Didn't have enough time to write a full F5ive, here's a preview for the two games running on MLB Network today
1- Nationals vs. Reds
MLB Network
Hernandez vs. Volquez Interest Level:4
So, apparently the Nationals have pitchers not named Strasburg pitching for them. When Livian Hernandez got off to that scorching hot start, it was clear that it was built up with smoke, mirrors, good luck and a low BABIP. In other words, Livan Hernandez odds of that great start lasting the season had as good of a chance of surviving as that house made of straw in the 3 little pigs had of surviving the big bad wolf. As of today, his ERA stands at 3.27 and appears to be well on its way to its rightful place in the mid to upper 4 range.
The Reds counter with Edison Volquez (who despite failing a drug-test doesn't actually serve his 50-game suspension because he happened to be injured at the time....I don't see how this could be a controversy if the Reds win the division, but thats besides the point). who pitched well in his first start of 2010 and looks to give their pitching staff a much needed jolt in the arm as they battle the Cardinals for the NL Central playoff spot.
2- Royals vs. Yankees MLB Network Chen vs. Sabathia
The Royals and Nationals on National TV on the same day! This can be placed on the list of things that would never hapen on FOX or ESPN.
Anyways, the Royals are playing their normal role of also-ran, sitting at 12 games out of first (I thought it would look a lot worse for them at this point). The Royals bring Bruce Chen to the hill. Surprisingly, Chen hasn't pitched that bad this year (5-3 4.06 era 104 ERA+) I didn't say it was great but it's not bad either........it's a bit mind boggling that the dude has pitched for 10 teams in his career (including 4/5 of the NL East by the time he was 25)....considering he's left handed and only 33, he could very easily break the all-time record for teams pitched for before all is said and done.
None of this really matters as they are facing the Yankees and CC Sabathia. The Yankees are contending for a division title/world series title (as always) and a pre-requisite of that is taking care of business against also-ran teams such as the Royals.
Showing posts with label reds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reds. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Early Week National TV Baseball Preview
Time to see what's in store to start the second week of the season
Red Sox vs. Twins Monday ESPN
Lester vs. Pavano
Interest Level:6
The Twins finally get to open Target Field. It should be interesting to see how this stadium plays out in terms of whether it will be hitter friendly or not. The Red Sox come into this game at 3-3, the Twins have started 5-2 and at this point and appear to have not missed a beat despite not having Joe Nathan closing games out.
Reds vs. Marlins Monday MLB Network
Cueto vs. Nolasco
Interest Level: 4
The Reds were a lot of peoples pick to be a sleeper team in 2010. With a 3-3 start, they haven't really done anything to prove or disprove this notion. The Marlins had a nice first week going 4-2 and bring Ricky Nolasco (one of my picks to bounce back in 2010) to the hill.
Angels vs. Yankees Tuesday MLB Network
Santana vs. Pettite
Interest Level: 5
The Yankees started off pretty strong this week at a 4-2 clip. The Angels, well they have had better weeks. Hideki Matsui looks to be an excellent signing for the Angels early on as he came up clutch against the A's in last nights game. One of the few bright spots in their 2-5 week. Speaking of bright spots, Brandon Wood has been the exact opposite of this in his first week with a full time starting gig. Is this a sign of things to come or just the result of a bad week? We'll find out in due time.
D-Backs vs. Dodgers Tuesday MLB Network
Kennedy vs. Kershaw
Interest Level: 6
An early season NL West divisional battle. Not too much of a shock that one of these teams is sitting in second and one of them is sitting in fourth. The surprising thing is that the D-Backs are the team sitting in second and the Dodgers are the team sitting in 4th. One good reason to check this game out is that Clayton Kershaw is taking the hill for the Dodgers. Kershaw still struggles with bouts of wildness from time to time but has the talent/potential to be a Cy Young award caliber pitcher. Does this happen in 2010? Stay tuned to find out.
Nationals vs. Phillies Wednesday MLB Network
TBD vs. Kendrick
Interest Level: 4
The Phillies were expected by just about everyone to take the NL East so the fact that they are 5-1 and hanging out in 1st place shouldn't be shock to anyone. The Nationals were expected to drop straight down to the cellar but had a respectable 3-3 first week which was aided by random big games from the likes of Cristian Guzman and Willy Taveras (who did their part to place me in the basement of my Razzball league).
Astros vs. Cardinals
Myers vs. Penny
Interest Level:5
Another game where there isn't too many surprises about the teams respective places in the standings. No surprise at St. Louis at the top. No surprise that the Astros are at the bottom. The one surprise with the Astros is just the degree of ineptitude they have displayed in the first week of the season. They carry the title of being the only team to not win a game in 2010........ouch.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Finally.....Winter's Over....Here's some baseball games that will count
Well, it's FINALLY time for the 2010 baseball season. No more winter, no more spring training....time to see how this goes down....how my predictions (and everyone elses will stand up over the season).....and also how Chedderhead/My Razzball team and the random Cbssports.com fantasy league i'm in that I haven't talked about does.......
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Sunday (Sabathia vs. Beckett) ESPN 2
Tuesday (Burnett vs. Lester) MLBN
Wednesday (Pettite vs. Lackey) ESPN 2
On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 1
Like a bad TBS movie that they "give you 3 chances to watch" you get 3 chances to watch the Yankees take on the Red Sox. The Sunday game stands out because its the first game of the season that actually counts. In the context of this season, this series is fairly insignificant but i'm pretty sure ESPN is hyping it like the ALCS because to them, the other 28 teams might as well be Triple-A teams for all they care.....as evidenced by this 2007 expose by the Onion.
In all seriousness, I don't care who it is...baseball is back. You have ex-Brewer Sabathia taking the hill against Beckett who is currently in negotiations for a massive extension (will this keep him in contract year blow the world away mode?)
On Tuesday, MLB Network gets in on the fun as they show game 2 of this series. MLB Network gets a pass on the Red Sox-Yankees criticism I give ESPN as they are taking the step of showing all 30 teams within the first 30 days of the season.
Wednesday marks the first Red Sox start for John Lackey....does he justify the piles of money thrown at him last summer or not? We begin to find out Wednesday
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Reds (Harang) Monday ESPN
On a scale of 1-10, my interest is: 6
A few interesting things here:
1) First look at a couple of NL Central rivals: The first look at a Cardinals team that just about everyone (except myself....and I don't see them missing by much) against a Reds team that is a perpetual sleeper in the NL Central
2) A first look at whether Chris Carpenter can replicate his strong 2009 season. Talent isn't the issue, the ability to stay healthy....well that's a completely different story......also he's one of my starters in the CBS league (Baseball, Beer and Bahkas) so i'll be a bit more interested in the results
3) Day 1 of Jay Bruce's breakout season: With Cliff Lee and Huston Street injured, someone is going to have to carry Cheddarhead on their shoulders, it might as well be Jay Bruce.
Indians (Westbrook) vs. White Sox (Buerhle) Monday ESPN2
On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 4
The Indians have lots of potential in 2010.....to be as bad or as worse than the Royals. If the Indians have any hope of making that last sentence sound horribly wrong, they are probably going to need Jake Westbrook to make more than 5 starts.
The White Sox on the other hand, have reasonable playoff expectations. They may not be a great team but then again they aren't in the strongest division either. Despite Joe Nathan being shelved for the season, I still think the Twins will win the division (barely.)
Another fun fact is that this game matches up 2 of the 3 pitchers who tied for the league in Hits Allowed in 2006. (The third player, Jon Garland gets the opening day nod for the Padres).
Cubs (Zambrano) vs. Braves (Lowe) Monday ESPN
On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 8
Well, the Cubs are involved so if nothing else I have a team to root against. Also, with Carlos Zambrano pitching you never quite know what your getting although this tends to equal itself out over each season as his ERA+ the last few years have been eerily similar (117,118,119) Usually an interesting and harmless experience unless you happened to be dressed like a Gatorade machine and Zambrano doesn't like the umpiring on a given day.
For the Braves, the have Derek Lowe taking the hill here. Lowe is coming off his worst year as a starter but I see him coming back strong in 2010....i'm confident enough in this assertion that he ended up on Chedderhead.
Giants (Lincecum) vs. Astros (Oswalt) Monday ESPN
On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 7
Good pitching match-up. Anytime Lincecum takes the hill, it's worth watching (right now he's my favorite non-Brewers player) because you never know whats going to happen. The Astros are looking to Roy Oswalt to anchor their staff this year.
From '01-'07 this would have been a fairly sound strategy. However, Oswalt's performance and his health have regressed a bit in the last couple years ......pretty much a microcosm of the Astors as a whole.
Twins vs. Angels
Baker vs. Weaver Tuesday MLB Network
Pavano vs. Santana Wednesday ESPN 2
On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a : 6
It should be interesting to see how the Twins come out of the gate. Will their saavy winter moves and the momentum of locking up Joe Mauer be the catalyst towards another playoff appearance. Or will the downgrade from Joe Nathan to whoever they have closing games bring them back to the pack.
For the Angels, will they rack up another AL West title or will the Mariners off-season moves allow them to overtake Los Angeles of Anaheim of North America of the Northern Hemisphere and be top of the class. To answer some of these questions but raise more questions than are actually answered, stay tuned to find out.
Brewers vs. Rockies Wednesday MLB Network
Saturday, March 13, 2010
NL Central Preview Part II:
In the quest to answer the ultimate question of where do the Brewers stack up against their NL Central brethren, it is time to complete the second park (pitching half) of the NL Central Preview:
Our standings after the first half are:
Brewers 22
Cardinals 23
Cubs 25
Reds 29
Pirates 34
Astros 35
Starting Pitching
Cardinals-Carpenter/Wainwright/Lohse/Penny --4
Cubs-Zambrano/Lilly/Dempster/Wells/Silva-- 8
Brewers-Gallardo/Wolf/Davis/Bush/Parra/Suppan's Expiring Contract--12
Reds-Harang/Arroyo/Bailey/Owens/Chapman-16
Astros-Oswalt/Rodriguez/Norris/Paulino/Moehler--20
Pirates-Malholm/Duke/Ohlendorf/Morton/Hart
The rankings for this are fairly relative and contextually based as none of these rotations are without their question marks. The Cardinals get the nod because their question marks are less glaring. For them the questions are Can Carpenter stay healthy ? Maybe Will Wainwright pitch as well as he did last year? Probably not Will Lohse do what Kyle Lohse usually does ? Probably Will we see the Brad Penny that struggled in Boston or the Brad Penny that pitched strong in San Francisco ? Arguments for the latter--He's still in the National League, he had Dave Duncan as pitching coach--Argument against--He doesn't get to make half his starts at Pac-Bell
For the Cubs--Can Zambrano stay healthy AND not be a distraction? Probably and Probably not Will Ted Lilly be an All-Star and be the only representative again? Maybe and Probably not Will Randy Wells sneak up on anyone again? Unlikely Will Cubs fans still rationalize that trading for Carlos Silva was a good idea even though he is one of the WORST pitchers in the league. Regardless of how rocky Miton Bradley's tenure was in Chicago, they reality is that they got ABSOLUTELY FLEECED IN THIS DEAL. Since we are on the subject here are five things the Cubs could have gotten in return from Milton Bradley and have it work out better for them than trading for Carlos Silva.
1) Random AA Player
2) Random A Player
3) $20 Starbucks Gift Certificate
4) CDs from any of the following artists......Nirvana, Heart, Pearl Jam, Alice In Chains, Queensryche, Jimi Hendrix, Soundgarden
5) Matt Hasselbeck......he might play a completely different sport but it's not that hard to top Carlos Silva's "production"
6) A bag of baseballs
On one hand I feel I am being too generous with the Brewers rotation rankings. On the other hand, the rotations ranked below them ain't setting the world on fire. The argument for....Yovani Gallardo has ace potential. He showed many flashes of promise as he struck out 200+ batters last year and he was the only Brewers starter that didn't make me absolutely cringe. I am a bit concerned that he walked 94 batters as well but he's only 24 and he's on the cusp of being one of the elite pitchers in the game.
The argument against--relative weakness from 2 to 5. The Brewers addressed their rotation needs by signing Randy Wolf over the winter. While the Brewers stretched it money-wise with their decision based on his career year, I still see him eating some innings winning about a dozen games and having an ERA close to 4. Not exactly #2 pitcher caliber stuff but an improvement over last year. The Brewers also brought back Doug Davis and its reasonable to expect his performance will be similar to Wolf.
In the 4-5 position it's likely that Suppan will get a spot he does not deserve well because he gets paid a lot of money. The last spot will be between Parra (who is too talented to pitch as bad as he did last year) and Dave Bush while not having the high ceiling as Parra has shown the ability in to put up Wolf/Davis type numbers. Not to be forgotten is that the Brewers have a new pitching coach (Rick Peterson) who does have a sucessful track record in the bigs.
In terms of starting pitching, the Reds are the biggest wildcard in the equation. In terms of how they actually do in terms of starting pitching comes down to 1) Is this the year Homer Bailey lives up to the hype surrounding him? and 2) Is Aroldis Chapman as good as everyone says he is?
For the Astros the question is begged Can Oswalt stay healthy and will Rodriguez pitch as well as he did in 2009? Maybe and Maybe and will the Pirates pitching be as bad as it looks on paper? Dude, it's the Pirates and the last time I checked the calendar it isn't 1992.
Bullpens
Brewers-Hoffman/Hawkins/Coffey-4
Reds-Cordero/Rhodes/Herrera-8
Cardinals-Franklin/Reyes/Miller-12
Cubs-Marmol/Grabow/Marshall-16
Pirates-Hanrahan/Asciano/Veal-20
Astros-Lyon/Lindstrom/Fulchino-24
While the Brewers starting pitching cost them a chance to contend for their second straight trip to the playoffs, the bullpen did what they could. Hoffman had a 2009 season that defied his age. It would be too much to expect a repeat of 2009 but Hoffman is still one of the better closers in the league. Like Wolf, the Brewers stretched a little bit on years and money for Hawkins. Still, Hawkins has shown he can be an effective pitcher as long as the team hes playing for isn't dumb enough to put him in the closers role. Todd Coffey is example one of too many to count of players that seemingly were going nowhere until Doug Melvin picked them off the waiver wire. There's a lot to like about Coffey....the full on sprints from the bullpen....the fact that it took him forever to give up a run when the Brewers signed him. Plus the full on vendetta he has against the broadcast team of the Reds.
The this single-handedly makes Todd Coffey the man story as found via a Google Search for Jeff Brantley Todd Coffey and the first organic result from the Dayton DailyNews:
Former Reds relief pitcher Todd Coffey, now with Milwaukee, pitched a 1-2-3 inning against the Reds then ran into a railing in front of the Brewers dugout because he was staring at the radio booth where Jeff Brantley was seated. When Coffey was with the Reds, Brantley said of him, "It is difficult to pitch with both hands around your throat."
If that's not epic I don't know what is.......
The Reds get the second spot with the back of their bullpen anchored by Francisco Cordero. I'm going to skip talking about the Reds bullpen and discuss a random Francisco Cordero anecdote. So the gym that I work out at has 7 TV screens. Five of them actually have cable (unfortunately one of these...sometimes two is dedicated to the vile that Sean Hannity calls "analysis".....but thats another rant for another day).....Anyways, the two other TV screens run a blatant inundations of local ads on a 5-10 minute cycle and usually there's some recent news and some sports trivia questions that run within the cycle of these advertisements. Anyways, I was working out one day and one of the trivia questions was who won the 2006 NL MVP. The first choice was the winner (Ryan Howard) the second choice (Barry Bonds) while off his MVP-peak would still pass for a plausible wrong answer....the third choice.....Mr. Francisco Cordero.....hmm I wonder which one isn't like the others. The same Francisco Cordero who while having a fine career being a 3 time All-Star and quietly putting up a career ERA+ of 148 but also the same Francisco Cordero who has never finished above 24 th in MVP-voting.
If we were going solely on what happened in 2009 instead of what's likely to happen in 2010 the Cardinals would have a higher rank based on Franklin's career year. I'm definitely not sold on Franklin repeating his career year........I'm not sold on Carlos Marmol getting through the year without giving the Cubs fits at closer.....I'm not sold on anyone that puts on a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform.......Also, if the Astros keep Brandon Lyon in the closers position....wait for disaster.......some people were made to be middle-relievers and not closers....Brandon Lyon fits perfectly within this scope of some people.
Final Results:
Brewers-38
Cardinals-39
Cubs-49
Reds-57
Astros-75
Pirates-79
Wow.....by every other projection and even my pre-conceived notions of this team......best case was second worse case was fourth and probable case was third. If this holds up we could be up for an epic battle for the NL Central title. Of course, this assumes a lot of things go right, i.e. the starting rotation getting their act together, the bullpen being strong all year and what I believe will be the make or break factor assuming little to no change elsewhere....the ability of Rickie Weeks to stay healthy AND effective all year. It will take seven months to figure out whether this is the smartest or dumbest posting I write all year. I'm either on to something that no one else is or I just gave homerism a really, really, bad name......not the avant gard homerism you see given to the Yankees by ESPN but Carlos Silva-bad homerism........now we play the waiting game.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
NL Central Preview Part 1
So there are a lot of important questions to be asked for the upcoming baseball season. How bad are the Royals going to be? How epic is my fantasy team going to be? Who's going to win it all? Isn't dedicating a prime 9 to the Tampa Bay Rays sort of like making a greatest hits album for Vanilla Ice? But all of these questions are inferior to THE ultimate question........Where Can I expect the Brewers to finish in the standings this year?
Only one way to find out.....break it down the NL Central just like it's any other division
Catcher
1-Geovany Soto
2-Yadier Molina
3-Gregg Zaun
4-Ryan Doumit
5-Ramon Hernandez
6-J.R. Towles
Yes Soto had a terrible season last year. Note the emphasis on a terrible season, not being a terrible player. Easily attributable to an obscenely low BABIP. Yadier Molina had another All-Star season last year and he can play defense but I find it hard to associate a Molina brother with being an offensive juggernaut. For the Brewers, having Zaun instead of Kendall allows them to jump from the bottom to the middle of the pack in this position but a sense of reality and perspective needs to be placed in that Zaun is a middle of the pack catcher...no better...no worse.
First Base
1-Albert Pujols
2-Prince Fielder
3-Derrek Lee
4-Joey Votto
5-Lance Berkman
6-Steve Pearce
All I have to say about 1 to 5 is......wow. First Base is deep in this division. It's obvious that Pujols is the best at this position and in the league until proven otherwise....still in a love/hate mode with myself for drafting him onto Cheddarhead but c'mon it's Pujols. Prince Fielder is amongst the top candidates to dethrone King Albert as the best hitter in the league but wanting to be number 1 and being number 1 are two different things. There are talks of a contract extension in place so maybe this will motivate him to go from his status as an already great hitter to being in his own top echelon. Derrek Lee is a great hitter in his own regard but a notch below Albert and Prince. Votto and Berkman are fairly interchangeable. Votto is on the way up and could be in line for a breakout season. Berkman, while still a great hitter is getting up there in years and seems more vulnerable to injury and/or regressing numbers than Votto.
Second Base
1-Brandon Phillips
2-Rickie Weeks
3-Felipe Lopez
4-Akinori Iwamura
5-Kaz Matsui
6-Mike Fontenot
How production from this position actually shakes out is highly reliant on the ability of certain players (Rickie Weeks....cough...cough) to stay healthy. Phillips and Weeks are in the top tier for this division. Both Phillips and Weeks have the talent to put up 20-20 seasons. Phillips gets the nod because as of now, he's been the one to fulfill said talent.
Weeks is definitely a talented player and has been a breakout prospect for a long time but has been plagued by under-performance and health injuries. 2009 was beginning to look like his breakout year but then....BOOM....out for the season. Here's to Weeks fulfilling his potential in 2010.
Shortstop
1-Alcides Escobar
2-Ryan Theriot
3-Brendan Ryan
4-Ronny Cedeno
5-Tommy Manzella
6-Paul Janish
The shortstop position in two words......Paper Thin. Yes, I realize Escobar is a work in progress especially in the Power and Walks department but a combination of his assets (good contact, blazing speed, strong defense) and going up against players that peaked last year and even then didn't peak that high (Theriot) a prototypically bland middle-infielder (Ryan) and three players that despite being on the wrong side of 25 don't have anything screaming about them that they will ever be stars (Cedeno, Manzella and Janish)..leads to a pretty weak crop of Shortstops.
Third Base
1-Aramis Ramirez
2-Casey McGehee
3-Scott Rolen
4-Pedro Feliz
5-Andy LaRoche
6-David Freese
Another fairly weak crop. Despite the injury concerns/issues surrounding Ramirez the reality remains that he is by far the most talented amongst this crop. McGehee is definitely a Major-League caliber starter but how good he ultimately will be is still debatable. On one hand, McGehee's breakout season was aided by a fairly lucky BABIP. On the other hand, he had his breakout season without being completely healthy. While Scott Rolen's ability to stay healthy is highly questioned, hes still a fairly productive hitter. That is more than we can say about Pedro Feliz has overcome hitting double figure home runs on a yearly basis to consistently hit 20 percent below league average.
Left Field
1-Ryan Braun
2-Matt Holliday
3-Carlos Lee
4-Alfonso Soriano
5-Chris Dickerson
6-Lastings Milledge
This field busts out into 3 tiers. Braun/Holliday are in Tier One. If I were to reduce the face of the Brewers to one player, it would be Ryan Braun. All he's done since coming to the bigs is knock the cover out of baseballs. He's asserted himself as the vocal leader of this squad even saying things to the media that pretty much every fan was thinking (i.e. last year's pitching was terrible).
While Holliday is also amongst the elite hitters in the league, he does have the strike against him that he struggled a bit in his stint in Oakland (regardless of how much McAfee stadium is to blame). That and in full disclosure I am a bit biased towards Braun.
Carlos Lee is a distant third. He's become so reliable to hit .300 and go yard about 30 times a year that he's sort of fallen into the background. A great hitter, a solid producer its just that Braun and Holliday are better. Soriano obviously has lots of talent (its sort of hard to be a 40-40 player without it) but things have definitely gone south for him since becoming a Cub. Definitely a make or break year for him.
Center Field
1-Andrew McCutchen
2- Marlon Byrd
3-Colby Rasmus
4-Drew Stubbs
5-Michael Bourn
6-Carlos Gomez
McCutchen was good enough to actually make the Pirates decision to trade McLouth look justifiable. He should continue to improve and progress until the Pirates decide to trade him in the name of continuing their perpetual cycle of losing. Byrd had a nice year in Texas....not sure how the momentum of that and being away from Texas will affect his game this year. Rasmus had moments last year....he's better than the players below him....but haven't seen enough to rank him any higher.
Yes, Drew Stubbs had a nice run after getting called up but I would like to see him sustain that level of play for more than a couple months before signing off on him as a star. Bourn had his career year last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle at the plate this year....as I've mentioned here before....I am not very confident in the current ability level of Carlos Gomez and he is ranked accordingly.
Right Field
1-Jay Bruce
2- Hunter Pence
3-Ryan Ludwick
4-Garrett Jones
5-Corey Hart
6-Kosuke Fukudome
One of the tougher rankings by position. Jay Bruce may have only hit .223 last year and struggled with injuries. However, he is on the cusp (i.e. a couple months away) from stardom.....he was ridiculously unlucky at the plate as evidenced by a .222 BABIP. In other words, he should have hit closer to .260.....even with this bad luck he still went deep 22 times in 345 at bats. Also, he'll be 23 next month indicating he'll only get better than where he is currently. Even if he doesn't actually improve and the only difference is he doesn't get hurt and he doesn't get horribly unlucky we could be looking at .260-.270 hitter with 35-40 homers.
Two through five are fairly close. There's something about Astros hitters with power that makes them hard to notice. I don't know whether its the hitter friendly park or if its because their team isn't very good but Hunter Pence has managed to go deep 25 times the last couple years without anyone really noticing.
Where to rank Hart, Jones and Ludwick is a bit more ambiguous. That could be because their bodies of work are so similar, they make each others Top 10 lists for similarity scores. Both are average to slightly above average hitters whose reputations are expanded by a career year aided by an inflated BABIP (Hart in 2007, Ludwick in 2008). Both players could potentially drive in 100+ Runs because of pitchers opting to pitch around star hitters in the lineup (Fielder/Braun and Pujols/Holliday). Corey Hart is younger and likely has more years ahead of him while Ludwick has done more with the opportunities given as he has the advantage in OPS+ (117 to 106).
Thus Ludwick is 3rd and Hart is 5th. Why does Hart fall to 5th? Because i'm not quite sure what to do with Garrett Jones. On one hand, his monster season last year would have projected to a 40 homer season. On the other hand, the fact that he was aided by a generous BABIP (.327) and he didn't get his first chance to play regularly until 28 raises a few red flags. I don't think hes going to be total bust (i.e. Michael Bourn) and he's still better than Fukudome but I don't see him hitting 40 out this year. Not sure exactly where he will fall in the context of Hart-Ludwick but I could see him moving to a new normal of slightly above average and thus I am splitting the difference and ranking him 4th.
And our standings after one half:
Brewers-22
Cardinals-23
Cubs-25
Reds-29
Pirates- 34
Astros-35
Some surprises some non-surprises. I am slightly surprised that the Brewers have a lead (albeit slight one). I'm not shocked that Milwaukee, St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati occupy the top four positions. However, i'm surprised at the exact order of the four teams. To my absolute non-shock, the Pirates and Astros are not even to the top. In all fairness, the halves are broken down into hitting and pitching and one reason the Brewers are even close to the top (let alone at the top) is that the pitching staffs don't get ranked until the next post. Well whatever helps me sleep easier at night.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Doing this post makes me realize I know more about baseball than Joe Morgan
Alright so one of my favorite all-time blogs is firejoemorgan.com. Unfortunately, the blog was retired in November 2008. This was one of my favorite blogs as their insight was intelligent, sarcastic and they were not afraid to point out when an "expert" argued witht the logic of a second grader. One of their regular features was a skewering of Joe Morgan's online Q and A [Joe Chat] where they would regularly point to where he was not fulfilling his job as an expert
With nobody taking up the internet void of skewering Joe Chat's ....I figure i'll at least give it a shot.....if it works.....awesome.....if not......at least I gave it a shot
Some of the "highlights are as follows"
joe do what do oyu think the chances of the phils repeatin are? what needs to happen? do you think cliff lee is the best pitcher in baseball right now?
Joe Morgan
(11:32 AM)
They definitely have a chance of repeating. I think the key will be Cole Hamels. If he can get back to being the pitcher he was at the end of last season, with the addition of Lee, I think they have a chance. So, with Hamels and of course Brad Lidge.
Alright, I'll give Morgan partial credit for addressing the first question. However, he fails to answer whether Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball right now. It's obvious that adding Lee gives the Phillies a better chance. Plus, all Morgan would need to do to answer the Cliff Lee question was to look up his ridiculous stats since coming to Philly [5-0 0.68 era 641 ERA+]---ok so that was before his loss to Atlanta tonight--but he's definitely the best pitcher in the NL right now (and even if he didn't think it....he still should have bothered to answer the question. Also, what's with him mentioning Brad Lidge and cutting himself off mid-sentence.
brett...louisville
what is the biggest concern for the reds, pitching or hitting? and can they ever be a contender in the central? thanks joe
Joe Morgan
(11:34 AM)
All of the above. For a while they were hitting very well, scoring some runs and pitching well. Now they look like a team that needs both, pitching and hitting.
This was an answer that was insightful……NOT…..It's also obvious that Joe has no idea what he's talking about. First of all, one quick look at baseball-reference shows that while their pitching has been pretty mediocre (10th in NL in ERA)….their hitting has been a full on trainwreck.
While you could argue that they were pitching well for some point (their team ERA+ is 102), any assertion that they were hitting well at some point this season is preposterous. As a team they are dead last in OPS. Their team OPS+ is 79---their whole team is hitting 21 % worse than average. It's pretty sad when their third best hitter is Laynce Nix. They've given significant playing time to THREE players with an OPS+ below 60 (Alex Gonzales, Willy Taveras and Adam Rosales)……in other words....the hitting has more room for improvement than the pitching
Joe, of all the divisional leaders, no one is talking about
Joe Morgan
(11:46 AM)
I think at this time
So are they a World Series team or not?
What do you think about Ben Zobrist for AL MVP consideration?
Joe Morgan
(11:47 AM)
There are a lot of guys having a good year on a lot of different teams. But to say that he's an MVP candidate, I don't think so. I think you're looking at Teixiera, Morneau, Mauer. There are guys ahead of him as far as MVP is concerned. But Zobrist is having a good season.
Zobrist .292/.409/.554 147 OPS+
Teixiera .286/.382/.547 140 OPS+
Joe Morgan
(11:50 AM)
Kevin, you are the first guy that thinks like I do. I've said all along that Juan Pierre brought an energy to that team that they didn't have with Manny in the lineup. He's a lifetime .300 hitter, so he wasn't just getting hot with Manny gone. I'm not saying they should have benched Manny, but they should find a way to get him more at bats and get him more time to play. He needs to have more of a chance to play now that they're struggling. Maybe Joe Torre will do that. Manny's not hitting well either. And when he's not hitting well, he's not helping you that much.
Energy…..the new grit….this is the type of thinking that inflates the reputation of weak-hitting middle infielders everywhere…..energy is nice but producing on the field is nicer……while Pierre has been as asset to the Dodgers…..to even suggest that his value even approaches Manny……not buying it……what they've done this year is as follows…..
Friday, August 28, 2009
The (Late) Weekend Preview
Well , it's coming a day later than usual.....but the weekend preview is here....as always games are ranked on a scale of 1-5.....and with that.....let the games begiiiiiin
Dodgers [Haeger] vs. Reds [Maloney] Saturday FOX =2
These teams have had very opposite seasons. Despite their recent struggles, the Dodgers are still the team to beat in the NL West and start the weekend with a 4-game lead. The start knuckleballer Charlie Haeger who pitched very impressively last weekend against the Cubs, getting his first win of the season. The Reds [despite their sweep of the Brewers] are still a team going nowhere and nowhere fast....despite playing well enough to be within striking distance in the first half of the season....they still sit a whopping 16 games under .500.....they counter with rookie Matt Maloney who is making his fourth start and still seeking his first ML win...thus far his closest claim to ML fame was being traded for Kyle Lohse in 2007.....another fun fact is if you look up Matt Maloney on wikipedia it defaults to the ex-Houston Rocket of the same name.....
Mets [Parnell] vs. Cubs [Dempster] =2---Saturday FOX
A match-up between two teams who have played worse than expected this year. The Mets have been decimated by injuries and start Bobby Parnell who has pitched primarily in the bullpen this year. The Cubs counter with Ryan Dempster.....who has regressed back to his career averages...not the best way to follow-up a career year and the ensuing contract extension.....
Rays [Price] vs. Tigers [Robertson] =3.5 Saturday FOX
Not the most exciting match-up...but it gets bumped up a point since there are playoff implications. The Rays are sitting 3 1/2 games out of the wild-card starts David Price. The Tigers are up 4 games in the AL Central and they are giving Nate Robertson his first start of the season...
Giants [Zito] vs. Rockies [Marquis]---Saturday MLB Network =4
Easily the best game on TV this weekend. The Giants and Rockies are in a battle for the wild card spot. As of this writing, the Rockies are up 3 games. It will take a lot to out-do the series they had last week culminating in a 14th inning grand slam.
White Sox [Garcia] vs. Yankees [Chamberlain] = 2 Sunday TBS
This game gets a point knocked off because the Yankees are involved. The White Sox despite struggling this year are still only 4 games behind the Tigers. They trot-out injury prone Freddy Garcia who is making his 3rd start of the season. The Yankees trot out Joba Chamberlain.....who is definitely gets more hype/publication than than he would if he didn't play in New York.....but hey not if you lead the league in hit batsmen....well i can't think of anything else significant he's done this year
Braves [Jurrjens] vs. Phillies [Blanton] = 3.5 Sunday ESPN
A Solid NL-East battle to finish off the weekend. The Braves bring in start Jurrjens who has pitched much better than his 10-8 record. The Phillies counter with Joe Blanton...a very prototypical mid-rotation pitcher....the Braves need to take at least 2 of 3 this weekend as they are sitting 7 back in the NL East and need to go on a tear to make a deeper impact on the wild card..........
Monday, August 24, 2009
Brewers-Reds Preview
The Brewers just ending a pretty good series against the team formerly known as the expos (nationals)........despite a bad start by Parra and blowing a 7-run lead on Saturday...the Brewers still managed to win 3 out of 4.......with that series ending means it is now time to look ahead to the next series
Brewers [61-63] vs. Reds [52-71]
Tuesday
Arroyo [6-14 4.21 era 106 ERA+] vs. Suppan [5-8 5.27 era 80 ERA+]
The Brewers are facing Bronson Arroyo in tomorrow night's game. While he's had a pretty average year [better than his 6-14 record indicates but definitely not Cy Young material] he did shut down the Crew the last time they faced him. Speaking of Arroyo....I definitely need to give him props for doing something that has eluded many of his contemporaries [acknowledging/bragging about doing steroids] and something the media has failed to realize [that everyone was doing steroids and 2003 and that it's really not that big a deal if a player did so]
The Brewers counter with the mediocre $10 million dollar man....Jeff Suppan......this is his first start since coming back from the disabled list....while I won't miss pitchers like Mike Burns and Carlos Villaneuva pitching in his spot......i'm still not too excited to see Suppan back........on the bright side his contract expires at the end of '10
Wednesday
Reds [TBD] vs. Brewers [Looper 11-6 4.95 era 86 ERA+]
The Reds haven't determined who's pitching for them Wednesday. Regardless of whether Looper pitches good or not....it's pretty much a given someone is going to go yard on him....coming into this start he's at 31 [tied for 248 th all time for a single season.....] if he gives up 20 more he'll break Bert Blyleven's all time mark.
Thursday
Reds [Owings 6-12 5.52 era 81 ERA+] vs. Brewers [TBD]
The Brewers have not offically decided who's starting thursday although there is the possibility that TBD will be the return of Dave Bush. The Reds counter with a pitcher who is more imposing as a hitter .255/.264/.529...considering his struggles on the mound......it wouldn't be too shocking for him to become a full-time hitter at some point........he hits for a decent average...lots of power....he just needs to draw some more walks
Exhibit A)
In 188 career plate appearance he has an OPS+ of 118: Other hitters with the same career OPS+ include Luiz Gonzalez, Matt Stairs, Mike Sweeney, Pete Rose, Cecil Fielder and Andres Galarraga
Exhibit B)
Even hitting lower than his career average this year [100 OPS+] .....he still has a higher OPS+ than players such as Milton Bradley, Brandon Phillips, Clint Barmes and Jimmy Rollins
Ah.......the information you can find on Baseball-Reference never ceases to amaze me.....well that's another preview.....until next time......play ball
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