The Thursday 2-Fifths

Didn't have enough time to write a full F5ive, here's a preview for the two games running on MLB Network today

1- Nationals vs. Reds
MLB Network
Hernandez vs. Volquez Interest Level:4

So, apparently the Nationals have pitchers not named Strasburg pitching for them. When Livian Hernandez got off to that scorching hot start, it was clear that it was built up with smoke, mirrors, good luck and a low BABIP. In other words, Livan Hernandez odds of that great start lasting the season had as good of a chance of surviving as that house made of straw in the 3 little pigs had of surviving the big bad wolf. As of today, his ERA stands at 3.27 and appears to be well on its way to its rightful place in the mid to upper 4 range.

The Reds counter with Edison Volquez (who despite failing a drug-test doesn't actually serve his 50-game suspension because he happened to be injured at the time....I don't see how this could be a controversy if the Reds win the division, but thats besides the point). who pitched well in his first start of 2010 and looks to give their pitching staff a much needed jolt in the arm as they battle the Cardinals for the NL Central playoff spot.

2- Royals vs. Yankees MLB Network Chen vs. Sabathia

The Royals and Nationals on National TV on the same day! This can be placed on the list of things that would never hapen on FOX or ESPN.

Anyways, the Royals are playing their normal role of also-ran, sitting at 12 games out of first (I thought it would look a lot worse for them at this point). The Royals bring Bruce Chen to the hill. Surprisingly, Chen hasn't pitched that bad this year (5-3 4.06 era 104 ERA+) I didn't say it was great but it's not bad either........it's a bit mind boggling that the dude has pitched for 10 teams in his career (including 4/5 of the NL East by the time he was 25)....considering he's left handed and only 33, he could very easily break the all-time record for teams pitched for before all is said and done.

None of this really matters as they are facing the Yankees and CC Sabathia. The Yankees are contending for a division title/world series title (as always) and a pre-requisite of that is taking care of business against also-ran teams such as the Royals.

The Tuesday F5ive

A few things to pay attention to for Tuesday:

1-Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Network

Hunter vs. Galarraga

Interest Level: 6

Pretty decent Tuesday Night match-up with some playoff implications. The Rangers take the AL-high 4.5 game lead and 81% playoff chances and take on the Tigers, who despite being tied for the Twins at a game and a half back have minimal playoff chance (18%) in comparison to the Twins (36%).

The Rangers are taking Tommy Hunter to the hill who has very quietly who has come out of nowhere to pitch very well (6-0 2.33 era) after coming up from Oklahoma City. If he keeps this up......a Rangers duo of Cliff Lee and Tommy Hunter would make opposing teams dread facing Rangers pitching for the first time since......ever. The Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga who has had a bizarre season to say the least. It's not every year where someone gets sent to the minors twice and pitch a 28-out "perfect" game.

2- Minor League Matinee

Buffalo vs. Rochester MLB Network

According to the MLB Network website, they are extending out to a Triple A matinee and showing a game between the Buffalo Bisons-Mets Affiliate (50-45) and the Rochester Red Wings (35-62). Don't know too much about these Triple-A teams but for some reason a random nationally televised minor league baseball game piqued my interest.

Some ex-MLB players on to this team who may or may not see action include Ramon Ortiz, Oliver Perez (on a rehab assignment stemming from being placed on the DL with an inflated ERA), Brian Bruney & Mike Jacobs.

The Rochester team (Twins) affiliate sits 21 games out in the International League's Northern Division. Ex-major leaguers clinging on for a last chance at the show include Mike Maroth, D'Angelo Jimenez and Jacque Jones. According to their official website, Curt Schilling was their opening day starter in 1989.

3- Conflict Of Interest Game Of The Day:

Cardinals vs. Phillies

Chris Carpenter, how I love/hate the strong season he's having. The good part is he's been an anchor in my fantasy team rotation as he is coming off a very strong performance against the Dodgers. I hate it because he's a major reason why the Cardinals are in first and have a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs and a minor reason why the Brewers playoff odds sit at .5 percent.

4- Pitchers Duel Of The Day:

Dodgers vs. Giants

Lincecum vs. Kershaw

The last time I mentioned Kershaw and pitchers duel in the same sentence (Thursday against Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals) Kershaw didn't hold up his end of the bargain. Maybe the situation of going against the rival Giants and the fact that the Dodgers need a major boost will motivate Kershaw to step up in this start.

5- Random Ex-Big Leaguer Who Signed A Minor League Contract:

Wily Mo Pena

The Padres signed Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal today. One of the moves that seems out of left-field and a bit desperate but so crazy, that it could work. At the very least, he appears to have the raw talent (which didn't completely materialize) as he was a top-100 prospect 3 times (2000, 2002 & 2003). He's even displayed some power in his bat at a big league level as he did hit 26 homers at the age of 22.

However, things seemed to go downhill from there as Pena's career had slipped from there getting to the point where he got DFA'd by the Zombie Expos in March 2009.

Considering his numbers appeared to have peaked and much hasn't been heard about him in the last few years, it was surprising to see that he's still only 28. While his free-swinging tendencies likely makes his career ceiling somewhere around Jeff Francoeur, he does have the capability to impact the offense as he does have plenty of power in his bat (something that is lacking from most Padres hitters not named Adrian Gonzales). This signing of an apparently washed out player may not look big today but he could have a surprise impact on the NL West, having a similar effect that Pat Burrell has had on the Giants. It might sound crazy but not as crazy as a first-place team starting Scott Hairston, Tony Gwynn Jr. and Will Venable in their outfield as unique for its lack of production as it is for the fact that all 3 are the sons of ex-MLB players....and that is why Wily Mo Pena is a deep-sleeper candidate for comeback player of the year.

The Monday F5ive

The five things on my mind:

1-Phillies vs. Cardinals ESPN

Kendrick vs. Hawksworth

Interest Level: 8

A battle between two pitchers on my Razzball team....obviously, I would prefer the Phillies to win this one but the more runs these two starting pitchers give up, the better

2- Madison Bumgarner's start against the Dodgers

Bumgarner has taken the minors to school and gives the Giants another talented arm in the Giants rotation. He's pitched well in 4 starts in the bigs this year (2-2 2.57 era). Bumgarner faces a giant test tomorrow to see how reliable he will be down the stretch as he gets his first taste of the bitter Giants-Dodgers rivalry.

3-Roy Oswalt's Injury

Oswalt ended up leaving Sunday's start with an injury. This makes things a bit complicated. They haven't mentioned how much time Oswalt will be out but it seems to go without saying that this will complicate the inevitable trade to a contender and diminsh the returns the Astros would get for Oswalt.

Another in-direct subplot is how (and if) this injury affects his place in Astros history. If this injury causes Oswalt to miss a start, it may take away his chance of breaking Joe Niekro's all-time Astros record for wins (though the anemic Astros offense could just as easily take the blame if this were to happen....6-10 despite a 134 ERA+).

Or this could indirectly give him more than a few more starts in an Astors uniform. This injury could scare potential suitors away and/or reduce what they are willing to give in return....combined with him missing a limited amount of time...it could divert contenders looking for starting pitching in another direction, Oswalt gets time to get the franchise win record and the Astros hold off until the off-season and get a better return for Oswalt.

4- Sports/Movie Cross-Over Part 1: Major League

A sad day in the sports/entertainment industry as James Gammon, who played manager Lou Brown in the Major League franchise died at the age of 70.

The movie, about an Indians team assembled with a bunch of cast-offs designed to make the Indians so bad to plunge attendance numbers so their owner could move them to Florida.

In real life, the 2010 Indians being managed by Manny Acta have zero-to little hope of winning this year (like their movie counterparts had in spring). While the scrappy underdogs pull it off in the movie, edging the Yankees for the AL East title (this scenario has to change in the inevitable remake due to re-alignment), real life does not act like the movies and as good as Carlos Santana is it is unlikely they would bypass 4 teams and cash in on a .2% chance of making the playoffs (even if Kerry Wood gets off the DL, returns to his dominant form circa 1998 and becomes a modern day Ricky Vaughn). But hey, if the Indians do pull it off, they could re-make Major League (even if they don't it will probably be re-made as 80s movies are being re-made left and right as we've apparently run out of ideas).

5-Sports/Movie Cross-Over Part II: Tropic Thunder

Disclaimer: This one is not baseball related but is something I couldn't resist mentioning since seeing Tropic Thunder

Yesterday, I ended up renting and watching the film Tropic Thunder. The film is about three mega-stars (Ben Stiller as Action Star, Jack Black in the Eddie Murphy esque-role of playing several unfunny roles in the same film and Robert Downey Jr. as the critic-favorite) who unite to make a mega-budget film with a rookie director only for the director to be unable to manage their egos and having a project where nothing can go wrong have everything go wrong.

During the summer, three mega-stars (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade & Chris Bosh....alongside their hand-picked supporting cast...) who have previously played for separate teams (Cleveland, Miami & Toronto) who unite in Miami for the mega-uber project of the ages........together with a fairly young Eric Spoelstra (while he has a couple years experience....seriously he doesn't look like hes over 25).

One thing thats popped into my mind as this LeBronadrama has been going on is that anything less than 5 titles is going to be a disaster. However, with the unprecedented amount of stars (and egos) involved......somebody is not going to be happy...........all 3 of these are going to want to be the man and how their egos are not going to take over, I don't know........this is a very delicate balance that could very easily implode.....and this is BEFORE we take into account Bosh's lack of playoff experience and LeBron's tendency to save his best for the meaningless regular season games, the real life Miami Heat could easily become just as dysfunctional as the fictional actors in Tropic Thunder and this could make LeBron and Bosh both title-less even after their contracts expire.

The Weekend F5ive

A look at the games getting some TV attention this weekend

1-Dodgers vs. Cardinals Saturday FOX

Kuroda vs. Wainwright

Interest Level: 5

The Dodgers and Cardinals continue with their series this weekend. My projection of a duel between Kershaw and Carpenter turned out to be horribly wrong. Carpenter did his part while Kershaw had a rough day in the office.

We're probably looking at another one-sided affair in favor of the Cardinals on Saturday as Wainwright has thus far one-upped his career year in 2009 and it appears very little is going to get in his way in 2010.

2- Rays vs. Yankees Saturday FOX

Niemann vs. Burnett

Interest Level: 7

This game gets extra interest points for fantasy purposes. On one of my teams, the starting pitching has been solid most of the year and Jeff Niemann has been one of the main reasons why...replacing Javier Vasquez with him has been one of the best decisions i've made all year.

While his strong performance has been aided by really good luck (.242 opposing BABIP). Still, he deserves credit for one of the more under-rated pitching performances of the 1st half as he's in 4th in Wins Above Replacement, 5th in WHIP, 5th in ERA+ so on and so forth....should be a likely win for the Rays in this one.

3- Rangers vs. Red Sox Saturday MLB Network

Lee vs. Lackey

Interest Level: 6

A couple things to pay attention to here. First, will the Red Sox be able to make up ground on whoever loses the Rays-Yankees game/series.

Second, OMG....the Rangers have Cliff Lee.....the Rangers traded for Cliff Lee (so who hasn't traded for Cliff Lee in the past year). In all seriousness, does Cliff Lee bounce back against an inexplicably bad start against Baltimore and take his rightful place in the role of that guy that swings a division race and leads his team to the World Series......he was that guy for the Phils last year....and with the Rangers having an 80% chance of making the playoffs....it's likely he's going to have the same role in Texas.

4- Rays vs. Yankees Sunday MLB Network

Price vs. Pettite

Interest Level: 3

While the pitching match-up is better than the rest of the series....this is where the over-exposure of this entire series being on national television and the Third/West coast bias of myself and this blog kicks in. The outcome will tweak the AL East/Wild Card standings but since both teams have at least a 75% chance of making the playoffs.....there will be more meaningful games between these two as we get deeper into the summer.

5-Phillies vs. Cubs Sunday ESPN

Halladay vs. Gorzelanny

Interest Level: 4

The only reason the interest level is this high is because Halladay is pitching. So, yeah this is pretty much a match-up of two high profile teams that have underachieved to various degrees. The Phillies have done so to a more moderate degree (that they have a 18% chance) of over-coming while the Cubs are the front-runners for the underachieving team of the year award. But the game has fantasy implications as I have Halladay which is about the only reason I personally have for paying attention.

The FridayF5ive

It's Friday, the weekend is upon us. Here are 5 things to pay attention to:

1- The only national broadcast game is

Rays vs. Yankees--MLB Network
Shields vs. Sabathia
Interest Level: 6

A match-up with playoff implications but not really. I say playoff implications as the outcome of this series will have at least a short-term impact on the AL East lead and gives the winner a shot to distance themselves from the Red Sox. I say not necessarily playoff implications because if the playoffs were to start today both teams would be in anyways.

Looking at the teams it should be a close match-up. However, looking at the pitching match-up its more likely than not the Yankees should take this. CC Sabathia is coming off a strong performance against the M's (which led my fantasy team to a loss) and another All-Star performance/strong season, etc. The Rays counter with James Shields. While Shields is an average pitcher with a strong K/BB ratio, compared to Sabathia, he doesn't really give the Rays a good chance in this game.

2-Will the Zombie Expos give Strasburg some run support?

With rookie phenom (and the main reason to pay attention) to the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg taking the hill against the Marlins, now is the good time to ask the question. Strasburg has proven himself to be big-league in just about every conceivable way. However, having a weak hitting team behind him has caused him to have a 3-2 win loss record (he gave up 2 ER in 13 innings in those two starts).

Tomorrow, Strasburg takes the hill against the other NL East team that called up an uber-prospect in June but has no hopes in contending (Marlins). It's a given that Strasburg will bring it but can their offense do enough against Ricky Nolasco to give him a win (or at least not tag him with a loss) remains to be seen.

3-How long will Dan Haren be stuck in Arizona?

With Haren starting tomorrow against the first place Padres, it seems like the appropriate time to ask the question. With the D-Backs in flux and in no hopes of contending soon, it would seem to make sense that contending teams would be willing to part ways with some prospects in exchange for pitching help down the stretch. While he hasn't pitched as well this year as he has in years past, Haren is definitely talented enough to be a talent upgrade for a contending pitching staff. Could this be the last time Haren puts on a D-Backs uniform or will his talents continue to be spent on a team that is a non-impact on the playoff chase?

4- Two bad teams, two different paths

Something that will be on display starting tomorrow as the Astros and Pirates battle each other to stay out of last place. This series will move towards answering the debate of the most effective way to 100-losses......A) Be saddled by large contracts for hitters in their 30s that are simultaneously regressing skillwise or B) Go on an 18-year rebuilding plan....my vote B)...The Astros may be terrible but they did go to the World Series 5 years ago and this is only their second straight losing season

5- The next Reds-Cubs series could be interesting to say the least

And probably not because of the quality of the match-up. While the Reds are in 1st, the Cubs are in the NL Central purgatory battling the Brewers for 3rd place. While it is a player on a rival team, it is good to see a player take their divisional rivalries seriously. The highlight of the article:

Asked why he has such disdain for the Cubs, Votto said: "We are Cincinnati Reds. We're taught to hate everything in the Central Division. That's just how it is."

While Joey Votto plays for a divisional rival for the Brewers and as a result hates the team I follow because of it, i've gotta say the honesty is refreshing. In an age where everything is uber-pc and outside factors have made it more about money than loyalty (Scott Boras.....cough......cough). It's good to see a star player back up the colors of his team. In a way, this could be a rallying cry and a turning point for the Reds (as a Brewers fan I hope i'm wrong about this) and it the snub of Byrd (and the Cubs as a whole) will add a bit of tension in the air the next time these teams match-up. Either way, this story is more interesting than reading another article about how under-rated he is (even though this is an accurate statement).........seriously, this dude could win the MVP if he keeps doing what he's doing and the Reds hold on.

Back From The Break, Five Things To Watch For

So the All-Star Break is coming to an end (after three long days) and i've finally mustered up the motivation to do some writing.

Thursday happens to be a light day (a soft launch if you will).....the only game being nationally televised is:

1-Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Network
Kershaw vs. Carpenter
Interest Level: 8

This is a pretty solid match-up to start off the second half and the beginning of things to come. First of all, there is the factor of this being a rematch of last years NLDS. Also, both teams come into this game with legitimate playoff hopes as the Dodgers are 2 games behind the Padres for the west and tied for the Rockies in the Wild Card race. The Cardinals are in decent contending position as well as they sit only 1 game back of the Reds in the Central.

Also, the pitching match-up is nothing to scoff at either. The Dodgers are starting Clayton Kershaw who in my opinion, is one of the under-rated young pitchers in the game. He barely turned 22 before the season started, he's capable of dominating at times, piling up high strikeout numbers (he leads the NL in SO/9) and has improved on his one weakness control (going from 4.8 BB/9 to 4 BB/9 from last year to this). In other words, once Kershaw gets his walk totals a little lower, he is bound to have his name in the discussion of young ace pitchers that has been dominated by Strasburg (despite the disadvantage of playing on the West Coast).

The Cardinals are countering with Chris Carpenter. While Carpenter obviously isn't as young as Kershaw, the last couple of years have proven he can still pitch. He nearly won the Cy Young last year and has followed it up with a strong 2010. This game also includes a conflict of interest element. Obviously, a Dodgers win over the Cardinals would help the Brewers increase their 1% chance of making the playoffs (albeit slightly) while a rough outing by Carpenter would hurt my fantasy team that is in the midst of a season high 3-game losing streak. Either way, expect this to be a close, low-scoring game


Other things that pique my interest:

2- How will the Brewers start the second half?

While the Brewers may have embarrassed themselves against the Giants, they still managed to sweep the Pirates last weekend giving them a 3 game winning streak and get themselves within single figures in the Games Back column. The Brewers have Dave Bush taking the hill. This may not guarantee victory (as indicated by a 4-6 record) but it at least means that more likely than not, the Brewers will at least have a chance to extend their winning streak to 4 as he held the opposing team to 3 ER or less in 14 of his 17 first-half starts.

3- How will the Gonzales/Escobar trade affect the Braves?

We will begin to find out starting with their game against the Brewers. Personally, i'm not sold on it being as positive of an impact as the Braves are hoping. Sure, Gonzales went on a tear in the first half and hit a bunch of homers. Personally, it's more he had an extended hot streak than Gonzales turning a corner (at 33 and with a .296 OBP). The Blue Jays were smart enough to sell high on Gonzales while the Blue Jays were able buy-low to pick up a younger, talented but struggling Yunel Escobar (who's younger (27) has a better OBP than Gonzales (.334...so he's getting on base more often in his worst year than Gonzales has in his best year) and he also happened to be 10th the NL in Wins Above Replacement last year while Gonzales has never had an OPS+ over 100 in a full season.

My take, i'm not convinced the Braves upgraded themselves going from Gonzales to Escobar and there is a fair possibility that they may regret this trade a few years down the line.

4- How long can R.A. Dickey keep this up?

If you would have told me on opening day that R.A. Dickey would have been the Mets best pitcher in the first half and asked me how many games out of first they would be, I would have said 20. However, R.A. Dickey has been a major factor in the Mets having a legit shot at the playoffs. In terms of the NL East race, a major factor for the Mets being a player will hinge on whether Dickey reverts to the journeyman pitcher he was through his age-34 year or if he's made a permanent breakthrough with the knuckle ball that will keep him effective into his 40s.
We'll begin to find out tomorrow as he goes up against Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants.

5- Is this the 3rd straight year the AL Central gets decided in a one-game playoff?

The reason I ask this question is the Twins and White Sox get started in a crucial 4-game series coming up this weekend. In 08 it was White Sox over Twins, last year it was Twins over Tigers. Leads me to think about a couple of weird scenarios. Scenario #1 being that neither team wins it as it would be the Tigers turn to win the AL Central via a one-game playoff. Scenario #2 being an unprecedented 3-way tie that leads to a 3 team round-robin playoff. Considering that Coolstandings.com gives all 3 teams at least a 25% chance but none of them have a 50% chance to make the playoffs.

My prediction, with pitcher Jake Peavy out for the year, the White Sox eventually take the AL Central via the Ewing Theory.