Back From The Break, Five Things To Watch For

So the All-Star Break is coming to an end (after three long days) and i've finally mustered up the motivation to do some writing.

Thursday happens to be a light day (a soft launch if you will).....the only game being nationally televised is:

1-Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Network
Kershaw vs. Carpenter
Interest Level: 8

This is a pretty solid match-up to start off the second half and the beginning of things to come. First of all, there is the factor of this being a rematch of last years NLDS. Also, both teams come into this game with legitimate playoff hopes as the Dodgers are 2 games behind the Padres for the west and tied for the Rockies in the Wild Card race. The Cardinals are in decent contending position as well as they sit only 1 game back of the Reds in the Central.

Also, the pitching match-up is nothing to scoff at either. The Dodgers are starting Clayton Kershaw who in my opinion, is one of the under-rated young pitchers in the game. He barely turned 22 before the season started, he's capable of dominating at times, piling up high strikeout numbers (he leads the NL in SO/9) and has improved on his one weakness control (going from 4.8 BB/9 to 4 BB/9 from last year to this). In other words, once Kershaw gets his walk totals a little lower, he is bound to have his name in the discussion of young ace pitchers that has been dominated by Strasburg (despite the disadvantage of playing on the West Coast).

The Cardinals are countering with Chris Carpenter. While Carpenter obviously isn't as young as Kershaw, the last couple of years have proven he can still pitch. He nearly won the Cy Young last year and has followed it up with a strong 2010. This game also includes a conflict of interest element. Obviously, a Dodgers win over the Cardinals would help the Brewers increase their 1% chance of making the playoffs (albeit slightly) while a rough outing by Carpenter would hurt my fantasy team that is in the midst of a season high 3-game losing streak. Either way, expect this to be a close, low-scoring game


Other things that pique my interest:

2- How will the Brewers start the second half?

While the Brewers may have embarrassed themselves against the Giants, they still managed to sweep the Pirates last weekend giving them a 3 game winning streak and get themselves within single figures in the Games Back column. The Brewers have Dave Bush taking the hill. This may not guarantee victory (as indicated by a 4-6 record) but it at least means that more likely than not, the Brewers will at least have a chance to extend their winning streak to 4 as he held the opposing team to 3 ER or less in 14 of his 17 first-half starts.

3- How will the Gonzales/Escobar trade affect the Braves?

We will begin to find out starting with their game against the Brewers. Personally, i'm not sold on it being as positive of an impact as the Braves are hoping. Sure, Gonzales went on a tear in the first half and hit a bunch of homers. Personally, it's more he had an extended hot streak than Gonzales turning a corner (at 33 and with a .296 OBP). The Blue Jays were smart enough to sell high on Gonzales while the Blue Jays were able buy-low to pick up a younger, talented but struggling Yunel Escobar (who's younger (27) has a better OBP than Gonzales (.334...so he's getting on base more often in his worst year than Gonzales has in his best year) and he also happened to be 10th the NL in Wins Above Replacement last year while Gonzales has never had an OPS+ over 100 in a full season.

My take, i'm not convinced the Braves upgraded themselves going from Gonzales to Escobar and there is a fair possibility that they may regret this trade a few years down the line.

4- How long can R.A. Dickey keep this up?

If you would have told me on opening day that R.A. Dickey would have been the Mets best pitcher in the first half and asked me how many games out of first they would be, I would have said 20. However, R.A. Dickey has been a major factor in the Mets having a legit shot at the playoffs. In terms of the NL East race, a major factor for the Mets being a player will hinge on whether Dickey reverts to the journeyman pitcher he was through his age-34 year or if he's made a permanent breakthrough with the knuckle ball that will keep him effective into his 40s.
We'll begin to find out tomorrow as he goes up against Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants.

5- Is this the 3rd straight year the AL Central gets decided in a one-game playoff?

The reason I ask this question is the Twins and White Sox get started in a crucial 4-game series coming up this weekend. In 08 it was White Sox over Twins, last year it was Twins over Tigers. Leads me to think about a couple of weird scenarios. Scenario #1 being that neither team wins it as it would be the Tigers turn to win the AL Central via a one-game playoff. Scenario #2 being an unprecedented 3-way tie that leads to a 3 team round-robin playoff. Considering that Coolstandings.com gives all 3 teams at least a 25% chance but none of them have a 50% chance to make the playoffs.

My prediction, with pitcher Jake Peavy out for the year, the White Sox eventually take the AL Central via the Ewing Theory.

Early Look At Sunday's TBS/ESPN games

Cubs vs. Brewers TBS

Interest Level: 10

Wells vs. Bush

The I-94 rivalry is a bitter/intense match-up regardless of time of season & the teams respective places in the standings. In this case, probably good in the name of being interesting since we're not out of April yet and both teams find themselves on the wrong side of .500.

The Brewers find themselves at 8-9 and thus far have unable to hold teams not called the Pittsburgh Pirates to less than 5 runs in a ballgame. Speaking of that series, epic.......anytime you can outscore a team 36-1 in a 3 game stretch (20-0 in one of those games). Things are going good. Unfortunately, reality has struck the last 2 days as thus far they have been outscored 13-2. Still, they sit in 2nd place a couple games behind St. Louis. The Brewers are starting Dave Bush today who has pitched very well in his first 3 starts and would be 3-0 if not for some shoddy bullpen work. Bush is very familiar with a many of the Cubs hitters as he's faced several of them at least 10 times. Fukudome and Soriano tend to hit him pretty well while Lee, Nady and Soriano have struggled against him.

The Cubs, while playing well this weekend, haven't played very well in 2010. They come into todays game at 8-10, 2 1/2 games back and with an opportunity to get into second in the NL Central. The Cubs are starting Randy Wells who has been a bright spot for the Cubs since coming over. Like Bush, Wells is a pitcher who started his career with the Blue Jays before ending up in the NL Central.

Braves vs. Mets ESPN

Hanson vs. Pelfrey

Interest Level:6

Another early season divisional battle. The Braves are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak that has taken them down to last in the NL East. They still have the talent to make a playoff run but things aren't exactly trending in the right direction currently. The Braves start their talented second year pitcher Tommy Hanson in this game. In his 3 starts so far, it appears that he has a shot to have a nice follow up to his rookie year. Also worth looking forward to is seeing what Jason Heyward will do next.

Ah, the New York Mets. The team that can't stay off the disabled list. Well, at least they haven't completely embarrassed themselves so far. Currently, the Mets are at 9-9 and tied for the Zombie Expos for third place. Mike Pelfrey takes the hill for the Mets in tonight's match-up. The sponsor of his baseball-reference page (Section 518) asks the question of is 2010 the year Mike Pelfrey realizes his potential. So, far the answer of that question seems to be yes as he's rocking a 3-0 record with a .86 era. If the Mets are going to stay in contention despite all of their health problems, they are probably going to need to get a breakout season from Mike Pelfrey.

Back From Vacation, Back To Previewing

So....i haven't written anything in a week. I was on vacation....had me a nice 4-day weekend. But now it's time to get back to business. With that......on to the games.

Phillies vs. Braves

Kendrick vs.Hanson Tuesday-MLB Network

TBD vs. Hudson- Wednesday ESPN

Interest Level: 7

This might be only the third week of the season, but this NL East match-up is still important. The Phillies have a razor-thin 1 game edge over the Braves. For the Phillies, they have Kendrick starting...he has been absolutely brutal in his first two starts.

The Braves are one of the more interesting teams in the league. Jason Heyward alone makes them worth watching as you never know what he's going to pull off. Both Hanson & Hudson are off to solid starts and if they keep it up....everyone's prediction of the Phillies running away with this division could turn out to be very wrong.

Royals vs. Blue Jays Wednesday MLB Network

Greinke vs. Marcum

Interest Level: 5

The Royals are off to a 5-7 start and considering the job their GM did in the off-season, this could pass as over-achieving. The Royals are giving reigning Cy Young award winner Zach Greinke the start. He is 0-2 this year but this can be attributed to the ineptness of the team around him and not Greinke himself as he has a respectable (though not 2009-level) 114 ERA+

The Blue Jays have gotten off to a better than expected 8-6 start. If they want to sustain this strong start or even stay above .500, they are going to need Shaun Marcum to stay healthy for throughout the season (having Vernon Wells continue to hit the cover off the ball wouldn't hurt either).

Indians vs. Twins Thursday MLB Network

Talbot vs. Baker

Interest Level: 7

A sneakingly interesting early AL Central Match-Up. The Twins have thus far taken their rightful place on top of the AL Central. This game gets extra points due to fantasy implications as J.J Hardy (hasn't done much since hitting a couple homers in the first week) and Michael Cuddyer (off to a nice start) are on my fantasy team. The Twins have Scott Baker starting...text-book definition of a solid but not great pitcher.

The Indians, expected to head straight to the cellar, have a fairly respectable 6-6 record. Speaking of my fantasy team, one player that has allowed the Indians to be respectable 6-6 and my team to be 2-0 is Shin-Soo Choo. Coming off a quietly strong 20-20 season....he's hit the ground running in 2010 and hit the cover off the ball (to the tune of a 240 OPS+!!!!). His last week was insane 11-19 3 Homers 11 RBIs 6 walks (that's a .680 OBP!!!!!!).....is it too early to talk MVP? Not according to this guy. But....one totally epic season does not win a division or allow you to be good (isn't that right Kansas City Royals?)...and some competency from the other 24 players is still needed.

The Indians start Mitch Talbot. He has 3 career starts under his belt. Two of them have come in 2010. So far, so good (1-1 3.21 era 120 ERA+). I'm not sure how sustainable this performance is but if he can continue to play fairly well and Shin-Soo Choo ends up breaking into the elite this year, the Indians could surprise some people this year.

Rangers vs. Red Sox Thursday MLB Network

Wilson vs. Bucholz

Interest Level:5

The Rangers have slogged to a 5-7 start thus far. Not too much about this team screams contender to me. The Rangers are starting C.J. Wilson in this one. Not sure how he will hold up the entire year as a starter (he spent the last 4 seasons exclusively in relief, 3 of them as a closer). One thing at least is for sure, you can't blame the Rangers slow start on Wilson (0-1 2.08 era 206 ERA+).....he even has a complete game under his belt....not bad for a player who has Ed Vosberg as his #1 comparable on baseball-reference.

I'm pretty sure not many people were expecting the Red Sox to start 4-9. Whether this is a sign of things to come or they are getting their worst stretch out of the way early, it is too early to tell. They have Clay Bucholz taking the hill for this game. Like Wilson, the Red Sox early struggles can't really be blamed on Bucholz as he has also started off well (1-1 1.80 era 242 ERA+). Are we in the middle of Clay Bucholz's breakout season? The Red Sox may need it if they want to be in contention.

Baseball On TV This Weekend

Braves vs. Giants Friday MLB Network

Hudson vs. Sanchez

Interest Level: 6

Will this be the beginning of Tim Hudson's bounce-back season? What will Jason Heyward do to help his team (As a side note, I am glad that the Braves bypassed the send him down for a couple months to bypass the arbitration rules, realized Heyward was their best option and let him start the season in Atlanta....I wouldn't be shocked to see the Braves awarded karmically with a post-season berth for not trying (poorly) to convince everyone that he needs time to "develop" his game say until late-May/early-June when he would "magically" be ready to face major-league pitching

The Giants counter with Jonathan Sanchez. Had an interesting '09 started poorly, threw a no-hitter, finished strong. Is this the start of a 2010 breakout season? On a side note, the Giants handled their prospect situation (Buster Posey) differently be sending him down to Triple-A despite a strong spring.

A's vs. Angels Saturday MLB Network

Sheets vs. Weaver

Interest Level: 9

This week has seen my first exposure to J.J Hardy in a non-Brewers uniform and it looks like our first exposure to Ben Sheets in a non-Brewers uniform. Of course, this is Sheets first big league appearance since 2008 and this step one of the journey to see whether Sheets is worth the investment and can he actually stay healthy for a full season. He has the talent, just a matter of staying healthy to make a full season worth of starts.

The Angels start Jered Weaver ( who happens to be the best MLB pitcher that I watched in-person while they were still in college---he was the starting pitcher for a Long Beach State vs. Cal Poly game I went to in 2003.....I don't know much about college baseball but I know that he DESTROYED Big West hitting)...and on a fantasy baseball note.....will Brandon Wood break out of his slump?

Yankees vs. Rays Saturday Fox, Sunday TBS

Sabathia vs. Davis Saturday

Burnett vs. Shields Sunday

Interest Level:4

Umpire Joe West made news this week by saying that the Yankees and Red Sox take too many timeouts and are making the length of games longer. Not sure how true that is but the Yankees and Rays took their sweet time determining who would be starting their games this weekend (single-handedly pushing back the posting of this post by a day)....Personally i'm more concerened with the Randy Levine vs.Mark Attanasio dispute over salary distribution. My take: once every team has their own network to run their games (YES Network) and a national network (ESPN) obsessed with their every move.....then he may have a point. Sure these things have nothing to do with the upcoming games but c'mon it's the Yankees, if you miss these games all you have to do is wait a couple of days.

Mariners vs. Rangers Saturday FOX

Hernandez vs. Harrison

Interest Level: 6

With FOX's regional coverage combined with living on the west coast....i'm probably stuck with this game and this game only regardless of personal preference. On the bright side, this should be my first chance to see this year's re-tooled Mariners team in action. Felix Hernandez, the reigning AL leader in Wins, Winning Percentage, Wild Pitches & Hits/9 Innnings gets start #2 of the season.

The Rangers counter with Matt Harrison who is making career start #27 but has yet to replicate the success of his Saturday counterpart. If nothing else, he has shown a high level of endurance as he threw 2 complete games in his 11 starts from '09 (good for 9th in the AL)

Brewers vs. Cardinals Saturday Fox, Sunday ESPN

See series preview post.

If Thursday is the New Friday than this is the preview for some televised early weekend games

So, originally I planned on previewing all of the weekend action (Thursday-Sunday) in one post but since TBD is tentatively scheduled to make several starts for several teams from Friday to Sunday, I decided to give Friday-Sunday its own post and break down what was left (tomorrow's MLB Network Triple-Header).

Dodgers vs. Pirates Thursday MLB Network

Billingsley vs. Malholm

Interest Level: 5

On paper this should be a mismatch in favor of the Dodgers but considering how the Pirates destroyed the Dodgers on Opening day, that isn't a given. Is this the start that allows Billingsley to bounce back from a weak 2009 season or do his struggles continue?

What to make of Malholm? He was a top-10 pick in 2003 but so far has been a fairly average pitcher. Is 2010 his breakout season? How long do the Pirates stay in first? Will Ryan Church stop driving in runs and allow me to rise above 11th place in a league with only 10 human teams?

Mariners vs. A's Thursday MLB Network

Fister vs. Anderson

Interest Level: 5

Doug Fister starts his first full season in the bigs (pitched in 11 games last year) against AL West Divisional Rival Oakland.

Brett Anderson is the main reason to pay attention to this game. He held his own in his rookie year last year and it's scary how good he could be within a couple of years (he's only 22). As good as he will be in a few years, the A's will be bad this year as they seem to replicate the as little offense as possible model as their neighbors on the other side of the bay, the Giants.

Not sure what Billy Beane was thinking when he DFA'd Jack Cust. He made his legacy/reputation on building a team around guys like Cust....sure other GMs eventually ripped off his strategies/methods making it harder for him to get the players he wanted. Seriously, this team was already power challenged before this DFA and getting rid of a player who's gone yard 84 times in the last 3 years is not going to help any.

Cubs vs. Braves Thursday MLB Network

Wells vs. Hanson

Interest Level: 6

A battle between a couple pitchers who had strong rookie years and are looking to avoid the sophomore slump. Hanson got the upper hand in the Rookie of the Year voting (3rd vs. 6th), came into the 2009 season with much more hype surrounding him......does he make this a clean sweep by ultimately producing more than Wells or will this 6-seed prevail in the end?

Finally.....Winter's Over....Here's some baseball games that will count

Well, it's FINALLY time for the 2010 baseball season. No more winter, no more spring training....time to see how this goes down....how my predictions (and everyone elses will stand up over the season).....and also how Chedderhead/My Razzball team and the random Cbssports.com fantasy league i'm in that I haven't talked about does.......

Yankees vs. Red Sox

Sunday (Sabathia vs. Beckett) ESPN 2

Tuesday (Burnett vs. Lester) MLBN

Wednesday (Pettite vs. Lackey) ESPN 2

On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 1

Like a bad TBS movie that they "give you 3 chances to watch" you get 3 chances to watch the Yankees take on the Red Sox. The Sunday game stands out because its the first game of the season that actually counts. In the context of this season, this series is fairly insignificant but i'm pretty sure ESPN is hyping it like the ALCS because to them, the other 28 teams might as well be Triple-A teams for all they care.....as evidenced by this 2007 expose by the Onion.

In all seriousness, I don't care who it is...baseball is back. You have ex-Brewer Sabathia taking the hill against Beckett who is currently in negotiations for a massive extension (will this keep him in contract year blow the world away mode?)

On Tuesday, MLB Network gets in on the fun as they show game 2 of this series. MLB Network gets a pass on the Red Sox-Yankees criticism I give ESPN as they are taking the step of showing all 30 teams within the first 30 days of the season.

Wednesday marks the first Red Sox start for John Lackey....does he justify the piles of money thrown at him last summer or not? We begin to find out Wednesday

Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Reds (Harang) Monday ESPN

On a scale of 1-10, my interest is: 6

A few interesting things here:

1) First look at a couple of NL Central rivals: The first look at a Cardinals team that just about everyone (except myself....and I don't see them missing by much) against a Reds team that is a perpetual sleeper in the NL Central

2) A first look at whether Chris Carpenter can replicate his strong 2009 season. Talent isn't the issue, the ability to stay healthy....well that's a completely different story......also he's one of my starters in the CBS league (Baseball, Beer and Bahkas) so i'll be a bit more interested in the results

3) Day 1 of Jay Bruce's breakout season: With Cliff Lee and Huston Street injured, someone is going to have to carry Cheddarhead on their shoulders, it might as well be Jay Bruce.

Indians (Westbrook) vs. White Sox (Buerhle) Monday ESPN2

On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 4

The Indians have lots of potential in 2010.....to be as bad or as worse than the Royals. If the Indians have any hope of making that last sentence sound horribly wrong, they are probably going to need Jake Westbrook to make more than 5 starts.

The White Sox on the other hand, have reasonable playoff expectations. They may not be a great team but then again they aren't in the strongest division either. Despite Joe Nathan being shelved for the season, I still think the Twins will win the division (barely.)

Another fun fact is that this game matches up 2 of the 3 pitchers who tied for the league in Hits Allowed in 2006. (The third player, Jon Garland gets the opening day nod for the Padres).

Cubs (Zambrano) vs. Braves (Lowe) Monday ESPN

On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 8

Well, the Cubs are involved so if nothing else I have a team to root against. Also, with Carlos Zambrano pitching you never quite know what your getting although this tends to equal itself out over each season as his ERA+ the last few years have been eerily similar (117,118,119) Usually an interesting and harmless experience unless you happened to be dressed like a Gatorade machine and Zambrano doesn't like the umpiring on a given day.

For the Braves, the have Derek Lowe taking the hill here. Lowe is coming off his worst year as a starter but I see him coming back strong in 2010....i'm confident enough in this assertion that he ended up on Chedderhead.

Giants (Lincecum) vs. Astros (Oswalt) Monday ESPN

On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a: 7

Good pitching match-up. Anytime Lincecum takes the hill, it's worth watching (right now he's my favorite non-Brewers player) because you never know whats going to happen. The Astros are looking to Roy Oswalt to anchor their staff this year.

From '01-'07 this would have been a fairly sound strategy. However, Oswalt's performance and his health have regressed a bit in the last couple years ......pretty much a microcosm of the Astors as a whole.

Twins vs. Angels

Baker vs. Weaver Tuesday MLB Network

Pavano vs. Santana Wednesday ESPN 2

On a scale of 1-10 my interest is a : 6

It should be interesting to see how the Twins come out of the gate. Will their saavy winter moves and the momentum of locking up Joe Mauer be the catalyst towards another playoff appearance. Or will the downgrade from Joe Nathan to whoever they have closing games bring them back to the pack.

For the Angels, will they rack up another AL West title or will the Mariners off-season moves allow them to overtake Los Angeles of Anaheim of North America of the Northern Hemisphere and be top of the class. To answer some of these questions but raise more questions than are actually answered, stay tuned to find out.

Brewers vs. Rockies Wednesday MLB Network

See, Brewers-Rockies Series Preview Post

NL East Preview Part II

Our standings after the first half:

Phillies 17

Braves 22

Nationals 25

Marlins 27

Mets 29

Starting Rotation:

Phillies-4

Braves-8

Marlins-12

Mets-16

Nationals-20

The Phillies by far are best off in the rotation. Halladay ends up in Philly (finally) and it would be shock if he isn't one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. While Hamels didn't exactly light the world on fire in 2009 which was aided more by a high BABIP against and not on him suddenly turning into a mediocre pitcher. Blanton is your protypical mid-rotation pitcher...no better no worse. There's absolutely no way J.A. Happ replicates his breakthrough year but at the same time he's a better #4 option than anyone else has.

The Braves may be weak in the star-power at the top of the rotation but make up for it with depth. There's no way Lowe struggles as much this year as last, Hanson and Jurrjens are likely to come down a little bit from strong 2009 seasons but that doesn't change the fact that both of them are legit pitchers. Hudson pitched well after coming back from injury but 42 innings is too early to tell whether he can stay healthy and whether he can return to his dominant form.

Josh Johnson may not be a household name like Halladay or Santana but if 2009 is any indication, he could be within the discussion for best pitcher in the NL East this year. Nolasco should bounce back after struggles connected more to bad luck than being a bad pitcher. Volstad should hold his own as a #3 but beyond that don't expect much from the Marlins rotation.

For the Mets, its Santana and.....not much else. Maine and Pelfrey are pretty mediocre pitchers, Oliver Perez is an asset to Razzball and anyone that's a fan of pitchers who think the strike zone is a foreign concept.

The Nationals have John Lannan and Jason Marquis as their top two starters......and it gets worse from there......ouch

Bullpen

Mets-4

Braves-8

Phillies-12

Nationals-16

Marlins-20

Not too crazy about what any of these teams have with the game on the line. The Mets do have K-Rod.....while he does make lots of money and racks up lots of saves....i'm not quite sold on him as being elite.....but he has been relatively healthy (Unlike Wagner) and has never racked up blown saves and 7-plus ERAs like they were going out of style (Brad Lidge....cough....cough) so the Mets get this one by default.

Final Rankings

Phillies-33

Braves-38

Mets-49

Marlins-59

Nations-61

No surprises with the top two, no surprise that the Mets are nowhere near the top, not surprising the Nationals are at the bottom....the only difference between conventional thought and the final rankings is how low the Marlins are ranked.

NL East Preview Part I

Last but not least, the NL East:

Catcher:

Brian McCann-1

Carlos Ruiz-2

John Baker-3

Ivan Rodriguez-4

Rod Barajas-5

McCann wins this.....by a lot. The only catcher that you could definitely say is better than McCann is Joe Mauer. Since Joe Mauer plays in the AL Central, McCann is the #1 catcher in both the NL East and on Chedderhead. After McCann, it's the lesser of four evils....Ruiz has some decent upside but if he hasn't broken out already at 31 that's sort of a red light. I-Rod has had a great career and if we were talking about overall bodies of work he would be number 1 but he has seen better days. I could see Rod Barajas working out as a good signing, if he was a left handed hitter playing at Yankee Stadium. However, he ended up on a team that plays their home games at a stadium that suppresses his one strength (hitting home runs) which may explain how he ended up on my Razzball team.

First Base

1-Ryan Howard

2-Adam Dunn

3-Daniel Murphy

4-Troy Glaus

5-Gaby Sanchez

Howard continued to establish himself as one of the elite hitters in the game in 2009. I see no reason why this won't continue into the new decade. Adam Dunn has been and continues to be the Mr. 3TO.......Drawing Walks, Hitting Homers, Striking Out....Dunn has his game down to the basics. On name recognition, Glaus would get the nod over Murphy but a) it's tough to tell whether he will stay healthy all year and b) even if he is healthy, it's unclear whether he will return to form

Second Base

1-Chase Utley

2-Dan Uggla

3-Martin Prado

4-Adam Kennedy

5-Luis Castillo

Another position, another Phillies player amongst the elite of the game. Uggla has established himself as Adam-Dunn lite. Hits for a very pedestrian average, hits plenty of homers (30-ish but not as much as Dunn) he is drawing walks at an increased rate (14% vs. 18% for Dunn) but then again the power standards for second basemen is lower than for first baseman.

Shortstop

1-Hanley Ramirez

2-Jimmy Rollins

3-Yunel Escobar

4-Jose Reyes

5-Ian Desmond

One word.....LOADED. Han-Ram gives you 30-30 potential in any given year and makes a strong case for the best shortstop in the bigs (he even got drafted 1st overall in the league that Cheddarhead plays in). Yes, Jimmy Rollins had a rough season, it still seems odd that he won an MVP and doesn't draw very many walks. However, his struggles look to be linked to low BABIP and he should bounce-back strong in 2010. Escobar is a young talented player and will likely overtake Rollins as a player within a few years, I just don't think it happens this year. Jose Reyes is talented enough to be higher but with the injury problems he is facing/will inevitably face all year and the fact that the Mets fall back plan is Alex Cora, I can't really justify ranking him higher.

Third Base

1-Ryan Zimmerman

2-David Wright

3-Chipper Jones

4-Jorge Cantu

5-Placido Polanco

Seems to be a trend in the NL East where the best player by position is the best by a lot not a little. When that player happens to be the starting third baseman for Chedderhead, even better. Tough to tell what to expect out of David Wright in '10. He's still reliable to hit for a good average but whether his power remains at 2009 levels or returns to historical norms remains to be seen. His hr/fb% dropped last year which also coincided with moving to Citi Field. Too early to tell whether his power drop resulted just bad luck or the stadium. Regardless, this area of doubt is enough to drop him well behind Zimmerman but above Jones whose name recognition has overtaken production, Cantu who had one really good season and many indicators showing that his 2008 level of production is unlikely to replicate himself

Left Field

1-Josh Willingham

2-Raul Ibanez

3-Jason Bay

4-Matt Diaz

5-Chris Coghlan

An overall uninspiring group. I will always associate Josh Willingham as the guy who hit grand slams in consecutive innings off Jeff Suppan (making him single-handedly responsibility for my least favorite Brewers moment of the year). Given a chance to start he has a decent chance to go yard 30-35 times. Ibanez had a nice 2009....his home run totals were inflated by an abnormally high hr/fb ratio and had nothing to do with the weak steroid speculation or the bloggers that Ibanez thinks all live in their mothers basement. Jason Bay is a free agent bust waiting to happen. A combination of decreasing contact percentage (he dropped from 76% to 69% last year......only 3% away from becoming a Bill Hall All-Star) and moving to Citi Field where power goes to die.....a pretty good chance this goes down as another bad Mets contract before all is said and done.....also a generous ranking at 3rd....Also not sold on Coghlan replicating his Rookie of the Year Season.

Center Field

1-Nate McLouth

2-Carlos Beltran

3-Shane Victorino

4-Nyjer Morgan

5-Cameron Maybin

Another less than inspiring crop. McLouth is a decent player but definitely not a superstar. On talent and name-brand recognition Beltran should win this hands down but I have little to no faith in his ability to stay healthy. Victorino (like Bay) is a player i've never been too high on (being the same guy that hit a grand slam off C.C. Sabathia in the 2008 NLDS that made it official that the Brewers playoff appearance was only going to be a cameo don't help either) but get's the #3 spot by default. Not sold on Morgan replicating his strong 2009 season and not sold on Maybin.

Right Field

1-Jayson Werth

2-Cody Ross

3-Melky Cabrera

4-Elijah Dukes

5-Jeff Francoeur

Lost in all the Phillies firepower from players like Ibanez, Howard and Utley the fact that Werth hit 36 homers got lost in the mix. He comes back this year with an epic beard, a contract to play for and secondary numbers that indicate his power spike is legit....could he be dark horse MVP candidate.....not as crazy as it sounds. Cody Ross seems like a slighty improved version of Mike Cameron (at least as a hitter) slighty better average .260 range and 25 homers......but nothing that stands out....(well unless Ross hits 4 of said homers in a game or ever plays drunk and tells the media about it). Speaking of Mike Cameron, the player he almost (and thankfully) didn't get traded straight up for in the winter of 2008-2009 Cabrera gets the #3 spot mostly due to his competition being Dukes who seems determined to not live up to his talent and one of the members of my Razzball team, Jeff Francoeur.

Standings after Part I:

Phillies 17

Braves 22

Nationals 25

Marlins 27

Mets 29

Sports/Music Crossover Column: Alice In Chains

Just recently, one of my favorite bands from the 90s, Alice In Chains released their first album since the mid-90s. You all know what this means.....time for another Sports/Music Crossover column where I use songs from Alice In Chains to discuss recent developments in the sports world that I want to discuss but not necessarily devote an entire post to with that it's time to rock out

"Down In A Hole"--Winless NFL Teams Browns, Titans, Chiefs, Panthers, Buccaneers and Rams

Well these teams are down in a hole for sure. 4 weeks into the NFL season and they are yet to win a game. Some of these teams are a victim of bad luck (Titans) others are in legitimate danger of being the second 0-16 team in NFL history (Rams, Chiefs, Browns) but all have the common theme of this being a lost season. For these teams they are unlikely to be talking about playoffs and probably talking about who they can draft to turn around their fortunes in 2010.

"A Little Bitter"-- Myself after Monday's Packers-Vikings game

I can take the multiple retirements. I would have eventually forgiven the Jets stint. This is the culmination of one of the most unforgivable acts in sports. When Favre signed with the Vikings I thought to myself it's okay he's got nothing left, the Vikings will be terrible anyways....well the Vikings are 4-0 Favre schooled the Packers D...and it looks like for the second straight season one aspect of the Packers (the O-Line) is going to doom a talented team to a terrible season. On the bright side 3/4ths of the season is still left the Packers have a bye week to recover and if recent history holds up.....the interception parade will eventually begin in Minnesota.

"Lying Season"--Dez Bryant-- failure to disclose interaction with Deion Sanders

Well this officially ends Oklahoma States one chance at greatness. Dez Bryant was THE star player of an Oklahoma State team that was supposed to have its coming out party. Instead, Dez Bryant doesn't disclose/lies about meeting with Deion Sanders and he is now ineligible to play. For Oklahoma State it's back to another few decades of going 7-5 and playing meaningless bowl games two days after Christmas. On a personal note, it puts my fantasy team in flux as he was one of my best players and I have to scramble to find someone to replace his production.

"Got Me Wrong"--Philip Hughes/Yankees Bullpen

So this morning I finished my post previewing the Yankees-Twins series. In this post I gave the edge to the Twins bullpen and didn't speak too positively of the Yankees bullpen beyond Mariano Rivera. A funny thing happened, I go to the gym and the Yankees-Twins game is on, Hughes comes in the 7th inning in a 6-2 game with 2 men on Mauer on Deck facing Orlando Cabrera, they get into an epic match-up where Cabrera is fouling off pitch after pitch....and Hughes strikes out Cabrera on a 3-2 count....effectively stopping the Twins best opportunity to get back into the game.....for at least a day Hughes has proven me wrong.

"Over Now"-- MLB Regular Season

As always it was a fun ride but all things come to an end eventually. For me 2009 will be remembered for a few things. 1) MLB Networks rookie and breakout season. 2) My first extended encounter with MLB.tv.........probably one of the greatest innovations in recent memory and 3) Stunned that Braden Looper somehow led the Brewers in wins 4) Zach Greinke's amazing season.....I don't care how bad the Royals are, Greinke deserves the Cy Young Award 5) Pablo Sandoval's breakout season........it's not every year a player comes through that can go yard off of pitches that aren't even close to being strikes.....

"So Close"--Tigers/Braves

To the teams who got their playoff hopes crushed last. To the Tigers....you were up 7 games in September....even worse, your going to be mentioned in the same sentence as the '07 Mets.....OUCH.

To the Braves...you kicked it into high gear too late...you were hanging around the fringes of the race...got hot for a few weeks....the only mistake you made was not being in the NL Central where you could play .500 ball for 140 games only to get hot for the last 20 or so games.

"Again"-Trevor Hoffman

Well we were barely one day into the off-season and the Brewers wasted no time in re-signing Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman had an excellent season as a closer in '09. I can't wait to see Hoffman closing for the Brewers again in '10 as they try to bounce back from a lackluster season.

"Put You Down"--Twins over Tigers

The Tigers had things like a commanding lead in the AL Central and in the AL Central Tie-Breaker game...but with the Twins finding new ways to win on a daily basis...they were able to put down the Tigers and get into the playoffs

"No Excuses"-- University of Houston Defense

Alright so the University of Houston isn't a defensive juggernaut. They are known more for their high profile offense. Still, it is inexcusable to give up 58 points to a weak UTEP team. It would be one thing if they gave up this amount to an elite team such as Texas, Oklahoma, etc....but UTEP is not what would be considered an elite team.......i've watched them in "action" a couple times and they are not what I would call an offensive juggernaut. Thanks for trying to break the BCS-Barrier this year Houston and next year, come back with a competent Defense........In terms of Non-BCS schools.....TCU and Boise are the last hopes.

A Fan of Close Pennant Races? Tuesday was not your lucky day

As the title indicates, Tuesday did nothing to ensure that this year's pennant races would go down to a photo finish.

It didn't look that way initially as the Twins were able to squeak out a win over the Tigers in the first game of their double-header. However, in the second game the Tigers were able to stretch their lead back to 2 games as Justin Verlander pitched just well enough to let the Tigers hold on to beat the Twins.

The Twins still aren't out of it yet. If they can pull out victories tonight and Thursday we will be going into the weekend with a tied AL Central. Personally, i'm indifferent towards who wins the AL Central, I just want to see an interesting last weekend in baseball.

In the NL Wild Card race, things didn't go so great on Tuesday. The Braves ended up losing a close one to the Marlins 5-4. Meanwhile, the Brewers went into Colorado with a chance to make an impact on the race and keep it close. Unfortunately, they played more like the 77-80 team that they are than a team with any sense of motivation.

While it's nothing more than a consolation......they at least forced extra innings. The Brewers went into the 9th down 5-2 and tied it on wait for it.........(a Jason Kendall three-run homer).....and no that's not a typo.....Jason Kendall actually did something productive offensively by hitting a game-tying home run.

However, this being the Brewers and all, they found a way to not win last nights game. For this, they turned to veteran reliever Dave Weathers who gave-up the walk off home run to Chris Iannetta.

Well what does this say for todays game? For the Twins, it's pretty much a must-win game tonight against the Tigers. While losing tonight won't equate to mathematical elimination, tonights pitching match-up favors the Twins and if they lose tonight they'll likely be dead-team walking tomorrow.

For the Braves, they are more or less in win-out or else mode. For the Rockies, well they tend to find new ways to win games and they get a chance to tee-off against Jeff Suppan so all they need to do is continue what they are doing.

Javier Vasquez > Mediocre (Well at least in 2009)

Alright, So I stumbled across an article on mlbnotebook.com today that discusses the success of some of Braves starting pitchers Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens.

While the majority of the article was spot on, there was a small part regarding Javier Vasquez that would have been true in the past, but doesn't really reflect how he's pitched in 2009.

I 've already commented on Lowe not being the ace Atlanta hoped he would be. Lowe hasn't done much since then to alter that opinion. He's been up and down this season when Atlanta hoped he'd be up all season. Javier Vazquez has been equally mediocre this season, but with a better ERA. Despite the disappointment found in the less than ace-like performances of Lowe and Vazquez, two new aces are emerging for the Braves

First off, the article is accurate in that Lowe has been a disappointment. Second, while Vasquez has had many seasons where the assessment of him as a mediocre pitcher would be accurate, 2009 has not been one of those years. When you break it down by the numbers, Vasquez has performed either the same or better than Hanson and Jurrgens in several statistical areas.

I'll start with the most telling stat, ERA plus to show where Hanson, Jurrgens and Vasquez rank in the context of this season.

ERA+

Hanson-147

Jurrgens-142

Vasquez-136

So, Vasquez ranks last out of the three in this. Still, his performance is still in the same ball park as Hanson and Jurrgens. Still, within the context of the rest of the league, his era is 36% above league average. Vasquez is definitely not guilty of mediocrity in this aspect.

Next, there's the part where Vasquez has pitched well enough to be in the top 10 in several pitching metrics this year

WHIP--4th 1.062

When the only pitchers giving up less base runners per inning are Haren, Carpenter and Lincecum, you aren't just better than mediocre, you are having a very excellent season. Alright so Vasquez ain't headed towards Cooperstown with his overall body of work...but placed in the context of 2009 he'd be more likely to get Cy Young consideration than to be placed with the mediocre tag.

Walks/9 IP-1.911 -5th

Strikeouts/9 IP-9.940-4th

Strikeouts-208-2nd

Strikeouts/Base On Balls-5.2-2nd

For this year (at least) Vasquez has displayed a rare combination of not walking very many people while racking up a high amount of strikeouts. Considering that only 6 pitchers (including Vasquez) have even managed to strike out 4 for every 1 that they walk.......Vasquez should be getting more attention for having a great season.

In all fairness, Vasquez success this season has gone highly under the radar. It took me a couple of months to realize that he had the chance to have a season like this. I didn't really catch on to him being in the leader board for strikeouts until somewhere around the beginning of June.

If Vasquez would have either a) gotten more run support (and wins) or b) playing for a playoff bound team........he would be getting at least some Cy Young attention that's currently being split between the Cards and Giants 1-2 combos.

Weekend Baseball Preview: As Much As I Like the NFL, Baseball Still Comes First

Well, we're another weekend closer to the playoffs.....yet there is more baseball yet to be played...some of it relevant....some of it not so much. As always, games are rated on a scale from 1-5....with that, let the games begin.

Mets vs. Phillies -Saturday FOX/Sunday ESPN =2

Saturday [Pelfrey vs. Happ]

Sunday [Redding vs. Martinez]

Well these two teams are heading in opposite directions. It's tough to tell what's been more disapointing this season for the Mets, their team or their new stadium. The Phillies look to be headed to the playoffs for the third straight season. They have a solid chance to win the title for the second straight year (although I have a gut feeling that Brad Lidge will pitch the Phils out of it at some point)

Saturday the Mets start Mike Pelfrey who has had an uninspring season. He goes up against J.A. Happ who is having an excellent season and looks to be a star in this league for years to come. It is definitely easy to see why the Phillies would not give him up (even for Roy Halladay)

On Sunday the Mets start Tim Redding (who's somehow made 13 starts this year....seriously he's still pitching in the bigs?)....the Phillies counter with ex-Met Pedro Martinez who has pitched solid since coming back from injury.

White Sox vs. Angels- Saturday FOX

(Danks vs. Santana)= 2.5

White Sox management seems to have thrown in the towel by trading Jim Thome, but they have shown a strong ability to play well against teams fighting for a post-season spot as evidenced by them taking 3 of 4 from Boston last weekend. The Angels have a 4 1/2 game lead over Texas in the west and seem headed towards another post-season appearance.

The White Sox are starting John Danks who has had a solid season. Even though the White Sox are the weaker team, anytime Danks starts the White Sox have a chance to beat superior competition. The Angels start Ervin Santana who has followed up a strong 2008 by having a horrible season. Even though the Angels are the better team, the White Sox definitely have the upper hand for at least Saturday.

Braves vs. Cardinals =3

(Hudson vs. Lohse)

The Braves are fighting for their NL East and Wild Card lives while the Cardinals are cruising with a large lead over the joke that is the rest of the NL Central.

The Braves start Tim Hudson who is making his 3rd start of the season. Hudson's return bolsters an already strong Braves rotation....unfortunately for the Braves, it seems to be too little too late. The Cardinals counter with Kyle Lohse who is doing what Kyle Lohse has always done....eat innings at the back of the rotation and making sure the 4/5 spot is in decent shape.

Dodgers vs. Giants---Saturday MLB Network/Sunday TBS

(Padilla vs. Sanchez)

(Billingsley vs. Penny)

The Dodgers are struggling at the wrong time of the season and have seen their once insurmountable NL West lead sink to 2 1/2 games. The Giants have also picked a bad time to struggle and are quickly fading behind the Rockies for the Wild Card lead.

Saturday, the Dodgers start Vicente Padilla who has actually pitched well since being cut by the Rangers. The Giants counter with Sanchez who has pitched well in the second-half and is coming off a strong no-decision versus Milwaukee last weekend.

Sunday, the Dodgers start Billingsley who has quietly had a solid season (even though he leads the NL with wild pitches), the Giants start Brad Penny who pitched terrible in Boston, but has pitched like a star in his first two Giants starts. Come to think about, a lot of AL pitchers have gotten cut for being terrible only to factor in NL teams playoff hopes.....even Vicente Padilla.....point being the Giants need Penny to continue his hot streak to keep the Giants postseason hopes alive.

The (Late) Weekend Preview

Well , it's coming a day later than usual.....but the weekend preview is here....as always games are ranked on a scale of 1-5.....and with that.....let the games begiiiiiin

Dodgers [Haeger] vs. Reds [Maloney] Saturday FOX =2

These teams have had very opposite seasons. Despite their recent struggles, the Dodgers are still the team to beat in the NL West and start the weekend with a 4-game lead. The start knuckleballer Charlie Haeger who pitched very impressively last weekend against the Cubs, getting his first win of the season. The Reds [despite their sweep of the Brewers] are still a team going nowhere and nowhere fast....despite playing well enough to be within striking distance in the first half of the season....they still sit a whopping 16 games under .500.....they counter with rookie Matt Maloney who is making his fourth start and still seeking his first ML win...thus far his closest claim to ML fame was being traded for Kyle Lohse in 2007.....another fun fact is if you look up Matt Maloney on wikipedia it defaults to the ex-Houston Rocket of the same name.....

Mets [Parnell] vs. Cubs [Dempster] =2---Saturday FOX

A match-up between two teams who have played worse than expected this year. The Mets have been decimated by injuries and start Bobby Parnell who has pitched primarily in the bullpen this year. The Cubs counter with Ryan Dempster.....who has regressed back to his career averages...not the best way to follow-up a career year and the ensuing contract extension.....

Rays [Price] vs. Tigers [Robertson] =3.5 Saturday FOX

Not the most exciting match-up...but it gets bumped up a point since there are playoff implications. The Rays are sitting 3 1/2 games out of the wild-card starts David Price. The Tigers are up 4 games in the AL Central and they are giving Nate Robertson his first start of the season...

Giants [Zito] vs. Rockies [Marquis]---Saturday MLB Network =4

Easily the best game on TV this weekend. The Giants and Rockies are in a battle for the wild card spot. As of this writing, the Rockies are up 3 games. It will take a lot to out-do the series they had last week culminating in a 14th inning grand slam.

White Sox [Garcia] vs. Yankees [Chamberlain] = 2 Sunday TBS

This game gets a point knocked off because the Yankees are involved. The White Sox despite struggling this year are still only 4 games behind the Tigers. They trot-out injury prone Freddy Garcia who is making his 3rd start of the season. The Yankees trot out Joba Chamberlain.....who is definitely gets more hype/publication than than he would if he didn't play in New York.....but hey not if you lead the league in hit batsmen....well i can't think of anything else significant he's done this year

Braves [Jurrjens] vs. Phillies [Blanton] = 3.5 Sunday ESPN

A Solid NL-East battle to finish off the weekend. The Braves bring in start Jurrjens who has pitched much better than his 10-8 record. The Phillies counter with Joe Blanton...a very prototypical mid-rotation pitcher....the Braves need to take at least 2 of 3 this weekend as they are sitting 7 back in the NL East and need to go on a tear to make a deeper impact on the wild card..........

The Thursday Post

Well it's Thursday and that means time to look ahead to another weekend of baseball games..........as always games are ranked on a scale of 1 to 5......and let the games begin

Phillies vs. Braves-Saturday [TBD vs. Kawakami] FOX =4
Sunday [TBD vs. Vasquez] ESPN =4

Definitely one of the better series this weekend. The Phillies have gotten a bit complacent lately letting half of their NL East lead in a recent sweep against the Marlins. The Phils have not decided who to pitch this weekend.

For the Braves, they have played some of their best ball in the last couple of weeks, breaking away from .500 land. They still have work to do as they still sit at 4 1/2 back. It will be interesting to see if Kawakami can follow up his strong start in L.A. with another clutch start on Saturday. On sunday, they bring out Javier Vasquez who is quietly having his best season this year.

Phillies win Saturday, Braves win Sunday

Giants [Cain] vs. Mets [Santana]- Saturday FOX = 3.5

This match-up gets an extra point and a half due to the pitching match-up. While the Mets have two strikes against them [they play in New York and not being good] the Mets are worth watching in this game solely due to Johan Santana getting the start.

The Giants are in a year long experiment to see how inept a team can be offensively while still making the playoffs. While Tim Lincecum has gotten his well-deserved respect for helping this cause along, Matt Cain is having a MONSTER season and has played a big part into why the Giants are within striking distance [ 1 1/2 games back] of the wild card.

Giants win this game 1-0

Indians [Huff] vs. Twins [TBD] =2

This match-up looked a lot better before the season began. At this point of the season, not so much. This is the teams first meeting after consummating that epic trade bringing Carl Pavano to Minnesota.

The Skeleton Indians start a rookie named David Huff who i've never even heard of. Looking at his stats it's easy to see since he's having by all stretches of the imagination, a terrible year [6-6 6.72 era 68 ERA+]

The Twins have yet to decide who they're starting but does it matter. While they are only 5 games back, they seem to be going nowhere and through the motions.......if they're gonna make a run...sweeping the skeleton Indians would be a good first step.

Whoever the Twins start is getting themselves a win.

Rangers vs. Red Sox [Penny vs. Holland] Saturday MLB Network =4
[Tazawa vs. Nippert] Sunday TBS


The pitching match-ups may not be top notch but this game has very heavy wild card implications. As of this writing, the Red Sox are clinging to a 1/2 game wild card lead over the rangers. The Red Sox had a terrible weekend in New York but bounced back by taking 3 out of 4 from the Tigers.

This will be a close and high scoring series. Both teams have loaded offenses and will be going up against pitchers that just aren't that good. The Red Sox will probably will do just enough pitching wise to pull out the series win.

Weekend Preview: The Post-Trade Deadline Addition

Another weekend is upon us which means another preview of this weekend's televised Baseball action.....games are ranked 1-5 based on the compelling-ness of the match-up


Saturday FOX Afternoon (Regional)

Yankees (Burnett) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2

Yankees......zzzzzz......wake me in the playoffs. White Sox.....lucky for them they are playing in a weak AL Central and sit only 3 games out despite struggling most of the season.

Expect Good Games Out of: Paul Konerko, Jorge Posada
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Jeter

Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Braves (Lowe) = 3

Dodgers are crusing through the NL West. Braves have been up and down this year and have ex-Dodger Derek Lowe pitching for them.

Expect Good Game Out of: Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Juan Pierre

Royals (TBD) vs. Rays (Niemann) =1

Decent Rays team fighting for wild-card against a Royals team that has taken up permanent residency as irrelevents.....to think it was only may when the Royals were in first and the Onion wrote an article about the Royals not being able to find themselves in the standings


Expect Good Game out of: Jeff Niemann
Don't Expect Good Game out of: The Royals

Saturday night MLB Game

Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) =4

Sure these teams aren't great but this game does carry pennant race implications. The Cards are tied for the Cubs for first while the Astros are tied with the Brewers at 4 games out of first.....the Astros might be the weaker team on paper but they do tend to play really well the last couple months of the year.....definitely the best game out of the televised action on Saturday.

Expect Good Games out of: Ivan Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Don't Expect Good Games out of: Miguel Tejada, Brendan Ryan

Sunday TBS Game:

Phillies (Hamels) vs. Giants (Zito) =3.5

Potential playoff preview. The Phillies just acquired Cliff Lee for a lot less than what the Blue Jays were asking....the Phillies (along with the Dodgers) look to be the teams to beat in the National League...the Giants suprising season plugs along as they are clinging on to the Wild Card lead.....Ryan Garko may not be Cliff Lee but he should make a positive impact in the starting line up

Expect Good Games Out of: Jimmy Rollins
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: Bengie Molina, Raul Ibanez

Dodgers (Billingsley) vs. Braves (Jurrgens) = 3.5

Good weekend ending match-up. Sold starter in Billingsley versus Jair Jurrjens who is quietly having a much better season (155 ERA+) than his 9-7 record would indicate

Expect Good Game Out of: Jair Jurrjens
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Ryan Church

Weekend Preview: Start of the second half

Well, the all-star break is over (thankfully) and the second part of this exciting baseball season is upon us. Also, the weekend is upon us which means another preview of all of the exciting (and not so exciting) action....as always the games are rated from 1 to 5 as follows

1=take a nap
2=if you got nothing better to do
3=worth at least a look
4=pretty compelling match up
5=must-see

Saturday:

Mets (Santana) vs. Braves (Kawakami) =3

First match up between these two teams since they consummated the epic Church for Francoeur trade. The Mets have their ace Johan Santana pitching for them against Kawakami who sometimes pitches like an ace....Both teams have underachieved this year (especially the Mets) and both teams need to get hot.....like now if they're going to have any legitimate post-season hopes....the Mets might be the more dysfunctional team but Santana will get them a win in this one

Orioles (Guthrie) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2

Decent pitching match-up, two pretty uninspiring teams. The O's have the pieces together to contend.....in a couple of years.....the White Sox still have a chance despite a mediocre first half as they are 3 1/2 back in a weak AL central. The Sox have the better team and better starter going Saturday...which means they'll win this one easily

Angels (Weaver) vs. Athletics (Mazzaro) =1

Hmm...first place team with their best pitcher going or some no-name pitcher on a last place team that will get even less attention and be worse once they inevitably trade Matt Holliday.....Angels in a blow out

Twins (Baker) vs. Rangers (Feldman)=2

A game with two teams who are quietly in contention. Both teams are solid, not too inspiring and are likely to fade from the pennant race at some point during the summer. Rangers win this one and hold off their fade for another day.

Sunday

Tigers (Verlander) vs. Yankees (TBD) =3.5

Possible play-off preview. Would have been rated higher but the Yankees are on more often than Every Loves Raymond reruns...which makes this a not as compelling match-up. This Tigers are surprisingly in first-place this year and having Justin Verlander as a staff ace helps this along. I usually rank Yankees games lower by default but Verlander alone is worth watching at least part of this game. The Tigers get one step closer to winning the title in this one and the Yankees loosen their grip on the wild card lead.

Mets (Nieve) vs. Braves (Vasquez) =2.5

Uninspiring match-up between two uninspiring teams. Javier Vasquez has been quietly dominant this year (he's been way better than his 6-7 record indicates) .....I see him having no trouble with the Mets depleted lineup....wouldn't be surprised if he completely dominates this game.

I'm shocked that the Mets made a bad trade.......oh wait no i'm not

Yesterday, the Mets traded Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. This trade caught me off-guard for a couple of reasons. First of all, the Mets and Braves being NLeast rivals don't like each other and it seems odd that they would be trading partners at any-time let alone July. Second, both of these teams are in the purgatory of not sure whether they will be contenders or are they going to fade mode as both teams have been hanging around .500 but still somewhat realistic post-season hopes and this trade makes it unclear whether these teams are in buy or sell mode.

Also, at a macro-level glance it isn't overly obvious who the winner and who the loser in this trade is going to be. Pretty much, two outfielders having bad seasons are switching places in some experiment to see if change of scenery will benefit the involved parties.

After taking a closer look...the Braves are more likely to be the winners in this trade and here's why:

If nothing else, the Braves got rid of a player (Francoeur) who's basically turned into an offensive liability. With Francoeur, his career has been marred by lots of unfulfilled promise and potential. His best year was his rookie year(2005) when he had a line of .300/.336/.549 126 OPS+. Unfortunately for both the Braves and Francoeur, he has not even come close to repeating his promising start. It seems that once the league figured him out (i.e. he'll swing at just about anything) his performance has gotten progressively worse. Despite having a decent amount of power (he hit 29 Homers in '06)...he has been a below average hitter for the duration of his career 89 OPS+(translation: he's been 11% worse than a league average hitter for his career)

Even that does not tell the whole story, the trends from the last couple years indicate that he's getting worse, not better (which tends to happen at 35, not 25). After a decent 2007.....he has followed that up with a 72 OPS+ and a trip to the minors in '08 and a 68 OPS+ in '09.....out of players averaging 3.1 plate appearances per team game....that ranks him 88th.....out of 94..he's hitting so bad that he's less useful than less talented players with no pop in their bat (i.e. David Eckstein) and even players who are hitting below the mendoza line (i.e. Chris Young)

playing in the pitching-friendly CitiBank Park in New York......i don't see his performance going any better......(on the plus side none of the other non-injured mets players are hitting very well...so he should fit in well in the clubhouse)

While the player he got traded for Ryan Church is not a hall of famer or even has the raw talent of Francoeur his entire body of work indicates that he'll at least be serviceable. While he doesn't have the raw talent and power of Francoeur, he has also distinguished himself from Francoeur by being fairly consistent and being better (albeit slightly) than average (108 OPS+ career). While he's having his worst year so far (excluding 2004 when he only had 71 plate appearances) some of the other metrics from this year indicate that unlike Francoeur, he has not fallen off the cliff.

While he is older, Church is still only 30. Also, where Francoeur's batting and on-base average indicate that Francoeur is getting worse, Church is at least hitting for contact this season (even if his power is non-existent)

He at least draws some walks (not many but a lot when compared to Francoeur). Also, his batting average is in-line with a typical season for him (.280). While he's been a disappointment this year, the indicators point to the Braves getting the better end in the trade.

Pretty much, the Braves will get average performance with Ryan Church while the Mets are getting one of the leagues worst hitters in Jeff Francoeur.

Weekend Preview: The Pre All-Star Edition

It's Thursday.....which means it's time for my post previewing the games on tap for this weekend...the last weekend before the all-star exhibition game.... As always the games are rated from 1(yawn inducing) to 5 (must-see) and with that said.....let the games begin

Saturday FOX Regional Action

Yankees (Pettite) vs. Angels (J.Weaver) = 3

Potential playoff preview that got knocked down a point solely because I dislike the Yankees and they're on TV too much. With that said, this should be a good match up. The Yankees are making my prediction of their 3rd place finish looking worse by the day and are creeping up on the Red Sox (which will inevitably lead to ESPN slobbering over the next Yankees-Red Sox match-up more than usual...if that's even possible)......the Angels are in a tight race with the Rangers in the AL West....Angels will probably be playing with a chip on their shoulder since they're coming off being schooled by Andruw Jones and the Rangers.....Angels win this in a close one

Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Cubs (Lilly) =3

Another compelling game that I don't have interest in since I do not like either team (not to the game....I just don't like them)....the Cards are coming off winning 2 out of 3 in Milwaukee(grrrrr.......) and they have Chris Carpenter who has returned to form since returning from injury.....the Cubs are lurking at 3 1/2 games out of first and 101 years since their last title....they have All-Star Ted Lilly going to the hill....should be a low scoring affair and a good pitching match-up........if there was a way for these teams to lose to each other....that would be awesome but since someone has to win it will probably be the Cards (writing those words makes me nauseous)

Saturday night MLB (The most awesome channel ever) Network Game


Braves (Jurrgens) vs. Rockies (Marquis) = 3.5

Not the most compelling match up at first sight but it gets more interesting when looking at it at a closer level. The Braves have been hovering at or a couple games below .500 all season but are only sitting four games back. Playing in an underachieving NLeast if they get hot for a few weeks they could get themselves into first place. With a rotation headed by Jurrgens and Vasquez, that's not out of the question.

Speaking of teams who struggled for a couple months than got it together, they are facing the Rockies. Six good weeks and a managerial change has transformed the Rockies from NL West bottom feeders to fighting the Giants for second place and the wild card. The Rockies have an over-supported and decent (but not 1o-wins great)(wins and win-loss records are such over-ratted stats btw) Jason Marquis going for them Saturday.

Sunday TBS Game

Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Brewers (Gallardo) =4

Another possible play-off match up (well if the Brewers ever start winning more than one game per series). The Dodgers have young pitcher Clayton Kershaw pitching for LA on Sunday. He pitched against the Brew Crew in a sunday afternoon game last year....don't remember the exact statistics but I do remember he pitched impressively..he was in line to get the win but the Brewers tied in it the ninth on a Braun homer only for Carlos Villaneuva to give up a game-losing home run in the bottom of the 9th....

Speaking of pitchers pitching well but not getting the wins to show for it, the Brewers have Yovanni Gallardo (who ironically is the one Brewers starter who's pitched well all-season) going for them......this dude has cy-young award potential, should been an all-star and has gotten zero run support in his last two starts (including an electrifying 12-K performance against the Mets)...my call is that the Dodgers will be lookin ahead...the Brewers offense will show up for Gallardo's start (for once) and the Brewers grad some momentum going in to the break.


Sunday Night Game

Cardinals (TBD) vs. Cubs (Zambrano) =2

While ESPN does get well-deserved flak for showing too many Sox-Yankees game.....they do find time to over-do the Cards-Cubs as well (this I can at least tolerate since as an off-shoot they've shown more Brewers games when they play either team)....hard to get excited for this end-of weekend match-up. Zambrano pitched seven strong innings the last time I watched him pitch (last Friday vs. the Brew Crew)....despite his struggles he'll probably show up and pitch another strong game against another division rival...... I really wish these teams could lose to each but since someone has to win...... it will probably be the Cubs win this one (it makes me naseous to type that statement)

Weekend Sports TV Preview:

For this post, I am going to preview the baseball games being featured on national televison. Depending on how I feel about this, this may either be a one-shot deal or become a recurring feature [if this feature lives long enough, the preview will eventually cover football and basketball). Also, this is not meant to be comprehensive as I will only be highlighting the sports that I follow: (For this weekend, that would be just baseball. This means no coverage of Golf, Boxing, Soccer, etc.) Also, I will be ranking the games on a 1-5 basis as follows:

1=nap-time
2=background noise
3=i'll watch a little if I have nothing better to do
4=likely a good but not great game
5=definitely watching

Saturday:

MLB FOX Regional Coverage:

Red Sox (Wakefield) vs. Braves (Vasquez) =3

I like the pitching match-up for this game. You get two veteran pitchers both playing better than expected. Also, you get two contradictory pitching styles. On one side, you have the knuckleballer Wakefield who already has 9 wins going for the Sox. On the other hand, Vasquez who is second in the NL in K's who has pitched better than his 5-6 record indicates. While the Red Sox are the stronger team, the Braves still have a lot to play for as they are only 4 games back in a weak NL East. I think Vasquez will keep this game close but I see the Sox prevailing in this one.

Cubs (Dempster) vs. White Sox (Buerhle) =2

Not looking good for those Cubs. They are self destructing about 4 months earlier than usual. Lots of distractions in the last couple days between Soto testing positive for weed and Milton being Milton.....being on the short-end of the pitching match up does not help either....White Sox in a blowout

Angels (Lackey) vs. D-Backs ( Davis)= 2

If nothing else, at least the D-Backs can't play any worse tomorrow than they are playing tonight. The Angels have a disappointing John Lackey going for them. The D-Backs have Doug Davis, who has pitched better than his 3-8 record indicates. With Davis pitching well and Arizona likely to fall out of contention......this could be one of his last starts as a D-Back. Even though the Angels have a much better team, I see Arizona winning this one.

MLB Network:

Yankees (Burnett) v. Mets (Redding) =1

Yes, I went there, I gave the Yankees-Mets the lowest ranking possible. As a baseball fan who is not from New York, has never even been to New York and never been a fan of either team, I do feel that the New York teams get shoved down baseball fan's throats on a yearly basis......So pretty much you have a ridicuously over-paid mediocre pitcher (Burnett) vs. a journeyman pitcer (Tim Redding)....i'm not high on either team but since Redding pitched well against St. Louis on monday i'll pick the mets to win

Sunday TBS

Red Sox (Penny) v. Braves (Hanson) =4

Why does Sunday's Sox-Braves game get a higher ranking than Saturday's: Two Words: Tommy Hanson. This kid received lots of hype before even being called up and so for he's lived up to it. I haven't seen him pitch personally myself, but in his last 3 starts this kid has been lights out. (3-0 2 ER in 17 innings). Hanson definitely has the potential to be an ace pitcher in the big leagues. The Braves haven't lost any Hanson started games yet and I see that trend continuing on Sunday.

Yankees (Wang) v. Mets (Hernandez)= 1

As much as this game is a snoozer, I would like to use this space to thank Chien-Ming Wang for doing everything in his power to make sure my pre-season prediction of the Yankees finishing 3rd and missing the playoffs comes true......granted he hasn't pitched as bad since coming off the disabled list but he has an era that's higher than geovany soto (yes I went there)- Mets win this one by default.

In other words, not the best sports TV weekend. Other than sunday's Braves-Sox games, this slate is pretty uninspiring...........well at least I got mlb.tv to keep me occupied

Saturday Pick of the Day: Brew Crew over Giants

P.S. I grabbed/double-checked statistics, starting pitchers, miscallenous info from the following sites while writing this post:

mlb.com, baseball-reference.com, usatoday.com