before a closer is able to combine this with talent, opportunity and a bit of luck to join Hoffman and Rivera in this exclusive club
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Weekend Preview: Start of the second half
Well, the all-star break is over (thankfully) and the second part of this exciting baseball season is upon us. Also, the weekend is upon us which means another preview of all of the exciting (and not so exciting) action....as always the games are rated from 1 to 5 as follows
1=take a nap
2=if you got nothing better to do
3=worth at least a look
4=pretty compelling match up
5=must-see
Saturday:
Mets (Santana) vs. Braves (Kawakami) =3
First match up between these two teams since they consummated the epic Church for Francoeur trade. The Mets have their ace Johan Santana pitching for them against Kawakami who sometimes pitches like an ace....Both teams have underachieved this year (especially the Mets) and both teams need to get hot.....like now if they're going to have any legitimate post-season hopes....the Mets might be the more dysfunctional team but Santana will get them a win in this one
Orioles (Guthrie) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2
Decent pitching match-up, two pretty uninspiring teams. The O's have the pieces together to contend.....in a couple of years.....the White Sox still have a chance despite a mediocre first half as they are 3 1/2 back in a weak AL central. The Sox have the better team and better starter going Saturday...which means they'll win this one easily
Angels (Weaver) vs. Athletics (Mazzaro) =1
Hmm...first place team with their best pitcher going or some no-name pitcher on a last place team that will get even less attention and be worse once they inevitably trade Matt Holliday.....Angels in a blow out
Twins (Baker) vs. Rangers (Feldman)=2
A game with two teams who are quietly in contention. Both teams are solid, not too inspiring and are likely to fade from the pennant race at some point during the summer. Rangers win this one and hold off their fade for another day.
Sunday
Tigers (Verlander) vs. Yankees (TBD) =3.5
Possible play-off preview. Would have been rated higher but the Yankees are on more often than Every Loves Raymond reruns...which makes this a not as compelling match-up. This Tigers are surprisingly in first-place this year and having Justin Verlander as a staff ace helps this along. I usually rank Yankees games lower by default but Verlander alone is worth watching at least part of this game. The Tigers get one step closer to winning the title in this one and the Yankees loosen their grip on the wild card lead.
Mets (Nieve) vs. Braves (Vasquez) =2.5
Uninspiring match-up between two uninspiring teams. Javier Vasquez has been quietly dominant this year (he's been way better than his 6-7 record indicates) .....I see him having no trouble with the Mets depleted lineup....wouldn't be surprised if he completely dominates this game.
1=take a nap
2=if you got nothing better to do
3=worth at least a look
4=pretty compelling match up
5=must-see
Saturday:
Mets (Santana) vs. Braves (Kawakami) =3
First match up between these two teams since they consummated the epic Church for Francoeur trade. The Mets have their ace Johan Santana pitching for them against Kawakami who sometimes pitches like an ace....Both teams have underachieved this year (especially the Mets) and both teams need to get hot.....like now if they're going to have any legitimate post-season hopes....the Mets might be the more dysfunctional team but Santana will get them a win in this one
Orioles (Guthrie) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2
Decent pitching match-up, two pretty uninspiring teams. The O's have the pieces together to contend.....in a couple of years.....the White Sox still have a chance despite a mediocre first half as they are 3 1/2 back in a weak AL central. The Sox have the better team and better starter going Saturday...which means they'll win this one easily
Angels (Weaver) vs. Athletics (Mazzaro) =1
Hmm...first place team with their best pitcher going or some no-name pitcher on a last place team that will get even less attention and be worse once they inevitably trade Matt Holliday.....Angels in a blow out
Twins (Baker) vs. Rangers (Feldman)=2
A game with two teams who are quietly in contention. Both teams are solid, not too inspiring and are likely to fade from the pennant race at some point during the summer. Rangers win this one and hold off their fade for another day.
Sunday
Tigers (Verlander) vs. Yankees (TBD) =3.5
Possible play-off preview. Would have been rated higher but the Yankees are on more often than Every Loves Raymond reruns...which makes this a not as compelling match-up. This Tigers are surprisingly in first-place this year and having Justin Verlander as a staff ace helps this along. I usually rank Yankees games lower by default but Verlander alone is worth watching at least part of this game. The Tigers get one step closer to winning the title in this one and the Yankees loosen their grip on the wild card lead.
Mets (Nieve) vs. Braves (Vasquez) =2.5
Uninspiring match-up between two uninspiring teams. Javier Vasquez has been quietly dominant this year (he's been way better than his 6-7 record indicates) .....I see him having no trouble with the Mets depleted lineup....wouldn't be surprised if he completely dominates this game.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
The Wednesday Five: Today's All-Stars, Tomorrows Forgotten Player
The other night, I was watching a re-run of the 1995 All-Star Game on MLB Network and one thing struck me. A lot of the players in that game (or at least the part I watched) were players that I remember but not ones that ever struck me as being really great players. With players such as Carlos Perez, Heathcliff Slocumb, Mickey Morandini and Steve Ontiveros the phrase that continually popped into my head was "he played in an all-star game", it got me thinking about which players in this years all-star game will be players that will have fans wondering to themselves 10-15 years from now "he was an all-star"
1) Ryan Franklin: 53-67 4.09 ERA 106 ERA+
Franklin became an all-star for the first time at age 36 and with one look at his career, it is easy to say why. He was a slightly above average starter in Seattle who was serviceable but never great. He was a solid middle reliever until last year when he starting closing.
One indicator of this is while he's putting up ridiculous numbers, he has gone fairly unnoticed. Dude has a sub 1 ERA, a .794 WHIP and is giving up 5.3 hits/9 innings and even then I didn't even notice until a couple weeks ago.
Point being is that all of these stats are stratospheric in the context of his career work and he's bound to regress to something closer to his career average (which isn't bad but isn't eye-popping) either this year or next. I think he'll still pitch well the rest of the year but I don't feel he'll do enough the rest of his career for him to be remembered as a star.....(one great season is nice but when the pitcher with the most similar stats is Elmer Dessens, not too many people will remember you.
2) Yadier Molina- .265/.321/.363 79 OPS+ Career
I wouldn't be suprised if Molina is still catching 15 years from now, I just don't think people will remember him as an all-star. Looking into the future, his legacy his likely more connected to his defense (he is a Molina after all) but he hasn't done enough with the bat to guarantee further all-star trips. This year he has a 96 OPS+ batting (career high) and he's likely to peak out as an average hitter. He'll have a nice career, win some gold gloves, play some good D, I just don't think he'll do enough to be an elite player. His most similar player at this age is B.J. Surhoff.... he managed to hit for some power later in his career but that was from 1995-2001 when just about everyone hit for power.....in other words, I find it unlikely Molina will ever be that great with the bat
3) Jason Bartlett- .286/.345/.386 93 OPS+ Career
The AL-shortstop equivalent to Molina. He's always been a solid player with the glove and to have on the team and prior to this year had never quite cracked the 100 OPS+ threshold. Bartlett has a better chance since he's been a better hitter over the course of his career and he's having a career year at the plate this year. Even if his power stays at his current rate (best case scenario), he's most likely going to be overshadowed, under-rated and not remembered as an all-star. His most similar player is David Eckstein.....a player known more for being gritty(whatever that means) and being 5'6''....even there Bartlett will be overshadowed since Eckstein already has that market cornered on grittiness and Bartlett is 6'0''
4) Orlando Hudson- .282/.347/.432 99 OPS+ Career
Solid player....still mildly surprised he went yard twice the other day. That aside, he's seems to have settled into a groove of being a slightly above average hitter in most respects. Since he's 31, I don't really see him taking it to the next level. Hudson is more likely to be remembered more for his defense than being an all-star (sorta like Molina and Bartlett only with more pop in the bat)....his most similar hitter is Carlos Guillen (who is a 3-time all star) he at least has a better argument than the first three but still there isn't anything about him that screams All-Star
5) Shane Victorino- .286/.348/.424 OPS 99+ Career
Similar player to Hudson. I'll probably still remember him for that grand slam he hit off of Sabathia in the playoffs next year.....but it's more likely that his name will be overshadowed by other members of the Phils (i.e. Howard, Utley, Hamels, Rollins, etc.)
It's a stretch that he's even an all-star this year since he didn't get in until the 33rd man vote. Also out of the five players on the ballot, the only player he was more deserving than was Christian Guzman.....but hey that's what the people want.
His most similar player is Bernard Gilkey (who never was an all star, had one abnormal season where he hit 30 homers in 1996, and was done by 34) I think Victorino will have a better career than him but not enough to be remembered as a star.
Note: Career Stats and Similar Player Statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com
1) Ryan Franklin: 53-67 4.09 ERA 106 ERA+
Franklin became an all-star for the first time at age 36 and with one look at his career, it is easy to say why. He was a slightly above average starter in Seattle who was serviceable but never great. He was a solid middle reliever until last year when he starting closing.
One indicator of this is while he's putting up ridiculous numbers, he has gone fairly unnoticed. Dude has a sub 1 ERA, a .794 WHIP and is giving up 5.3 hits/9 innings and even then I didn't even notice until a couple weeks ago.
Point being is that all of these stats are stratospheric in the context of his career work and he's bound to regress to something closer to his career average (which isn't bad but isn't eye-popping) either this year or next. I think he'll still pitch well the rest of the year but I don't feel he'll do enough the rest of his career for him to be remembered as a star.....(one great season is nice but when the pitcher with the most similar stats is Elmer Dessens, not too many people will remember you.
2) Yadier Molina- .265/.321/.363 79 OPS+ Career
I wouldn't be suprised if Molina is still catching 15 years from now, I just don't think people will remember him as an all-star. Looking into the future, his legacy his likely more connected to his defense (he is a Molina after all) but he hasn't done enough with the bat to guarantee further all-star trips. This year he has a 96 OPS+ batting (career high) and he's likely to peak out as an average hitter. He'll have a nice career, win some gold gloves, play some good D, I just don't think he'll do enough to be an elite player. His most similar player at this age is B.J. Surhoff.... he managed to hit for some power later in his career but that was from 1995-2001 when just about everyone hit for power.....in other words, I find it unlikely Molina will ever be that great with the bat
3) Jason Bartlett- .286/.345/.386 93 OPS+ Career
The AL-shortstop equivalent to Molina. He's always been a solid player with the glove and to have on the team and prior to this year had never quite cracked the 100 OPS+ threshold. Bartlett has a better chance since he's been a better hitter over the course of his career and he's having a career year at the plate this year. Even if his power stays at his current rate (best case scenario), he's most likely going to be overshadowed, under-rated and not remembered as an all-star. His most similar player is David Eckstein.....a player known more for being gritty(whatever that means) and being 5'6''....even there Bartlett will be overshadowed since Eckstein already has that market cornered on grittiness and Bartlett is 6'0''
4) Orlando Hudson- .282/.347/.432 99 OPS+ Career
Solid player....still mildly surprised he went yard twice the other day. That aside, he's seems to have settled into a groove of being a slightly above average hitter in most respects. Since he's 31, I don't really see him taking it to the next level. Hudson is more likely to be remembered more for his defense than being an all-star (sorta like Molina and Bartlett only with more pop in the bat)....his most similar hitter is Carlos Guillen (who is a 3-time all star) he at least has a better argument than the first three but still there isn't anything about him that screams All-Star
5) Shane Victorino- .286/.348/.424 OPS 99+ Career
Similar player to Hudson. I'll probably still remember him for that grand slam he hit off of Sabathia in the playoffs next year.....but it's more likely that his name will be overshadowed by other members of the Phils (i.e. Howard, Utley, Hamels, Rollins, etc.)
It's a stretch that he's even an all-star this year since he didn't get in until the 33rd man vote. Also out of the five players on the ballot, the only player he was more deserving than was Christian Guzman.....but hey that's what the people want.
His most similar player is Bernard Gilkey (who never was an all star, had one abnormal season where he hit 30 homers in 1996, and was done by 34) I think Victorino will have a better career than him but not enough to be remembered as a star.
Note: Career Stats and Similar Player Statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com
Monday, July 13, 2009
Why? Cause it's easier than firing 25 players
Heading into the all-star break and the franchise formerly known as the montreal expos commemorated the all-star break by firing manager Manny Acta.
Not too much to say here. Just another classic case of a manager losing his job because he had the misfortune of being in charge of the least talented team in baseball. It will definitely be hard for him to get another chance to manage in the big leagues with a record of 158-252. The sad thing about this is it is really hard to gage the competence (or lack of) for Manny Acta since the Nationals roster is more or leas a joke
Noted by the plethora of has-beens and never will be's it's halfway impressive this team has managed to even go 26-61
This team has a grand total of 4 players that could get a starting spot on an even mediocre team. Johnson, Dunn, Zimmerman and John Lannan. My first thought is how bad will this team be once they trade Johnson and Dunn? My second thought is a) who are these players ? b) they're still playing professionally?
Josh Bard? Anderson Hernandez? Austin Kearns? Corey Patterson? These guys wouldn't even be decent hitters if someone told them which pitches were coming....
Julian Tavarez? Kip Wells? Mike MacDougal? Ron Villone? I thought these guys were retired..........Yep, this is the baseball equivalent to the Detroit Lions
Pretty much if there's any statistic in baseball that should have an asteric it should be Manny Acta's managerial record. Regardless of how genius the person managing this team is........this team is going nowhere...While changing managers helps in cases where the roster is talented but they're not getting it done (see Mets, New York) Acta was caught in the ambush and paid with his job............tragic but that's baseball
Not too much to say here. Just another classic case of a manager losing his job because he had the misfortune of being in charge of the least talented team in baseball. It will definitely be hard for him to get another chance to manage in the big leagues with a record of 158-252. The sad thing about this is it is really hard to gage the competence (or lack of) for Manny Acta since the Nationals roster is more or leas a joke
Noted by the plethora of has-beens and never will be's it's halfway impressive this team has managed to even go 26-61
This team has a grand total of 4 players that could get a starting spot on an even mediocre team. Johnson, Dunn, Zimmerman and John Lannan. My first thought is how bad will this team be once they trade Johnson and Dunn? My second thought is a) who are these players ? b) they're still playing professionally?
Josh Bard? Anderson Hernandez? Austin Kearns? Corey Patterson? These guys wouldn't even be decent hitters if someone told them which pitches were coming....
Julian Tavarez? Kip Wells? Mike MacDougal? Ron Villone? I thought these guys were retired..........Yep, this is the baseball equivalent to the Detroit Lions
Pretty much if there's any statistic in baseball that should have an asteric it should be Manny Acta's managerial record. Regardless of how genius the person managing this team is........this team is going nowhere...While changing managers helps in cases where the roster is talented but they're not getting it done (see Mets, New York) Acta was caught in the ambush and paid with his job............tragic but that's baseball
Saturday, July 11, 2009
I'm shocked that the Mets made a bad trade.......oh wait no i'm not
Yesterday, the Mets traded Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. This trade caught me off-guard for a couple of reasons. First of all, the Mets and Braves being NLeast rivals don't like each other and it seems odd that they would be trading partners at any-time let alone July. Second, both of these teams are in the purgatory of not sure whether they will be contenders or are they going to fade mode as both teams have been hanging around .500 but still somewhat realistic post-season hopes and this trade makes it unclear whether these teams are in buy or sell mode.
Also, at a macro-level glance it isn't overly obvious who the winner and who the loser in this trade is going to be. Pretty much, two outfielders having bad seasons are switching places in some experiment to see if change of scenery will benefit the involved parties.
After taking a closer look...the Braves are more likely to be the winners in this trade and here's why:
If nothing else, the Braves got rid of a player (Francoeur) who's basically turned into an offensive liability. With Francoeur, his career has been marred by lots of unfulfilled promise and potential. His best year was his rookie year(2005) when he had a line of .300/.336/.549 126 OPS+. Unfortunately for both the Braves and Francoeur, he has not even come close to repeating his promising start. It seems that once the league figured him out (i.e. he'll swing at just about anything) his performance has gotten progressively worse. Despite having a decent amount of power (he hit 29 Homers in '06)...he has been a below average hitter for the duration of his career 89 OPS+(translation: he's been 11% worse than a league average hitter for his career)
Even that does not tell the whole story, the trends from the last couple years indicate that he's getting worse, not better (which tends to happen at 35, not 25). After a decent 2007.....he has followed that up with a 72 OPS+ and a trip to the minors in '08 and a 68 OPS+ in '09.....out of players averaging 3.1 plate appearances per team game....that ranks him 88th.....out of 94..he's hitting so bad that he's less useful than less talented players with no pop in their bat (i.e. David Eckstein) and even players who are hitting below the mendoza line (i.e. Chris Young)
playing in the pitching-friendly CitiBank Park in New York......i don't see his performance going any better......(on the plus side none of the other non-injured mets players are hitting very well...so he should fit in well in the clubhouse)
While the player he got traded for Ryan Church is not a hall of famer or even has the raw talent of Francoeur his entire body of work indicates that he'll at least be serviceable. While he doesn't have the raw talent and power of Francoeur, he has also distinguished himself from Francoeur by being fairly consistent and being better (albeit slightly) than average (108 OPS+ career). While he's having his worst year so far (excluding 2004 when he only had 71 plate appearances) some of the other metrics from this year indicate that unlike Francoeur, he has not fallen off the cliff.
While he is older, Church is still only 30. Also, where Francoeur's batting and on-base average indicate that Francoeur is getting worse, Church is at least hitting for contact this season (even if his power is non-existent)
He at least draws some walks (not many but a lot when compared to Francoeur). Also, his batting average is in-line with a typical season for him (.280). While he's been a disappointment this year, the indicators point to the Braves getting the better end in the trade.
Pretty much, the Braves will get average performance with Ryan Church while the Mets are getting one of the leagues worst hitters in Jeff Francoeur.
Also, at a macro-level glance it isn't overly obvious who the winner and who the loser in this trade is going to be. Pretty much, two outfielders having bad seasons are switching places in some experiment to see if change of scenery will benefit the involved parties.
After taking a closer look...the Braves are more likely to be the winners in this trade and here's why:
If nothing else, the Braves got rid of a player (Francoeur) who's basically turned into an offensive liability. With Francoeur, his career has been marred by lots of unfulfilled promise and potential. His best year was his rookie year(2005) when he had a line of .300/.336/.549 126 OPS+. Unfortunately for both the Braves and Francoeur, he has not even come close to repeating his promising start. It seems that once the league figured him out (i.e. he'll swing at just about anything) his performance has gotten progressively worse. Despite having a decent amount of power (he hit 29 Homers in '06)...he has been a below average hitter for the duration of his career 89 OPS+(translation: he's been 11% worse than a league average hitter for his career)
Even that does not tell the whole story, the trends from the last couple years indicate that he's getting worse, not better (which tends to happen at 35, not 25). After a decent 2007.....he has followed that up with a 72 OPS+ and a trip to the minors in '08 and a 68 OPS+ in '09.....out of players averaging 3.1 plate appearances per team game....that ranks him 88th.....out of 94..he's hitting so bad that he's less useful than less talented players with no pop in their bat (i.e. David Eckstein) and even players who are hitting below the mendoza line (i.e. Chris Young)
playing in the pitching-friendly CitiBank Park in New York......i don't see his performance going any better......(on the plus side none of the other non-injured mets players are hitting very well...so he should fit in well in the clubhouse)
While the player he got traded for Ryan Church is not a hall of famer or even has the raw talent of Francoeur his entire body of work indicates that he'll at least be serviceable. While he doesn't have the raw talent and power of Francoeur, he has also distinguished himself from Francoeur by being fairly consistent and being better (albeit slightly) than average (108 OPS+ career). While he's having his worst year so far (excluding 2004 when he only had 71 plate appearances) some of the other metrics from this year indicate that unlike Francoeur, he has not fallen off the cliff.
While he is older, Church is still only 30. Also, where Francoeur's batting and on-base average indicate that Francoeur is getting worse, Church is at least hitting for contact this season (even if his power is non-existent)
He at least draws some walks (not many but a lot when compared to Francoeur). Also, his batting average is in-line with a typical season for him (.280). While he's been a disappointment this year, the indicators point to the Braves getting the better end in the trade.
Pretty much, the Braves will get average performance with Ryan Church while the Mets are getting one of the leagues worst hitters in Jeff Francoeur.
Friday, July 10, 2009
So are baseball post-game celebrations good or bad? Some just can't make up their mind
Saw this article online from Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Gene Collier who was complaining about excessive celebrating in baseball.
To put it nicely, Collier is way too incoherent in his argument.
Amongst the highlights:
Seems like somebody wins the World Series every night nowadays, at least on the TV highlights shows, where no manner of walk-off hit fails to spark the kind of 25-man running, jumping, tumbling, laughing celebration once traditionally reserved for once-in-a-lifetime moments in October.
It is July, right?
A bit of an exaggeration on the extent of celebrations. It's like oh no, a team is happy that they won a game. Isn't that a good thing? I'd rather have that than 25 guys who could care less whether or not they win the game.
Also, while it may only be July, there are more teams than not that still have legitimate post-season hopes. As a result, the difference between being on the winning and losing end of these close games is a big deal to the teams and their fans. Another thing, these aforementioned celebrations are in smaller scope and less narcissistic than other sports ....cough...NFL....cough.........
First of all, these celebrations are happening as a TEAM. Second, you don't have an Ocho Cinco/TO types planning over the top elaborate celebrations. In other words, the celebrations are pretty low on the excessive scale.
But oh no, someone could get hurt.
The Chicago Cubs placed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster on the disabled list Tuesday with a pulled celebration.
And then he changes his stance mid-article:
To be perfectly unclear, I'm not sure how I feel about demonstrations of joyfulness in baseball because they are probably too few. It's better to have people pounding each about the head, neck, ears and back than slinking into the dugout to calculate the game's impact on their various incentive clauses.
But I thought this guy was disgusted by the rash of post-game celebrations. He makes it pretty clear he doesn't like these celebrations and that there's too many.....and then he goes around to argue the exact opposite. So is baseball joy getting out of hand? Or is it ok? Or is it simultaneously acceptable and unacceptable?
Well to sum up the rest of the article Collier goes back and forth incoherently about whether these post-game celebrations are good or bad.....I would give more highlights about this but honestly...... watching the Brewers give up 6 runs in the top of the 10th has made me too disgusted to think clearly. (On an "unrelated" note I REALLY, REALLY hope Carlos Villaneuva is either pitching in Nashville or looking for work by the time I wake up tomorrow......I really don't want to see him (or anyone) single-handedly pitch the Brewers out of contention)
To put it nicely, Collier is way too incoherent in his argument.
Amongst the highlights:
Seems like somebody wins the World Series every night nowadays, at least on the TV highlights shows, where no manner of walk-off hit fails to spark the kind of 25-man running, jumping, tumbling, laughing celebration once traditionally reserved for once-in-a-lifetime moments in October.
It is July, right?
A bit of an exaggeration on the extent of celebrations. It's like oh no, a team is happy that they won a game. Isn't that a good thing? I'd rather have that than 25 guys who could care less whether or not they win the game.
Also, while it may only be July, there are more teams than not that still have legitimate post-season hopes. As a result, the difference between being on the winning and losing end of these close games is a big deal to the teams and their fans. Another thing, these aforementioned celebrations are in smaller scope and less narcissistic than other sports ....cough...NFL....cough.........
First of all, these celebrations are happening as a TEAM. Second, you don't have an Ocho Cinco/TO types planning over the top elaborate celebrations. In other words, the celebrations are pretty low on the excessive scale.
But oh no, someone could get hurt.
The Chicago Cubs placed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster on the disabled list Tuesday with a pulled celebration.
Scrambling to join teammates celebrating a titanic victory Sunday against Milwaukee (it pulled the Cubs within two games of first place with only 82 games left to play), Dempster tripped over the dugout rail and broke his big toe.
Nice piece of cherry-picking there. Out of this whole "pandemic" of players being happy about scoring more runs than the other time....he picks out one time where it adversely affected a player and uses that as one of the man backbones of his "argument"......And then he changes his stance mid-article:
To be perfectly unclear, I'm not sure how I feel about demonstrations of joyfulness in baseball because they are probably too few. It's better to have people pounding each about the head, neck, ears and back than slinking into the dugout to calculate the game's impact on their various incentive clauses.
But I thought this guy was disgusted by the rash of post-game celebrations. He makes it pretty clear he doesn't like these celebrations and that there's too many.....and then he goes around to argue the exact opposite. So is baseball joy getting out of hand? Or is it ok? Or is it simultaneously acceptable and unacceptable?
Well to sum up the rest of the article Collier goes back and forth incoherently about whether these post-game celebrations are good or bad.....I would give more highlights about this but honestly...... watching the Brewers give up 6 runs in the top of the 10th has made me too disgusted to think clearly. (On an "unrelated" note I REALLY, REALLY hope Carlos Villaneuva is either pitching in Nashville or looking for work by the time I wake up tomorrow......I really don't want to see him (or anyone) single-handedly pitch the Brewers out of contention)
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Weekend Preview: The Pre All-Star Edition
It's Thursday.....which means it's time for my post previewing the games on tap for this weekend...the last weekend before the all-star exhibition game.... As always the games are rated from 1(yawn inducing) to 5 (must-see) and with that said.....let the games begin
Saturday FOX Regional Action
Yankees (Pettite) vs. Angels (J.Weaver) = 3
Potential playoff preview that got knocked down a point solely because I dislike the Yankees and they're on TV too much. With that said, this should be a good match up. The Yankees are making my prediction of their 3rd place finish looking worse by the day and are creeping up on the Red Sox (which will inevitably lead to ESPN slobbering over the next Yankees-Red Sox match-up more than usual...if that's even possible)......the Angels are in a tight race with the Rangers in the AL West....Angels will probably be playing with a chip on their shoulder since they're coming off being schooled by Andruw Jones and the Rangers.....Angels win this in a close one
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Cubs (Lilly) =3
Another compelling game that I don't have interest in since I do not like either team (not to the game....I just don't like them)....the Cards are coming off winning 2 out of 3 in Milwaukee(grrrrr.......) and they have Chris Carpenter who has returned to form since returning from injury.....the Cubs are lurking at 3 1/2 games out of first and 101 years since their last title....they have All-Star Ted Lilly going to the hill....should be a low scoring affair and a good pitching match-up........if there was a way for these teams to lose to each other....that would be awesome but since someone has to win it will probably be the Cards (writing those words makes me nauseous)
Saturday night MLB (The most awesome channel ever) Network Game
Braves (Jurrgens) vs. Rockies (Marquis) = 3.5
Not the most compelling match up at first sight but it gets more interesting when looking at it at a closer level. The Braves have been hovering at or a couple games below .500 all season but are only sitting four games back. Playing in an underachieving NLeast if they get hot for a few weeks they could get themselves into first place. With a rotation headed by Jurrgens and Vasquez, that's not out of the question.
Speaking of teams who struggled for a couple months than got it together, they are facing the Rockies. Six good weeks and a managerial change has transformed the Rockies from NL West bottom feeders to fighting the Giants for second place and the wild card. The Rockies have an over-supported and decent (but not 1o-wins great)(wins and win-loss records are such over-ratted stats btw) Jason Marquis going for them Saturday.
Sunday TBS Game
Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Brewers (Gallardo) =4
Another possible play-off match up (well if the Brewers ever start winning more than one game per series). The Dodgers have young pitcher Clayton Kershaw pitching for LA on Sunday. He pitched against the Brew Crew in a sunday afternoon game last year....don't remember the exact statistics but I do remember he pitched impressively..he was in line to get the win but the Brewers tied in it the ninth on a Braun homer only for Carlos Villaneuva to give up a game-losing home run in the bottom of the 9th....
Speaking of pitchers pitching well but not getting the wins to show for it, the Brewers have Yovanni Gallardo (who ironically is the one Brewers starter who's pitched well all-season) going for them......this dude has cy-young award potential, should been an all-star and has gotten zero run support in his last two starts (including an electrifying 12-K performance against the Mets)...my call is that the Dodgers will be lookin ahead...the Brewers offense will show up for Gallardo's start (for once) and the Brewers grad some momentum going in to the break.
Sunday Night Game
Cardinals (TBD) vs. Cubs (Zambrano) =2
While ESPN does get well-deserved flak for showing too many Sox-Yankees game.....they do find time to over-do the Cards-Cubs as well (this I can at least tolerate since as an off-shoot they've shown more Brewers games when they play either team)....hard to get excited for this end-of weekend match-up. Zambrano pitched seven strong innings the last time I watched him pitch (last Friday vs. the Brew Crew)....despite his struggles he'll probably show up and pitch another strong game against another division rival...... I really wish these teams could lose to each but since someone has to win...... it will probably be the Cubs win this one (it makes me naseous to type that statement)
Saturday FOX Regional Action
Yankees (Pettite) vs. Angels (J.Weaver) = 3
Potential playoff preview that got knocked down a point solely because I dislike the Yankees and they're on TV too much. With that said, this should be a good match up. The Yankees are making my prediction of their 3rd place finish looking worse by the day and are creeping up on the Red Sox (which will inevitably lead to ESPN slobbering over the next Yankees-Red Sox match-up more than usual...if that's even possible)......the Angels are in a tight race with the Rangers in the AL West....Angels will probably be playing with a chip on their shoulder since they're coming off being schooled by Andruw Jones and the Rangers.....Angels win this in a close one
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Cubs (Lilly) =3
Another compelling game that I don't have interest in since I do not like either team (not to the game....I just don't like them)....the Cards are coming off winning 2 out of 3 in Milwaukee(grrrrr.......) and they have Chris Carpenter who has returned to form since returning from injury.....the Cubs are lurking at 3 1/2 games out of first and 101 years since their last title....they have All-Star Ted Lilly going to the hill....should be a low scoring affair and a good pitching match-up........if there was a way for these teams to lose to each other....that would be awesome but since someone has to win it will probably be the Cards (writing those words makes me nauseous)
Saturday night MLB (The most awesome channel ever) Network Game
Braves (Jurrgens) vs. Rockies (Marquis) = 3.5
Not the most compelling match up at first sight but it gets more interesting when looking at it at a closer level. The Braves have been hovering at or a couple games below .500 all season but are only sitting four games back. Playing in an underachieving NLeast if they get hot for a few weeks they could get themselves into first place. With a rotation headed by Jurrgens and Vasquez, that's not out of the question.
Speaking of teams who struggled for a couple months than got it together, they are facing the Rockies. Six good weeks and a managerial change has transformed the Rockies from NL West bottom feeders to fighting the Giants for second place and the wild card. The Rockies have an over-supported and decent (but not 1o-wins great)(wins and win-loss records are such over-ratted stats btw) Jason Marquis going for them Saturday.
Sunday TBS Game
Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Brewers (Gallardo) =4
Another possible play-off match up (well if the Brewers ever start winning more than one game per series). The Dodgers have young pitcher Clayton Kershaw pitching for LA on Sunday. He pitched against the Brew Crew in a sunday afternoon game last year....don't remember the exact statistics but I do remember he pitched impressively..he was in line to get the win but the Brewers tied in it the ninth on a Braun homer only for Carlos Villaneuva to give up a game-losing home run in the bottom of the 9th....
Speaking of pitchers pitching well but not getting the wins to show for it, the Brewers have Yovanni Gallardo (who ironically is the one Brewers starter who's pitched well all-season) going for them......this dude has cy-young award potential, should been an all-star and has gotten zero run support in his last two starts (including an electrifying 12-K performance against the Mets)...my call is that the Dodgers will be lookin ahead...the Brewers offense will show up for Gallardo's start (for once) and the Brewers grad some momentum going in to the break.
Sunday Night Game
Cardinals (TBD) vs. Cubs (Zambrano) =2
While ESPN does get well-deserved flak for showing too many Sox-Yankees game.....they do find time to over-do the Cards-Cubs as well (this I can at least tolerate since as an off-shoot they've shown more Brewers games when they play either team)....hard to get excited for this end-of weekend match-up. Zambrano pitched seven strong innings the last time I watched him pitch (last Friday vs. the Brew Crew)....despite his struggles he'll probably show up and pitch another strong game against another division rival...... I really wish these teams could lose to each but since someone has to win...... it will probably be the Cubs win this one (it makes me naseous to type that statement)
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The Wednesday Five: My thoughts on Ryan Braun's comments
The other day, a some controversy erupted as Brewers GM Doug Melvin was unhappy about some comments Ryan Braun made about the Brewers starting pitching and management.
My five thoughts on this matter are as follows.
1) In law, truth is an absolute to speaking bad about someone (slander).......while baseball is not law, this concept applies in this situation
The main comments he made about starting pitching were
"No matter who is in there, we have to find a way to throw the ball better for us to have success,"
and
"I think when you're constantly behind in games, it's not easy and it's not fun."
While the Brewers starting rotation is short-handed, (they have had to go to the bullpen (McClung) and AAA (Burns) to fill in their starting rotation, these pitchers still have the responsibility to NOT give up 7 runs in 4 or innings or less. Also, even if the comments weren't tactful or hurt some feelings, Braun's just calling them like he sees them.
2) If nothing else, it shows he wants to win.
This isn't a TO/Favre type situation where he wants to hold a team hostage because he has nothing better to do. He was frustrated that the Brewers struggled in a key series, spoke honestly and straight to the point about what was on his mind.....he just happened to make these comments to the media.
To my main point, the fact that he's addressing his frustrations shows that he cares and that he's willing to say things people don't like.....if he thinks it will motivate the Brewers to win some more games.....which brings me to my next point
3) The other times this has happened the Brewers started playing better.
This isn't the first time Braun has vented his frustration about the team after a bad series. This isn't the second time. The current count is at 3. Honestly, i'm glad he did this. Why? Because the last couple of times the Brewers started playing much better in the immediate aftermath.
Last year, he vented his frustration after a bad series in Boston. At the time the Brewers had fallen to 20-24 and last place. Afterwards, the Brewers well enough to get into contention which led to getting CC Sabathia which led to making the playoffs.
In April, he made some comments after a bad weekend series. Within a month and a half they played well enough to stay in first place for a month...With the way the Brewers have played in the last month, it was a matter of when and not if that Braun would vent his frustrations.
4) This might have been the start of an event chain that lands Roy Halladay (maybe....hopefully.....please)
So i'm not sure how far along Doug Melvin was in the process of acquiring a much needed starting pitcher before Sunday, but rumors have seemed to speed up since (due to unrelated events...but it's still happening). The timing has coincided with the Blue Jays telling teams that ace pitcher Roy Halladay can be had at the right price.
Whether or not the Brewers get him it's too early to tell, if nothing else i'm glad they're amongst the teams that have expressed an interest to acquire him. They're not necessarily the front-runners but at least Melvin is doing what he can. It may not look likely (but then again I never would of thought the Brewers would have ever been able to pull off a CC Sabathia caliber trade.)
5) This makes me glad the Brewers have a strong bullpen
If not for their bullpen, the starting pitching the Brewers would be more than 2 games out of first. Obviously, having Trevor Hoffman at 6/10 the price of a washed out Gagne. However, he is not the only Brewers reliever having a strong year as the Brewers have gotten strong efforts out of pitchers such as Todd Coffey, Mark DiFelice and Mitch Stetter.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Handicapping the 33rd Man Competition: NL Version
So, pretty much this is the second part of yesterday's posting where I break down the fan vote candidate for the all-star game.....today, the national league
From least to most deserving is as follows:
Cristian Guzman- .318/.333/.429 OPS 101+
Just like the team he plays for, Guzman is far and away the least worthy of the candidates. Singles hitter, no power, does nothing particularly well....the only way I could see Guzman as an all star is through the rule mandating representation from all 30 teams....as bad as the team formerly known as the expos have been, ryan zimmerman was good enough to make the all-star team. Guzman isn't even the most deserving non all-star on his own team (that distinction goes to Adam Dunn)....next PLEASE!
Shane Victorino .300/.363/.447 112 OPS+
Alright so he had a well-timed good game against the Reds today. He does lots of things well but doesn't do anything particularly great. I'd rather choose him than Guzman....but there are better options
Mark Reynolds .269/.354/.568 OPS 134+
The NL-equivalent and slightly more deserving version of Carlos Pena. If this vote was for home run derby inclusion, he would be at least second. However, since the league that wins the all-star game gets home-field for the world series I would rather have more players from elite teams (or at least those who are at least in contention).. unfortunately for him Arizona is one of 3 teams that has no semblance of contention hope......NEXT
Matt Kemp .305/.369/.474 OPS 123+
So Kemp barely beat out Reynolds.....he's a good player on a team with very strong world series hopes.....thus giving him more incentive to play well if he were to be selected.....
Granted, these are solid players. However, they were stacked against a player who I believe more people will become aware of as the stretch run continues....a player in the midst of a break out season on a team that is unexpectedly contending
Pablo Sandoval .333/.388/.566 158 OPS+
If this was a couple weeks ago I would most likely be unaware of Pablo Sandoval is. However, the Giants played the Brewers a couple of weekends ago and I came away very impressed with Sandoval (even though they lost 2 out of 3).....this dude is a BEAAAASSSTTTT!!!!
When this guy hits the game can pretty much turn at a moments notice....he's young (only 22!), hitting for a good average, capable of going yard on any pitch/any at bat, and he's the one hitter the giants have that is worth fearing.....
Dude is built like Prince has a Vlad-Guerrero like ability to go yard on any pitch (even if it's not even close to the strike zone) and he's only going to get better......If the Giants are able to score enough runs to stay in contention, this guy will be the reason...I could easily see Sandoval carrying the Giants for the stretch run....
The question for me is not whether Sandoval is better than the other 33rd-man candidates, but why didn't he already get voted in.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Handicapping the 33rd Man Competition: AL Version
Today was the day where all-star rosters were announced for both the american and national leagues. Also, the voting on MLB.com was opened up for who gets the last spot on each all star team. It is a nice gesture to add another deserving player to the all-star exhibition game.
Tonight I am handicapping the AL Vote going from who is least deserving to who is most deserving....
Chone Figgins .316/.392/.410 110 OPS+
Alright so he can steal some bases and he is a gritty player. He strikes me more as an intangibles guy but not a player that screams superstar. He's always struck me as a slightly more talented version of David Eckstein. Point being gritty (i.e. non-superstar) players may be good as a teammate but not what I would immediately associate an all-star label with.
Carlos Pena .233/.365/.540 131 OPS+
Another good player but just not good enough to be an all-star. This guy is the american league version of Adam Dunn in that he is one of the better 3TO (three true outcomes types player) while a Pena selection would mean possibly seeing him in the home run derby.....I would prefer an all-star selection to not have a part of their game stick out like a sore-eye. The batting average is the offending area. While I generally place more emphasis on money-ball type stats (i.e. OPS,OBS, OPS+, etc.) than batting average, when your 86th out of 95 qualified players in a certain statistic and are doing worse than players such as gerald laird, chris getz and david dejesus..........you are definitely not an all-star
Ian Kinsler .256/.333/.50o OPS+ 116
I will concede that he is one of the better power hitting second baseman in the bigs. But then again, isn't that almost a prerequisite for playing for the Texas Rangers? He's on pace to obliberate his career-high in homers. However, in his peripherals (especially batting average and ops) he seems to have regressed from last season. Being an all-star....I would rather see players recognized who have maintained or improved from prior years.
Brandon Inge .269/.363/.505 OPS +124
On the subject of improved players, Brandon Inge has seemed to put things together this year. He's had a fairly pedestrian career, endured a few position changes and for all intensive purposes is in the middle of a breakout year. Has career prior to this year has been so non-star that amongst his 10 similar players hitting wise are players such as joe oliver, greg myers and gregg zaun.
All i've got to say is ouuuch. However, this involves what these players have done this year and just like the Tigers, he has played much better than expected.....I actually did struggle between making him the most worthy 33-rd man but he got overshadowed (albeit barely) by the most-worthy 33rd man..........
Adam Lind .309/.384/.553 OPS +144
Lind is one of those players having a break-out season even if nobody is really even noticing. It's tough to notice any of the flaws that undermine the chances of others.......he's not a "scrappy" player that just isn't overly exciting, he doesn't rank near the bottom of any commonly-used statistical category. He's definitely improved more than any of the other aforementioned players (even Inge who deserves recognition for his break-out). Breaking it down, he's simply having the best season out of the five candidates and will most likely be the best of the bunch several years down the road. When it comes down to it he's hitting for good average, good power and considering his 26th birthday isn't for another couple of weeks this guy has the potential to get even better and become a perennial all-star.....in other words, the type of player that the All-Star Game recognizes......all he has to worry about is getting recognition playing in Toronto
Tonight I am handicapping the AL Vote going from who is least deserving to who is most deserving....
Chone Figgins .316/.392/.410 110 OPS+
Alright so he can steal some bases and he is a gritty player. He strikes me more as an intangibles guy but not a player that screams superstar. He's always struck me as a slightly more talented version of David Eckstein. Point being gritty (i.e. non-superstar) players may be good as a teammate but not what I would immediately associate an all-star label with.
Carlos Pena .233/.365/.540 131 OPS+
Another good player but just not good enough to be an all-star. This guy is the american league version of Adam Dunn in that he is one of the better 3TO (three true outcomes types player) while a Pena selection would mean possibly seeing him in the home run derby.....I would prefer an all-star selection to not have a part of their game stick out like a sore-eye. The batting average is the offending area. While I generally place more emphasis on money-ball type stats (i.e. OPS,OBS, OPS+, etc.) than batting average, when your 86th out of 95 qualified players in a certain statistic and are doing worse than players such as gerald laird, chris getz and david dejesus..........you are definitely not an all-star
Ian Kinsler .256/.333/.50o OPS+ 116
I will concede that he is one of the better power hitting second baseman in the bigs. But then again, isn't that almost a prerequisite for playing for the Texas Rangers? He's on pace to obliberate his career-high in homers. However, in his peripherals (especially batting average and ops) he seems to have regressed from last season. Being an all-star....I would rather see players recognized who have maintained or improved from prior years.
Brandon Inge .269/.363/.505 OPS +124
On the subject of improved players, Brandon Inge has seemed to put things together this year. He's had a fairly pedestrian career, endured a few position changes and for all intensive purposes is in the middle of a breakout year. Has career prior to this year has been so non-star that amongst his 10 similar players hitting wise are players such as joe oliver, greg myers and gregg zaun.
All i've got to say is ouuuch. However, this involves what these players have done this year and just like the Tigers, he has played much better than expected.....I actually did struggle between making him the most worthy 33-rd man but he got overshadowed (albeit barely) by the most-worthy 33rd man..........
Adam Lind .309/.384/.553 OPS +144
Lind is one of those players having a break-out season even if nobody is really even noticing. It's tough to notice any of the flaws that undermine the chances of others.......he's not a "scrappy" player that just isn't overly exciting, he doesn't rank near the bottom of any commonly-used statistical category. He's definitely improved more than any of the other aforementioned players (even Inge who deserves recognition for his break-out). Breaking it down, he's simply having the best season out of the five candidates and will most likely be the best of the bunch several years down the road. When it comes down to it he's hitting for good average, good power and considering his 26th birthday isn't for another couple of weeks this guy has the potential to get even better and become a perennial all-star.....in other words, the type of player that the All-Star Game recognizes......all he has to worry about is getting recognition playing in Toronto
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Gone Too Soon
Today, tragedy struck the sports world as Steve McNair died from a fatal gunshot wound.
My reaction to this is one word: shock. This I did not see coming. One moment i'm casually channel-surfing and the next-moment I see his face posted on one of the cable news channels....my general reaction to seeing a retired athlete's face on a non-sports channel during the off-season in the sport they play is that whatever happened is never a good thing. Sadly, this is confirmed as they mention about half a second later that Steve McNair was found dead.
Events such as this are stark reminders that life can end even when it is least expected. Tragic athlete endings such as this one are transcendent amongst society whether or not your a sports fan or whether or not you were a fan of either of the teams he played for. In other words, he died way too young.
Can't really think of too much to write on this subject beyond my initial gut reaction.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Weekend games on tap
So, the 4th of July weekend is upon us and with it the second weekly weekend TV sports preview.
The games will be rated from 1-5 based on watchability:
1= nap time
2= back ground noise
3= ok if you have nothing better to do
4= pretty compelling game
5= must see
And now.....let's play some ball.....
Saturday FOX Regional Coverage
Mets (Nieve) vs. Phillies (Moyer)= 3.5
While neither of these teams are great, this NL East match-up should still be good. The defending World Series Champion Phils are hanging on to the divison lead by the skin of their teeth and the two-time defending champion choke artist Mets are sitting at third place, a game and a half out of first. The Mets have Nieve, who has pitched suprisingly well since being picked up from Houston. The Phillies are countering with the oldest active MLB player Jamie Moyer.
A good matchup of contrasts in a fairly meaningful (for an early July game)
Pick: Phils over Mets
Tigers (Jackson) vs. Twins (Liriano)= 3
Another compelling divisional matchup. Currently, the Tigers lead both the Sox and Twins by 3 games. Both the Tigers and Jackson have been playing surprisingly well this season while being largely ignored. The Twins have Liriano going. This would have been a must-see match up if it was 2006. However, Liriano has struggled with injuries and on field performance in the last couple years. He has pitched better lately winning his last couple starts. I see Liriano's winning streak continuing and the Twins pulling out the victory
Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Padres (Geer)= 4
If this was any other weekend, this game would be fairly meaningless and gotten either a 1 or 2. However, this is not any other weekend. This will be the second game after Manny Ramirez returns from his 50-game suspension. The only reason to really watch this game is to see if Manny plays well even after his long layoff. Also, anytime there is a possibility of a Manny being Manny moment makes for interesting television. The Dodgers have proven the ability to play well either way.....the Dodgers win this one in a laugher.
Saturday Night MLB game:
Rays (Price) vs. Rangers (Holland)= 2.5
Both of these teams have legitimate post-season hopes as at least wild-cards. If this was a September game, this game would get a higher rating.
The only really compelling aspect of this game is David Price pitching. He's still young and finding his way but he has proven (so-far) to be worth the hype and high draft pick. Otherwise, not too much of a reason to watch this game. Rays over Rangers
Sunday TBS Game:
Brewers (Burns) vs. Cubs (Lilly)= 5(fans of either team) 3.5 for everyone else
This rivalry has escalated in intensity in the last few years. As it stands right now, the Cubs are 2.5 back of the Brewers. The Brewers have Burns starting. He's in the rotation due to the rash of injuries and ineffectiveness that has plagued the Brewers rotation. He's probably only in the rotation for the short term but if he pitches as well as he did on Tuesday on a consistent basis he could around longer than expected.
On Tuesday, he outpitched Johan Santana and only gave up 2 runs in 6 1/3. The Cubs have Ted Lilly going for them. He's quietly put up a solid season with a 131 ERA+. This should be a pretty close match-up coming down to the bullpen......Brewers win
Sunday night ESPN
Rays (Niemann) vs. Rangers (Feldman)=2
Tough to get too excited over this match-up. The teams aren't that bad but aren't that exciting either.....Rangers win this one.
Thursday pick of the day: Angels over Orioles
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
The Wednesday Five: The Last Place All-Stars
So last Wednesday I did a list of top 5 baseball records that I feel will never be broken. I was thinking about the direction I wanted to take the blog and I have decided to do a top 5 list on Wednesdays....(p.s. i've decided to also make the weekend sports tv preview a regular post and moved it to thursdays)....anyways with the all-star break and pennant races heating up, i've come up with the idea of giving recognition to the players stuck on last place teams that are going nowhere fast....for this list's considerations the teams included are Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, Washington, Pittsburgh and Arizona
1) Danny Haren- Diamonbacks 7-5 2.19 era 208 era+
If Haren was playing for a team that was even somewhat good and/or played defense above a little league level, he would be getting a lot more Cy Young award talk. He's having his best year by far which is impressive considering he's already a two-time All Star. When you have an ERA that is less than half the league average--something special is going on....too bad it's just happening for a team that's happens to not be very good this year.
2) Adam Dunn-Nationals .260/.396./.528 142 OPS+
Adam Dunn is doing what he's always done. Hit for a pedestrian average, draw lots of walks, strike out a lot and hit lots of homers. Dunn is iconic in his own way for being one of the greatest 3TO (Three True Outcomes) players of all time.....a little over half of his plate appearances have ended with either a walk, strikeout or home run this year.
The only difference this year is instead of doing this for a 75-win Reds team, he's doing it for a historically bad Nationals team.
3) Cliff Lee- Indians 4-7 3.39 132 OPS+
Last year's reigning Cy Young Award winner is definitely not winning 20+ games again. Unlike most pitchers who go 4-7, it's not because Cliff Lee is not a good pitcher. He's still putting up staff ace numbers, he's just not getting offensive help behind him.
It looks as though Cleveland's run of bad luck in sports has spread to their ace pitcher....(well at least until they trade him).
4) George Sherill Orioles 0-1 1.99 era 229 ERA+
Amongst the multitude of players Baltimore got for Eric Bedard. He was an all-star last year but struggled towards the end.
This year, he is putting up a largely unnoticed monster season as Baltimore's closer. While there ain't many leads to finish off these days...years....decades in Baltimore, when the opportunity has come up this year he has definitely stepped up.
5) Ryan Zimmerman- Nationals- .301/.371.500 128 OPS +
In a weird twist of irony, the team that's far and away the worst (even by last-place team standards) is the one that got two representatives on this list.
While Dunn is putting up a better season, Zimmerman is more or less the face of an otherwise atrocious Nationals team. His highlight of 08/09 was a 30-game hitting streak is the longest seen in baseball since '06. While there were those left off that had an edge statistically, this is more of a lifetime achievement award for Zimmerman's ability to still play well even when surrounded by the Double A caliber "talent" that is pervasive throughout the Nationals roster.
Also receiving consideration: Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Brad Bergesen, Victor Martinez, Shin Choo-Choo, Matt Holiday, Dallas Braden, Andrew Bailey, John Lannan, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, Justin Upton, Doug Davis
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