The Mogul Chronicles: Season 1, Chapter 2: 2005 Marlins

So, yesterday I started premiered the Mogul Chronicles by beginning to see if things went differently whether a team would be able to build upon their year of glory. The maiden voyage started with the post-2003 Florida Marlins. The Marlins followed up their title in this universe with an 82-80 record, 1 win short of their real life equivalent......and now your 2005 "bizarro" Florida Marlins

1-Kenny Lofton CF

2-Luis Castillo 2B

3-Eric Hinske 3B

4-Miguel Cabrera LF

5-Hee Seop Choi 1B

6-Ramon Hernandez C

7-Chris Aguila RF

8-Jose Vizcaino SS

Bench:

Ryan Jorgensen

Damian Easley

Josh Willingham

Dan Uggla

Sean Burroughs

Abraham Nunez

Had some extra budget in the off-season and spent some money towards upgrading the line-up. The Bench is still fairly weak but more interesting. Willingham and Uggla will get their first extended looks and we get to see what they are made of on the bizarro Marlins.

Pitchers:

1- Josh Beckett

2-Carl Pavano

3-Dontrelle Willis

4-Brad Penny

5-Ricky Nolasco

Bullpen:

Armando Benitez-Closer

Rafael Soriano-Set Up

Chad Fox-Short Relief

Scott Schoenweis-Short Relief

Michael Tejera-Middle Relief

Josh Johnson-Long Relief

April 18: Josh Beckett out two weeks with lower strained back

Another year, another Josh Beckett injury. Not off to quickest start (1-0 4.00 era,4.72 DICE) but still not an easy loss. Overall, things are looking reasonably good as the Marlins are off to a 6-4 start.

May 18:

22-16 2 GB, Tied For Wild Card

Things looking pretty good. 38 games in the post-season is still a reality.

May 31: Brad Penny out 125 days with severe elbow tendinitis

Not an easy loss to absorb. There were high expectations for Penny but instead his season is pretty much done. Not the best season 2-1 4.79 era....but even that is attributed to bad luck as his DiCE was 3.73. Well, there's always '06. Gives Ricky Nolasco a second chance in the rotation and to bounce back from a rough couple of months.

On a general note, the back end of May didn't go so hot as the Marlins slip to 25-24 falling 4 1/2 back in east and 2 in wild card.

June 4: Kenny Lofton out 25 days with ankle stress fracture

Lofton was signed to solidify the lead off spot and has done just that to tune of 303-4-17 .358/.452. For now, lead off spot is downgraded to Luis Castillo as the Marlins struggle to stay above .500 (27-26)

June 12: Eric Hinske out 172 days with torn ankle ligament

Second time in less than two weeks a free agent acquisition from previous winter is lost to injury. His production of .296/.367/.509 will be missed and will make it easier for opposing teams to pitch around Miguel Cabrera. Sean Burroughs gets a chance to show that he is capable of being more than a throw in to the Pierre-Hernandez trade. 32-28 4 GB NL East, 1 GB Wild Card.

July 4: Miguel Cabrera out 26 Days with Wrist Stress Fracture

Things had been going so good in June only for the worst case scenario to occur on the 4th of July. The Fightin Fish are going to come together and at least tread water without their anchor of Cabrera for four weeks. His .331/.418/.582 production not being in the line-up is a huge blow to this team. Josh Willingham gets a chance to prove himself in Cabrera's place. 45-35 1.5 GB NL East, Leads Wild Card by 1 game.

July 26: A.J. Burnett out 16 days with Strained Knee

Despite the losses to the lineup (Hinske and Cabrera) the Marlins are steam-rolling through July. Not only have the Marlins taken the NL East lead, they have opened up a comfortable 6 game lead. Burnett has had bad luck this year going 6-6 with a 6.30 era (3.95 DiCE)

July 27: Chris Aguila out 16 days with foot stress fracture

Another day, another injury. Aguila has had a rough year, if the Marlins can survive Cabrera's injury i'm sure they should survive this injury.

August 7: Dontrelle Willis out 18 days with sprained finger

Willis has another mediocre year (7-8 4.93 era interrupted by injury). The division lead is up to 7 games and the rotation now has two rookies (Scott Olsen and Jason Vargas) back-ending it.

August 26: Jose Vizcaino out 17 days with sprained knee

The third free agent acquisition to get injured this year. He's been a non factor offensive .222/.279/.269. I'm definitely glad he only got signed to a one year deal. Rookie Josh Wilson gets his first crack at the big leagues due to the injury. Division lead is at 6 games.

September 14: Ricky Nolasco out 17 days with foot stress fracture

An already thin starting rotation loses another starter. A disappointing season (4-10 5.36 era gets even worse). Division lead is down to 4 1/2

October 3: Jose Vizcaino out 106 days with torn knee ligament

And thus his stint with the bizarro Marlins comes to an end. At this point, just finishing out the schedule until the playoffs.

October 6:

The Marlins may be at 7 years and counting for the playoffs since making the playoffs in real life, but in this Mogul Universe it only took a couple of seasons. The bizarro Marlins end the season at 90-72 (7 games better than their real life equivalent).

NLDS vs Cardinals:

Marlins lose in 4 games to the Cards. The post-season may have been a disappointment but this virtual team gained some post-season experience and showed that they are capable of being amongst the elites in the league.

Milestones:

June 18: Luis Castillo- 300th career steal

The closest to a remarkable moment of a fairly ordinary season .283-1-44.

All Stars:

Miguel Cabrera .308/22/98

Carl Pavano 15-9 3.63 era

Rafael Soriano 7-5 2.04 era 4 saves

Cabrera had a strong year and finally got recognized as an All-Star. Pavano had a solid season and picking up Soriano to serve in the set-up role looked to be a very smart move. All 3 were first time All-Stars

Best Hitter: Miguel Cabrera

Surprise: Sean Burroughs .324-3-47

Buzz Kill: Jose Vizcaino .210-1-38

Best Pitcher: Carl Pavano

Surprise: Josh Johnson 8-4 3.14 era

Buzz Kill: Ricky Nolasco 4-10 5.36 era

Burroughs stepped up to fill the void at third after Hinske went down for the year. Vizcaino was the one free agent aquisation that did not work as planned.

Josh Johnson made his debut as a 21-year old and showed a glimpse of the future. Nolasco followed up his strong rookie audition by enduring a pretty nasty sophomore slump. Till next time.......PLAY BALL

The Mogul Chronicles: Season 1, Chapter 1: 2004 Marlins

We start off this experiment adventure to see if the Florida Marlins would have been able to maintain their high level of play after upsetting the Yankees in the 2003 World Series. Why? Because, that's why. The chronically cash-strapped Marlins beating up the team that bought a World Series title. That and the last game is fresh on my mind since the game replay was on MLB Network last night.

Disclaimer: The game settings are set, to slightly tweak from reality and to give a bit of a more level playing field. I set the options to equalize cities to control the difficulty a little bit. Game simulations will be in one month intervals or when a player gets injured for 14 + days (whichever one comes first)

2004 Florida Marlins Real Life Record: 83-79

Organization Rankings:

Farm System (2nd)

Scouting (1oth)

Medical (14th)

Salary (20th)

Starting Lineup:

1-Juan Pierre- CF

2-Luis Castillo- 2B

3-Mike Lowell-3B

4-Miguel Cabrera-LF

5-Jeff Conine-1B

6-Mike Redmond-C

7-Alex Gonzalez-SS

8-Chris Aguila-RF

Bench:

Ramon Castro

Wil Cordero

Abraham Nunez

Damion Easley

Lenny Harris

Pretty light offensively. Pierre and Castillo are players who would be more useful if they ever made it legal to steal first. Conine is a bit over the hill. Mike Redmond is great against Tom Glavine, not so much against everyone else. That is more than you can say about Gonzales and Aguila. If these bizarro-Marlins have any hope of contending, Lowell and Cabrera will need to step up. The Bench leaves a lot to be desired.

Pitching Staff

Starting Rotation:

1-Josh Beckett

2-Brad Penny

3-Carl Pavano

4-Dontrelle Willis

5-A.J. Burnett

Not bad....not bad at all. With the pedestrian offense, the rotation needs to justify the hype.

Bullpen:

Closer- Armando Benitez

Set Up- Chad Fox

Short Relief- Toby Borland

Short Relief- Matt Lindstrom

Middle Relief- Michael Tejera

Long Relief- Darren Oliver

Nothing to write home about. This team only goes as far as the rotation, Cabrera and Lowell takes them........now time for some games.

May 1:

Record 12-10

2nd place 2 GB of Atlanta

1 GB Houston and Milwaukee for Wild Card

Trade:

Juan Pierre to Padres for Ramon Hernandez and Sean Burroughs

It looks like there isn't enough room for two light hitters in my line-up. Juan Pierre moves cross-country. For now, there is a downgrade at center field to Abraham Nunez. Ramon Hernandez is an upgrade at catcher for the Marlins. He's 27, has more pop in his bat than Redmond and gives some protection in the 5-spot behind Cabrera. Sean Burroughs is 23, a young but unproven talent at this point. Since third is already accounted for with Mike Lowell, his role for the Marlins is to strengthen the bench.

May 31:

27-23 3 GB Atlanta, 3rd Place

2 GB Philadelphia for Wild Card

May wasn't great, May wasn't terrible. May was more about treading water than anything else. Ramon Hernandez had a hot start for the Marlins and a big part of the Marlins keeping pace in May (.402/.444/.707). Thus far Burroughs (4 for 17) has been a non-factor.

June 1: Amateur Draft

1-Billy Butler-1B

2-Chuck Dawson-P

3-Pedro Encina-P

4-Stew Porter-P

5-Jaime Alfinec-CF

6-Share Kregar-RF

Pretty uninspiring except for Butler, not expecting too much out of this crop.

June 5: Josh Beckett goes down for two weeks with a dislocated shoulder.

Definitely a set-back for this team. Beckett followed up his epic 2003 post-season by starting 6-2 2.82 era.

29-25

3rd place 2 1/2 behind Atlanta

2 GB Cincinnati Wild Card

June 20: Toby Borland out 26 Days with Ankle Stress Fracture

He may not have a higher profile than Beckett and expectations are lower for him than Beckett, but Borland has had a positive impact on the bullpen thus far. He has been 2-0 with 2.73 era in 27 games (most games he's pitched in a season since 1996)

Record 36-31

3rd place 5 1/2 GB Philadelphia

5 1/2 behind Cincinnati for Wild Card

June has been unkind to this team, they are slowly losing their grip on the season and they need to get hot soon to be in the post-season discussion.

July 20:

Record 47-45

4th place 6 1/2 GB Philadelphia

8 GB Houston for Wild Card

Good News: The Marlins went a month without any injuries

Bad News: The Marlins treaded water losing a game in the NL East (plus a drop from 3rd to 4th). Also, the Wild Card is more or less a pipe dream as they are 8 games out of the Wild Card.

August 8:

Armando Benitez out 22 Days with chipped Knee Cap

A bigger loss on paper than in reality. He is 5-6 3.08 era on the season but this is a bit misleading. He has blown a ghastly 8 saves and when you factor out defense he has a DICE almost twice as high at 5.90. Chad Fox takes over closer duties while Benitez is out, if Fox does well enough, Benitez could become trade bait

55-55 5th place 12 GB Philadelphia

6 1/2 Behind Atlanta for Wild Card

110 games into their title defense, the Marlins find themselves in dead last. In all fairness, the NL East has been pretty tough. On the bright side, they have chipped away at the wild card by getting to within 6 1/2 of the Wild Card. There is still hope, just not much.

August 20: Alex Gonzales out two weeks with sprained kneck

Adequate defender, offensively inept. .254/.293/.352. It's a good thing his contract is off the books after '04. Mike Mordecai takes over temporarily

62-58 4th place 10 1/2 GB

5 GB of Wild Card

September looks to be interesting, let's see how this unravels.

September 3: Jeff Conine out 17 days with Pulled Groin

Conine is up there in years (38) but still a capable player to the tune of .275/.336/.436 with 14 Homers and 67 RBIs. Wil Cordero .229/.282/.346 takes over for now. Cordero needs to improve like two months ago.

67-67 4th place 10 GB

8 1/2 GB of Wild Card

Time keeps on slipping, slipping, slipping, into the future............

September 7: Brad Penny out 45 Days with dislocated hip

Brad Penny's season ends here (barring a miracle run). Even in this bizarro universe win-loss records are useless. Despite a 3.80 era and 3.20 DICE and nearly a 3:1 K/BB rate, he had little run support and a 9-13 record. Time for Penny to recover for the injury, can't wait to see him contribute in '05. In the meantime, 21-year old Ricky Nolasco gets an extended audition in the rotation.

October 6:

Record 82-80 4th place 9 GB Philadelphia

6 1/2 GB San Francisco for Wild Card

Well, the first season has come and gone. So far, this parallel universe is close to reflecting reality (one more win IRL) has the Marlins showing that they at least can compete.

Milestones:

Armando Benitez 200th Save (May 1)

Miguel Cabrera 22-Game Hitting Streak (June 7)

Miguel Cabrera 23-Game Hitting Streak (September 1)

Luckily for Benitez, the don't track blown saves mile stones (he had 10). Cabrera began to show his potential by going on a couple extended hot-streaks. Despite not being an All-Star, Cabrera celebrated his 21st to the tune of .286/.362/.514 and 35 homers.

All-Stars:

Ramon Hernandez: 2nd All-Star .298-15-63 .356/.440

Hernandez came over from San Diego in the Juan Pierre trade. Carried a hot start in Florida to become the Marlins lone All-Star Representative.

Best Hitter: Miguel Cabrera

Surprise: Chris Agulia .292-9-55 .345/.420

Disappointment: Mike Lowell .269-15-80 .336/.424

Best Pitcher: Josh Beckett 13-6 3.07 era

Surprise: Ricky Nolasco 2-2 1.96 era 2 saves

Disappointment: Dontrelle Willis 10-14 4.35 era

Cabrera followed up the strong promise of his rookie year by showing he was the real deal. Agulia seemed nothing more than filler at the bottom of the line-up. I expected nothing out of him but he proved he could play. Lowell wasn't that bad but considering how thin the Marlins offense was, he was expected to step up bigger than he ded.

Beckett lost time to injury but still had a strong year. Nolasco made his debut in '04. He pitched well out of the bullpen and showed that he has a bright future in this league. Like Lowell, Willis wasn't bad per se but considering his strong rookie year, expectations were much higher than reality for the Marlins.

Well, that ends the pilot episode of this series, hopefully this idea works out. If not, at least I gave it a shot

Trying something new: Using Baseball Mogul to revise History--Why am I doing this?

Alright, so we have a couple months till baseball season starts. The Super Bowl is two weeks away. The NBA is the NBA, wake me in April. Normally on Monday's I have been doing the NBA Preview. The last couple days i've reflected on the stuff I have posted on here in the several months since I started this blog. The one thing that's stuck out to me is i've felt a lot better about the baseball-oriented stuff i've done than the NFL/NBA stuff. I feel ok about most of the NFL stuff but i'm not too happy with the basketball stuff I wrote.

In other words, i've got to come up with a way to fill space for a couple months. One thing about me is i'm a HUGE fan of the Baseball Mogul series. For those of you unfamiliar with Baseball Mogul, it is Fantasy Baseball on LSD/Speed/Crack, etc. You get to be GM of any baseball team from 1901 to the present and tweak things as much as possible.

The concept I have for this is to take a team that had their potential for greatness cut short for one reason or another and see if the success could have been maintained if things happened differently.

NFL Championship Game Preview: ABF--Anyone But Favre

Well, here we are. One Afternoon of football away from figuring out who will be playing on football's biggest stage.

Jets vs. Colts

The Jets are definitely the surprise team of the playoffs. I keep picking them to lose. However, they keep winning. The have a coach who is on the complete opposite of the Subway diet (Rex Ryan), they have a rookie quarterback who didn't exactly light the world on fire (Mark Sanchez). They almost didn't even make the playoffs.

The Colts have been the dominant AFC team this year. If they would have gone for perfection and not let Curtis Painter play a half against the Jets, the playoff structure would look much different and the Jets wouldn't even be here. Originally, I thought bad karma would catch up to the Colts here and they would lose the AFC Championship game. That was assuming San Diego won their match-up against the Jets. While Peyton Manning isn't mister big game, his superior skill and extensive playoff experience should be enough to get past a Jets team that hasn't been this far in over a decade.

Colts 31 Jets 10

Saints vs. Vikings

Should be the more interesting of the two games. The Saints are looking to get to their first Super Bowl..........ever. The last time the Saints were in the NFC Championship Game they got clobbered by the Bears. Three years later and they get another chance against another team that I despise (Vikings) and their starting QB who has gone from my favorite player to least favorite player in two short and tumultuous years. While the spot for my favorite NFL team will NEVER be up for grabs, the Saints have a chance to be my second favorite team by bringing the Vikings season to a bitter end.

The last time Brett Favre got this far in the playoffs, the Packers had every chance to win but ultimately failed when a threw an interception RIGHT AT a second string player from the Giants. Point being Brett Favre has been the opposite of clutch for the past 12+ years. That and the Vikings always find ways to not win games, Saints in a rout.

Saints 56 Vikings 10

Sports/Music Crossover: Soundgarden

Well, considering it is Monday, I was going to preview the week's NBA Action. However, I totally spaced out and didn't realize that there was an NBA triple-header today. My Bad.

However, I am going to run a column whose concept has been floating around in my head for the last couple weeks. Ever since the announcement that one of the more prominent 90s Seattle Grunge Bands Soundgarden is planning to get back together after a 12 year hiatus. Time to vaguely connect some of their songs to what's going on in the Sports World.

"Power Trip"--Me being 1-0 in Vegas

Last weekend was my first time in going to Las Vegas. Normally, I don't gamble or bet on sports but under the thinking of When In Vegas combined with the Bucks playing Golden State on Friday, I decided to place a wager on the game.

It didn't look good at first considering the Bucks were giving 3 1/2 points and they were down by as many as 13 at one point. Fortunately for myself and the Bucks this ended up being a smart investment as the defense-optional Warriors folded and the Bucks won by 9, doing more than enough to cover in the process.

"Ugly Truth"--Brett Favre/Vikings

In light of the Vikings rout over Romo and the Cowboys, the Ugly Truth is that the Vikings are one win away from winning the Super Bowl and two wins away from what would be by far the worst sports fan moment in my life. To see Favre and his disloyalty be rewarded with a Super Bowl victory......Drew Brees seriously needs to step up not only for the Saints but for the state of Wisconsin as well.

"Outshined"--UC Davis Basketball

A couple weeks ago, I was randomly surfing the internet and saw that ESPNU was airing a UC Davis basketball game against UCSB the next night. Not only was it a chance to see a basketball game between colleges located in two cities that I had visited the week before, it was a chance to see the college I went to on national TV (it might have been the late game on ESPNU with like 2 other people watching...but I gotta take what I can get)

Thinks didn't look too bad in the first half as the Aggies and Gauchos were tied at halftime despite sloppy play on both ends. Then the second half happened. Then that tie game turned into a 20-point deficit. Fail.

"Rusty Cage"--Chargers

The Chargers had lots of time off between the end of the regular season and their fail against the Jets. They must have been extremely rusty since they somehow found a way to lose to what has got to be one of the worst, most mediocre teams to ever make a conference championship game.

"Half"--Tim Tebow

When will Tim Tebow's Super Bowl Ad run? First Half, Second Half or Halftime? Either way, finding out that Tim Tebow will be in a Super Bowl ad is not something I consider good news. The last time I was watching a live event involving Tim Tebow, things did not end very well for me. I thought we had seen the last of him (for now) but he gets one more high profile spot before he becomes the next Ryan Leaf. I just hope this isn't used as an excuse for announcers to replace a given team's name with Tebow on their scoreboard. I hope they don't randomly show him randomly screaming from the stands and then cutting away to someone's defense coming on to the field. I hope i'm not dumb enough to drink every time the word Tebow is mentioned......again.

"Black Hole Sun"--2010 Royals

Wow, Dayton Moore really wants to be known as the most inept General Manager in baseball. He has taken great strides to get this title with some of the players he is bringing on to his team in 2010. With stars such as Scott Podsednik and Brian Anderson I don't see how the Royals are going to take the baseball world by storm. They even signed 3-time all star Jason Kendall to a two-year contract. I don't know how this could possibly go wrong. Oh wait, yes I can.

"Never Named"--Packers-Cardinals Playoff Game

With Arizona finally having that habit of giving up 45 a game catch up to them, we should reflect on the bizarre, wild playoff game the week before and come up with a nick-name for it. Should it be the "Defense Optional" game, the "51-45" game, the "facemask-no call" game or is there a better name for it?

"Zero Chance"--Jets

Or what it looked like they had. A month back, it looked doubtful they would even make the playoffs. Somehow, they are now a win away from the Super Bowl. They catch a few breaks here, a Colts team resting for the playoffs, a Bengals team that tanked because they didn't want to face the Texans, a Bengals team that no showed in the playoffs, a Chargers team undone by some bad kicking (and the accompanying tactless Wikipedia edits) and now they face the Colts team that rested everyone early that allowed this snowball chain of events to start. But c'mon they have Mark Sanchez at QB, they still got zero chance.

NFL Divisional Preview: Who Knows, maybe i'll correctly pick a game this week

So, last weekend's Wild Card ending was soul-crushing in so many ways. For the second time in three years, the Packers end their season by losing a game in OT......but the show must go on

Cardinals vs. Saints

Hey, the Cardinals are who we thought they were, The Packers defense took the weekend off and handed it to them. The Saints are struggling but anytime you got Drew Brees at QB you have a chance to light up the scoreboard. Plus both of these teams are equally capable of being utterly incompetent on the defensive end. The Packers and Cardinals may have combined to break a bunch of playoff records last weekend. I wouldn't be shocked to see those same records being broken this weekend. Definitely a lot of potential for an Arena Football Style score.

Saints 70 Cardinals 56

Ravens vs. Colts

Not sure which direction I want to take here. I'm still not sold on the Ravens being Super Bowl bound despite their win over New England. The Colts are way more talented but since their starters haven't gotten serious playing time in almost a month, they probably won't bring their A-game. Colts ain't going all the way but they at least live to see another week.

Colts 28 Ravens 14

Cowboys vs. Vikings

It would be totally sweet if these teams could lose to each other. There is absolutely nothing redeemable or likable about either team and their QBs (Romo and Favre). A match-up between two QBs who horribly under perform in the clutch, either way whoever wins is getting ambushed by the Saints. Since Tony Romo has never held the Packers hostage I will begrudgingly pick him to win his second playoff game.

Cowboys 17 Vikings 10

Jets vs. Chargers

So they Jets have a nice little win streak going and somehow found their way to the second round. They were playing a team from Cincinnati which these days is a victory for the opposing team regardless of it's the NFL (see above), College Football (my body is probably still mad at me for this one) or College Hoops (i've seen Cincinnati's basketball team choke in the clutch twice in the last week in a half while working out at the gym).

In addition to being immensely more talented, the Chargers have played so well, they couldn't lose even if they wanted to. Another advantage for San Diego is they play the weakest team that made it to the second round.

Chargers 35 Jets 21

It's NBA Monday's Plus Bonus Rants, Analogies and Random Thoughts of Yesterday's Packers-Cardinals Game

Playoffs?!!!!! First a few note's about yesterday's defense optional game. That has got to be one of the most bizarre, craziest games I have ever watched. I did a blog about the first half of the game but didn't have the motivation to do one for the second half. Considering the Packers looked to be headed towards the end of their season, I decided to focus my entire attention on watching the game instead of splitting it between the TV and the lap-top.

In retrospect, not the best decision, a second-half game blog would have made for some entertainment and make an interesting capsule. There were so many did he just make that play moments in the second half, from the 2 tying TDs, to Rackers missing the field goal at the end, to the brief invincibility of we got the coin toss, we got game to the shocking conclusion of the Cardinals winning the game on face-mask no call.

Now that I got that rant out of the way, time to talk about some hoop.

5- Bulls vs. Celtics Thursday TNT

A rematch of last year's first round series which had its share of those, did that just happen moments. With the way the Bulls are playing this year, the action and drama of this game will be more resemblant of the Packers-Cardinals game from Week 17 instead of the wild card game. Well, unless the Celtics let the Bulls go up by 35, then it might be interesting.

4-Suns vs. Hawks Friday ESPN

Those pesky Phoenix teams. Bizarre, today is the back end of the back-to back series between teams from Wisconsin and teams from Arizona. The Suns-Bucks game is in progress as I am writing this now. The Suns were up 21 after one (the Cardinals were up as much as 21) and the Bucks are making a furious rally (down 3 in the fourth) sorta like the furious rally the Packers made yesterday.

What does this have to about Friday's game? Nothing. Expecting a high-scoring battle between two teams good enough to make the playoffs but nowhere near good enough to win a championship.

3- Jazz vs. Cavs Thursday TNT

The Jazz are in the race for a playoff seed and are slightly off pace. The LeBrons are looking to get over the top. Sadly, I am out of football analogies.....for now.

2-Magic vs. Blazers Friday ESPN

The Magic are looking to get back to the Finals and win their first title after losing to Kobe last year. Blazers fun fact: The Blazers nearly beat the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals one year, they were nearly able to overcome having Mike Dunleavy as a coach, but Dunleavy had a legacy of mediocrity he had to maintain.

1- Jazz vs. Nuggets Sunday ESPN

Gets the slight edge since they play in the same division. The Jazz may be 4th in this 5 team division but are anything but down and out. They may not be in the top-8 right now but only 3 games separates them and the first place Nuggets. Wow, the Western Conference is entertaining right now, only 4 teams with losing records. Hopefully it stays this way at least until baseball season starts.

Game Blog: Packers/Cardinals: First Half

With 3 of the 4 First-Round Playoff Games in the books we are down to the last but not least of the games. Of course I am talking about today's Packers-Cardinals Wild Card tilt. One of 3 re-matches from Week 17. It's pretty safe to say that the Cardinals are actually going to start their first string this week. Also, this being Aaron Rodgers' playoff debut, it should be pretty epic to see how he holds up in this level of play.

1:32 It looks like the Cardinals have a disadvantage on a fire-power level as Boldin was ruled out for today's game

1:33 Lovely, Joe Buck is calling the game. Let the cliches begin

1:35 They showed a commercial about Concussion symptoms a few minutes ago and gave some general advice about precautions so on and so forth.....nothing about not putting someone in a shed/exercise room/whatever actually happened for a few hours..........still doesn't change the fact that Mike Leach lost his job because he angered the son of Craig James.......

1:38 Looks like the Reds signed Cuban mega-prospect Aroldis Chapman to a 5-year deal. This sorta surprises me a bit....I thought he would have gone to New York or Boston. This could make things tighter in the NL Central. Wouldn't be shocked to see the Reds contend in '10. Cardinals are definitely in the drivers seat but if enough things break right for Milwaukee, Chicago or Cincinnati we could have a multi-team race.

1:40 Enough about Aroldis and Mike Leach, it's game time. Packers won the toss, have the ball and time for them to begin their first drive.

1:42 Ouch, that did not start well. Rodgers tries throwing under pressure. Fail! Interception. Arizona ball at Green Bay 40

1:44 Cardinals get 13 yards on a 3rd and 8....not looking good early....and I wrote that before Wells got the Cardinals in the red zone.

1:46 Hearing that Arizona is also the leagues best Red Zone team doesn't make me feel any better about the game situation right now.

1:47 Ball inside the Green Bay 1.....would be a good time for a Goal Line stand.

1:48 Or not.....touchdown Cardinals...4th post-season TD for Hightower....7-0 Cardinals

1:51 Packers offense gets a chance to make things right and tie the game. Jordy tries ( and fails) about five times to get beyond the 20.

1:54 No way that just happened. Driver makes the catch only to get it stripped out by Dansby. I don't think this game could get any worse (outside of Tebow taking the field for the Cardinals)...2 turnovers in 5 minutes.....so that has us pacing at 24 turnovers......Fail

1:56 Warner to Doucet for a touchdown. If the Packers were actually attempting to stop him, it wasn't very obvious.

1:58 On the bright side, the last time the Packers gave up 2 quick touchdowns to start the game, all they did was completely dominate the rest of the game in a rout. Then again, that was against Seattle.

1:59 Dear Packers, Can you please go more than two plays without turning the ball over and not play like you are the Detroit Lions. That would be awesome

2:00 Terrible return + terrible penalty= Ball at own 8. Fail

2:03 Home run ball attempt overthrown by 10+ yards. Fail

2:04 Not the best time to have your first time of being down 14.. Can't even get a punt off without committing a penalty. Sadly, the punt somehow an improvement over the first two possessions.

2:08 A sign that things aren't going good: Someone already posted on my Facebook wall poor poor GB.....,.,.

2:09 I thought things may have turned around after Matthews forced a fumble for a five yard loss...Than the last couple plays happened convincing me that the only good play was an illusion.

2:12 Third and goal for the Cards...the Packers D made a good play....all i'm hoping for at this point is to slow the bleeding

2:13 So we'll only be down 17 instead of 21.....things are looking as bleak as possible

2:15 Even worse, a Packers loss proves Frank Caliendo right....that makes the world horribly wrong (and a lot less funnier)

2:16 The Packers ineptitude is apparently being shared by FOX. They erroneously said the Packers hadn't trailed by 14 this year when they were down 24-3 on 11/1.

2:17 Troy Aikman just said the Packers aren't off to a great start. In other news all days end in Y.

2:19 Glad to see American Idol is around to make sure 2010s music is even more atrocious and unlistenable as 2000s music.

2:21 10 plays and 13 yards that's like almost a yard and a half per play.

2:21 Rodgers connects to Jennings on 3rd and 9 , there may be a pulse after all.

2:22 Joe Buck just said that Rodgers buys time. I'm curious where I can buy said time and how much it costs. I could always use a few extra hours in my day.

2:22 All that momentum, just so we can get back to a 3rd and 11: And threw it about 5 yards to high to a wide open Jones. Fail

2:23 Crosby misses a field goal. I'm shocked. Wait no i'm not. Had the distance but it was wide right. Passes for a good Scott Norwood impersonation but not to get the Packers back in the game.

2:26 Arizona ball at their own 45.......No bueno

2:27 That didn't end well. Pickett strips the ball from Hightower, the refs don't notice said strip happens, the Packers don't challenge the Cardinals go on to gain 27 on the next play. Fail

2:28 Clay Matthews has stepped up all year recovers the fumble that Woodson caused. Now we need Rodgers to make the most of this chance.

2:31 One hour in and for the first time I feel good about how things are unraveling. Grant finds a hole in the D gets it inside the 10. Time to punch it in.

2:32 Rodgers sacked....3rd and long....Rodgers is a beast on 3rd down so TD hopes are still alive.

2:33 Incomplete to Driver but pass interference on the Cards. A new fresh set of downs. Lets make most of second chance.

2:36 Rodgers scores on the QB sneak. TOUCHDOWN PACKERS!!!! 17-7 Cardinals

2:38 Lets see if the Packers D can keep the momentum from the last score going

2:42 Arizona movin the ball again' still in own territory time to right the ship but not looking good.

2:46 Wells runs it into Green Bay territory with little to no resistance from the Packers D

2:47 I like the fact that the Packers are trying to strip the ball on just about every play but when they gain an extra five yards because they are less focused on tackling, doesn't inspire confidence.

2:49 Doucet gets in the end zone........again...as he uses the Packers D as human pinballs and gets the momentum to get in the end zone.

2:51 FOX advertising for some Simpson's 20th anniversary stuff with Coldplay's "Yellow" in the background. On a scale of 1 to 10 the creepiness is about 8.

2:53 Jordy fumbles the kick return....Giordano injures himself saving the Packers from another crippling turnover. So even when a disaster is averted, it comes with a price. Ouch

2:55 According to the broadcast team, the Packers need points. Another pressing need (for me) is for those AT&T commercials featuring Luke Wilson to go away.

2:57 Speaking of commercials seen one time to many (even if it was once)...the GMC engineered to win commercial that was spouting about the Vikings greatness and them coming together as a team.....and James Jones catching passes when he is wide open

2:59 One of the better plays of the day, Rodgers dodges to avoid sack throws it downfield, Finley gets 44 yards. Follow up by getting it inside the 10. So far, strong bounce back from last Arizona TD.

3:00 FOX resolves their technical difficulties just in time for Rodgers to call a time-out.

3:01 Rodgers with a 50.0 passer rating up to now. Not as bad as Jamarcus Russell but not that much better either.

3:05 The first half comes to a merciful end. Packers get it down to a 2 possession game--24-10 Cardinals

The Hawk Of Fame and does this say anything about who else should be in?

Alright so I did this two-post series last July about the Hall of Fame. I examined Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson, looked at their Baseball-Reference page similarity scores and attempted to place into context the chances of other players to get into the Hall of Fame.

I'm going to do the same with Andre Dawson. While I don't agree with this pick (can't get past that .323 OBP and Bert Blyleven is more deserving; it is what it is). As a disclosure, by the time I started following baseball Dawson was in his mid-30s, only had a couple good years left and thus was unable to properly be swayed by the defense that won him several Gold Gloves.

To see his full body of work plus the similarity scores index, check out his Baseball-Reference page.

Similar Players Already In:

Billy Williams

Tony Perez

Al Kaline

Ernie Banks

Dave Winfield

Similar Players Not In:

Dave Parker: The man they call the Cobra and a member of the immortal 1990 Brewers, has yet to seriously be in the Hall of Fame Discussion. He is on his 14th year of eligibility but he has only convinced about 15% of voters that he is Hall worthy. On a logical standpoint, if Dawson is good enough to get 75% and Parker is a similar player, wouldn't he be good enough to at least be in the neighborhood of induction.

To see if this is an accurate assessment, I looked at some of their career numbers.

Dawson .279/.323/.482/.806 119 OPS+

Parker .290/.339/.471/.810 121 OPS+

In all fairness, Parker has the similar issue of a low On Base Percentage. However, it's not as weak as Dawson's. Also, Parker has the slight edge in OPS and OPS+ indicating that in comparison to league and park totals, Parker was the slightly better hitter.

Dawson: 8 All-Stars,

Parker 7 All-Stars

While All-Star game selection is far from a perfect science, it can be used as a quick and dirty estimate to see how often players were amongst the better players in their league.

Dawson: 118 Hall of Fame Monitor

Parker: 121 Hall of Fame Monitor

The Hall of Fame Monitor is one of the metrics shown on the players Baseball-Reference page to measure how likely a player is to make the Hall of Fame. Anything above 100 indicates a likely Hall of Famer. Dawson may not be the perfect choice for the Hall of Fame but if Dawson is good enough to get in, Dave Parker should get his day too. Unfortunately, it looks like his only chance will be many years down the road with the veterans committee.

Harold Baines:

Unlike Dawson and Parker, I have a clearer memory of actually seeing Baines play as his career stretched into the early 2000s.

Career Line: .289/.356/.465/.820 120 OPS+

As a hitter, pretty close to Dawson overall. Baines got on base a lot more often than Dawson. I remember Baines as a useful player but he never gave me the wow factor of that guy is going to the Hall of Fame. The only time he led the league in anything was slugging average in 1984. He was good enough to play in 5 All-Star games which is good but trails both Parker and Dawson. His Hall of Fame monitor falls well below the 100 threshold and only 5-6% of writers see him as Hall Worthy.

Doing the research for this posting, I had the thought of why isn't Dave Parker getting serious HOF consideration, the same isn't happening for Baines. I could see him peaking at 20-25% but considering he played through the 1990s when hitting 20-25 homers and hitting .300 ish was good but nothing special, I don't see Baines getting enshrined.

Luis Gonzales:

Career: .283/.367/.479 118 OPS+

Another good player that I never considered anything special. He last played in '08 so we don't have past HOF voting to go off of. He was a solid-consistent player who went crazy for 57 home runs back in '01 (he gets bonus points for hitting the game winner against the Yankees). Had 5 All-Star Apperances but he has a Hall of Fame monitor of 102 (I find this surprising, I thought it would be as low as or lower than Baines).

I don't necessarily buy into this argument but one of the themes coming up in the Dawson discussion is him getting in on the strength of one really strong season (1987). If Gonzales ever gets in, i'm pretty sure the same logic would be drawn based on his 2001 season. Still, outside of this he only had 4 other seasons with an OPS+ over 125 and spent the rest of his career as a barely above average hitter. I'm pretty sure both his HOF Monitor number and his career numbers would take a serious hit if not for 2001. Not sold on this one.

Dwight Evans:

A long time-teammate of one of last-years inductees (Jim Rice).

Career Line .272/.370/.470 127 OPS+

Based on his hitting, Evans is leaps and bounds above Dawson. He hit 8 percent above league average for his career, his batting average may be 7 points lower but more than makes up for it by having an On-Base-Percentage that I would actually give the time of day.

Looking at his career, he should have gotten more than 3 All-Star appearances. Still, he did match Dawson's 8 Gold Gloves.

While he didn't peak as high as his HOF teammate Jim Rice, didn't win an MVP or lead the league in as many hitting categories, Evans overall hitting stacks up competitively with Rice.

Rice: .298/.352/.502 128 OPS+

Rice slugged for a higher percentage, had a solid OBP and when you factor in overall, his OPS+ was a whopping one point higher than Evans.

Looking at all this, it is beyond me why Evans only lasted on the ballot 3 years before dropping below 5 percent. The Baseball-Reference Hall of Fame Monitor lists him at only 68. However, he does seem to have a body of work competitive with recent inductees such as Jim Rice and Andre Dawson and if those two are in, Evans should probably be in as well.

Gary Sheffield:

Time to set aside my personal feelings on this one. If this were the Hall of Ethics, the Hall of not purposely tanking/making errors so you can get the Brewers to trade you for 40 cents on the dollar, or the Hall of everyone except my least favorite player of all-time gets in, Sheffield would be rejected from all three halls.

Now that I got the irrationality out of my system, its time to look at what he has done so far.

.292/.393/.514 140 OPS+

Out of all the players examined, Sheffield by far has the best body of work (on the field). Since he is still active, he won't be eligible for voting for awhile. When he hasn't been busy being a headache and getting traded every few years despite his immense talent, he has made it to 9 All-Star games (more than anyone else examined), hit 500+ home runs and been in the Top 5 for MVP voting three times.

On numbers alone, Sheffield is an obvious first-ballot. However, his induction hinges on how the writers vote for the players with steroid accusations. If McGwire's case is any indication, it could be a bit tougher for players like Sheffield with accusations flying around but i'm assuming the fabricate outrage over steroid use will calm down enough between now and Sheffield's window of eligibility that he will get into the Hall of Fame. This is the closest I will ever come to saying anything positive about Sheffield.

To Recap:

Deserves To Be In But Unlikely To Get In: Parker, Evans

Likely To Get In: Sheffield

Only Getting Into The Hall Of Fame If They Pay Cover Charge: Baines, Gonzales

If you don't learn anything else from It's Always Sunny, You Gotta Let the wild card do his thing: Wild Card Playoff Preview

Well the regular season is over. 17 weeks of action and we are down to 12 teams. 4 of them have the weekend off. The other 8 play for their playoff lives this weekend.

Saturday: Jets vs. Bengals

I would definitely say the Jets are the worst of the playoff bunch. They have been in dysfunctional since a 3-0 start, they have a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez who had a less than stellar season. It looked like they were on the verge of giving up sometime in November. But with last sunday's game the deciding factor between whether the Bengals would face the Texans or Jets, the Bengals got "dominated" and are rewarded with facing an inferior team.

The Bengals, they are the surprise team of the season. Nothing was expected of them, they went through way more adversity than any other team in the league and they have come out the stronger team for it. I'm indifferent towards both teams but i'll probably be pulling for the Bengals in this one. I'd like to see what Carson Palmer can do in a playoff game. His last opportunity was cut to one play due to a gruesome injury. For a couple years it didn't look like he'd get a second chance. The motivation between this second chance and an inferior opponent will lead to a Bengals rout.

Bengals 31 Jets 10

Eagles vs. Cowboys

Personally don't care for either of these teams. The Eagles have played as well as one could for the last decade without actually winning a Super Bowl. Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid have taken a lot of heat for this but outside of the T.O. fiasco this team has been a year-in, year-out playoff contender.

The Cowboys played better down the stretch than they have in the last few years. While McNabb has usually led the Eagles to a playoff win or two before bowing out, he's practically Joe Montana compared to Tony Romo. Unless Romo actually goes through a playoff game without laying an egg and/or losing, I can't in good conscience pick the Cowboys to win a playoff game.

Eagles 28 Cowboys 24

Sunday

Ravens vs. Patriots

Not to high on either team's Super Bowl hopes. The Ravens are more talented than their 9-7 record (but not that much more talented). I thought the Ravens were going to break out with Flacco having another year of experience under his wing.

The Patriots return to the post-season after a brief absence. They had a good season but seem to be missing that killer instinct that they had during their Super Bowl run plus losing Wes Welker to injury doesn't help things. However, i'm applying the reverse Tony Romo principle for this game. Hard to pick against Brady in a playoff game.

Patriots 21 Ravens 10

Packers vs. Cardinals

Obviously, this is the game out of the four that I am anticipating the most. This is going to be Aaron Rodgers' debut on the big stage. He's proven to be more than worthy in his two years as a starting QB and I can't wait to see him light up the Cardinals D.

The Cardinals are coming off a crushing Super Bowl loss to the Steelers last year. The Cardinals (well their second string) are coming off a blow out loss to the Packers.

Obviously, the degree of difficulty this Sunday is going to be a lot higher. With Rodgers on one side and Warner on the other, look for lots of yards and points to be accumulated on both sides. This will come down to who can make A stop (not necessarily a lot) of stops on defense and considering the Packers have Charles Woodson and the Cardinals don't that is being reflected in my pick.

Packers 45 Cardinals 35

NBA For The First Week Of The Decade

Well, the Holiday Season has officially come to an end. Haven't followed College Basketball very much this season but saw parts of a couple games at the gym that caught my interest. The first one was the Pitt-Cincy game. In light of friday's event, it's not a shock that Cincinnati lost (at least it was close it wasn't too much of a fale....with the exception of some horrible shot selection at the buzzer....and thankfully Tim Tebow the warrior was nowhere to be found). The other game they showed parts of was some bonus coverage from EspnU.....UNC got upset by College of Charleston....now if we can get some of those upsets in March as well.

Well enough of my College Basketball soapbox, time to focus attention towards the NBA games getting national love this week.

4- Lakers vs. Clippers Wednesday ESPN

Battle of LA. Not as exciting as it sounds. If it's baseball (Dodgers vs. Angels) that would be a good game, college football (USC vs. UCLA) it depends on the year (and usually how much USC is violating NCAA Sanctions) NFL (um nevermind) NBA ( you get an unlikable great team with an unlikable star in Kobe and a team that's played second fiddle....never has and never will be great......pass)

3- Celtics vs. Hawks Friday ESPN

A case could be made for any of the games (except the "battle of LA"), the Celtics are doing their part by having the second seed and putting things in a comfortable cruise control until the playoffs. The Hawks while still playing well, have faded from their quick start and look to be settling into a 4-seed and a probable second round exit. Wake me in May......next

2-Cavs vs. Blazers Sunday ESPN

For how much talk there has been about the Cavs struggling this year and the offense slowing down, you would think they would have a record worse than 27-9 and not be the #1 seed. It would be scary to see how good they are at their peak. The Blazers may not be the most interesting team, their players that haven't been lost for the season may not be household names but they somehow have the #3 seed in the east. Not sure how long they can hold on to their seed and it is scary how good they would be at full health.

1-Cavs vs. Nuggets Friday ESPN

Gets the nod because of the LeBron vs. Carmelo match-up. While the Nuggets have the lowest conference seed in these games (sans the Clippers) the individual match-up here is tough to beat.

The Tebow Game, The Kings Games and New Years

I definitely gotta say that the past weekend I have had is one of THE MOST FUN WEEKENDS i've had in forever. Normally, I wouldn't blog about my own personal antics but with a couple of the days events cross-breeding with sports I just can't help it.

After a night in San Luis Obispo and spending New Year's Eve in Santa Barbara and a quick pit stop at home to pick up a few things, it was time to roll up to The City. We headed up there with Flip and Griff and headed towards my buddy J.J's place up in Daly City (apparently this place was named after someone named John Daly. After going to Wikipedia, I was highly disappointed that it was named after someone else and not the infamous golfer). Since this was New Year's Day, much of the conversation on the way up revolved around the college football bowl games and our intent on watching the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl once we got up to the City.

We get to The City at around 3 and decide to find a bar to watch the rest of the Rose Bowl at. Despite me being completely sure that Ohio State would find a way to lose, they somehow found a way to beat Oregon and thus depriving me of one of my favorite New Year's traditions. Once this game wound down we were discussing what to do next and somehow the conversation turned to the media's obsession with Tim Tebow. Somehow the idea came up to go back to J.J's place and play a Tim Tebow related drinking game. At this point, we went to the liquor store across the street got a bottle of Jameson and a bottle of Crown Royal and headed back to J.J's place.

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DISCLAIMER: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME

So we get back to J.J's place and we decide that the rules of the game are every time Tebow is mentioned we take a drink. With no beer in the apartment and only hard liquor this translated into a shot every time Tebow's name is mentioned. Yes, this was every bit as dangerous and irresponsible as it sounds. We started this game with 9 minutes left in the second quarter, the first bottle of Jameson was gone with 6 minutes left in the second quarter. While that may be only 15 minutes in real time this translated into one of the longest quarters of football ever.

So this takes us to about 6:30. Honestly, I don't remember much of the second half. I remember the shots of Tebow on the headset with the defense on the field (so does he double as the defensive coordinator?) and at one point it appeared the score at the top they replaced Florida with Tebow. Even though we watched the whole game I didn't even know that that Cincinnati scored a couple of garbage time touchdowns to make it 51 to 24.

So, the next morning we wake up. All of are horribly hungover and watch some more football while we decide when exactly to head up to Davis/Sacramento. We watched parts of The International Bowl (a.k.a Missed Tackle Bowl), the Cotton Bowl and some other bowl game that was laden with 3 and outs and turnovers (the only truly good play out of this bumper crop was that one-handed catch made by the UConn wide receiver.

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So, after surviving the Tebow game it was time to head east on I-80 it was time to spend a few hours at Arco Arena. First, I stopped in Davis for a couple hours, met up with my buddy Nate and eventually headed to Arco. I was definitely pumped up to see a Kings game. Even though i'm not a Kings fan, they have been one of the more interesting teams to follow this year. It looks like they are on the way back up after their travesty of a season last year. Getting Tyreke Evans was huge for them.

Anyways we get to our seats, and begin to watch the game and like the other Kings games i've attended live they lost. The first quarter was fairly compelling with the Kings having a slight edge after the first quarter. The second quarter was the ultimate undoing for the Kings. The second quarter was pretty much a lay-up clinic for the Mavericks who extended their lead to as much as 13 before the Kings eventually cut the lead down to 7 by halftime.

The second half saw the Kings have the opposite problem. They played better on the defensive end up seemed to struggle to make shots every time they got within 7 or 8 points. If nothing else, the final score made it look respectable (99-91), a huge improvement over being blown out by the Knicks. While the Kings are unlikely to get back into the playoffs this year, it is at least encouraging to note that they at least aren't a punching bag.

And as quick as it started, my weekend, new years/new decade and it's cross pollination with sports was finished. Happy new years everyone!!