Claudio Vargas Trade + other random ramblings

Well, it's July 31....the trading deadline (for non-waiver clearing trades).....the Brewers ended up aquiring Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers for Vinnie Rottino

In regards to this trade my feelings on it (good and bad) balance out. On the positive side....he is a versitale pitcher who can help an effective but overworked bullpen......he has experience as a starting pitcher (something this team desperately needs) and the Brewers didn't give up too much to get him.......

On the flip side.....this dude is not going to single-handedly turn around this team's season....he's definitely not C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay (or even a Jarrod Washburn/Doug Davis type).....he did pitch for the Brew Crew back in 2007. He did go 11-6 but that had more to do with good run support as he had a 5.09 ERA and 88 ERA+.....pretty much, I wasn't sad to see him go when he got cut....but in light of this team's pitcher shortcomings I can definitely live with this trade.............

Speaking of the Crew.....their game is in the 4rd inning right now (7-1 Brewers!!!!)......they're playing in San Diego.....it feels weird having to wait till 7 for their games to begin but with this series and next weeks series against the Dodgers it will be something I have to get used to for the next six days or so........

Weekend Preview: The Post-Trade Deadline Addition

Another weekend is upon us which means another preview of this weekend's televised Baseball action.....games are ranked 1-5 based on the compelling-ness of the match-up


Saturday FOX Afternoon (Regional)

Yankees (Burnett) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2

Yankees......zzzzzz......wake me in the playoffs. White Sox.....lucky for them they are playing in a weak AL Central and sit only 3 games out despite struggling most of the season.

Expect Good Games Out of: Paul Konerko, Jorge Posada
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Jeter

Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Braves (Lowe) = 3

Dodgers are crusing through the NL West. Braves have been up and down this year and have ex-Dodger Derek Lowe pitching for them.

Expect Good Game Out of: Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Juan Pierre

Royals (TBD) vs. Rays (Niemann) =1

Decent Rays team fighting for wild-card against a Royals team that has taken up permanent residency as irrelevents.....to think it was only may when the Royals were in first and the Onion wrote an article about the Royals not being able to find themselves in the standings


Expect Good Game out of: Jeff Niemann
Don't Expect Good Game out of: The Royals

Saturday night MLB Game

Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) =4

Sure these teams aren't great but this game does carry pennant race implications. The Cards are tied for the Cubs for first while the Astros are tied with the Brewers at 4 games out of first.....the Astros might be the weaker team on paper but they do tend to play really well the last couple months of the year.....definitely the best game out of the televised action on Saturday.

Expect Good Games out of: Ivan Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Don't Expect Good Games out of: Miguel Tejada, Brendan Ryan

Sunday TBS Game:

Phillies (Hamels) vs. Giants (Zito) =3.5

Potential playoff preview. The Phillies just acquired Cliff Lee for a lot less than what the Blue Jays were asking....the Phillies (along with the Dodgers) look to be the teams to beat in the National League...the Giants suprising season plugs along as they are clinging on to the Wild Card lead.....Ryan Garko may not be Cliff Lee but he should make a positive impact in the starting line up

Expect Good Games Out of: Jimmy Rollins
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: Bengie Molina, Raul Ibanez

Dodgers (Billingsley) vs. Braves (Jurrgens) = 3.5

Good weekend ending match-up. Sold starter in Billingsley versus Jair Jurrjens who is quietly having a much better season (155 ERA+) than his 9-7 record would indicate

Expect Good Game Out of: Jair Jurrjens
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Ryan Church

The W-5: They're Hall of Fame Eligible? Um thats nice...I guess

So the last couple of days I've contemplated what I was going to discuss on the W-5....initially it was my take on trade season (but since I sorta did that last week that was scrapped out).....i thought about other Hall of Fame discussions (i.e. who will get inducted ......who's not in the Hall of Fame but should be).....but I decided to take it in another direction.......

I looked on wikipedia on there is a page for Baseball Hall of Fame Balloting 2010 which had some names of several players who are only getting into the Hall of Fame if they pay cover charge.....and here are the five most likely headed to this fate


1-Todd Van Poppel 40-52 5.58 80 ERA+

Known more for being picked ahead of Chipper Jones than any on field accomplishments. Had a couple decent years as a middle reliever but also had 10+ unmemorable years.....i'm pretty sure the A's wished they had picked Chipper

2-Jimmy Haynes 63-89 5.37 83 ERA+

Had a couple unmemorable years for a couple of atrocious early 2000s Brewers team. His Baseball Reference page shows that he was just as bad as I remember him.

3-Brook Fordyce .258/.309/.388 82 OPS+

Medoicre Numbers + Playing >100 games twice in his career= no Cooperstown for you.

4-Josias Manzanillo 13-15 4.71 ERA 93 OPS+

Considering that players connected to steroids and/or the Mitchell Report who had MUCH better careers than Manzanillo are not getting into the Hall of Fame.....i'm pretty sure mediocre middle relievers that Kurt Radomski saw doing steroids first hand (the only player he actually witnessed doing them) i'm pretty sure he ain't getting in.....although as a consolation prize he does get bumped down to only the 4th least likely for taking a Manny Ramirez line drive to the groin (without wearing a cup) to come back and play for six more years.

5-Darren Bragg .255/.340/.381m 85 OPS+

He got traded straight up for Jamie Moyer once. His 8th most similar player career wise is R.J. Reynolds---yes there was a player in the 80s with the same name as a notorious tobacco company......but oddly enough I can't think of too much to say about him.........

Ryan Garko trade + wild card implications

The Giants took a step towards addressing their hitting issues by acquiring Ryan Garko from the Indians for a Class A Pitcher

While I was incorrect in thinking the bat they would pick up would be Adam Dunn, it has been more or less inevitable that the Giants would go looking for an extra bat ever since they played their way into contention about a month ago.....while he's not going to be an MVP player anytime soon (the only stat he's been in the top 10 for is HBP he is a solid hitter hitting at a .285/.362/.424 114 OPS+ that can provide protection for Pablo Sandoval in the Giants line up.......on a side note I do feel bad for the fan sponsoring his baseball-reference page since the sponsor was looking forward to many at-bats for Garko as a member of the Indians

With the Giants 1 1/5 behind the Rockies in the Wild Card chase..any help (especially at the bat) is conducive to the Giants playoff hopes.....regardless of where they play him (first base--his primary position) or the outfield (where he played occasionally) he's definitely an improvement since the Giants starting first baseman (Ishikawa) and two of their outfielders (Lewis and Winn) are both hitting below average this year.......overall, a good smart trade for the Giants....they improve their offense without having to give up too much

It looks like it's a good day to be a Giants fan as in addition to this trade, Tim Lincecum is pitching a gem and dominating enough to trigger a MLB special alert as he's struck out 10 batters in the first five innings........while it's still far from guaranteed the Giants will make the playoffs (coolstandings.com has their odds at 23.3%) , if they do find their way in that pitching staff headed by Lincecum and Cain gives the Giants a real chance to do some serious damage if they get in

Worst Game of the Year......In Progress

This is definitely one of shorter posts.....Brewers down by a touchdown to the WORST team in the league (Nationals)......Jeff Suppan overcoming the fact that he makes $10 million a year to get rocked for 8 runs......Josh Willingham hits two grand slams.....Jody Gerut hit an RBI double but goes on to get thrown at home plate with his team down 13-6........definitely not the smartest move when your hitting .133 and you have an OPS+ of -9 (not sure how that's possible but baseball reference never lies).......well the Brewers being in contention was fun while it lasted......hopefully they can field a decent team in '10

What Rickey Henderson tells us about future HOF Voting

Now, time to give Ricky Henderson the same treatment:

Similar Players Already in:
Paul Molitor
Lou Brock
Joe Morgan
Robin Yount
Al Kaline

The similars not yet in are

Craig Biggio .281/.363/.433 111 OPS+ career

Looking at his numbers, they were a bit lower than I expected. However, he was one of the better players on the Astros for many seasons. He does have a case as his 7 all-star selections shows he was amongst the better players and he is above average on 2 of the 4 HOF monitor indexes......there's still time for people to make up their minds about him since he doesn't come up for voting until 2013

Eventual HOFer---just not on first ballot

Rusty Staub .279/.362/.431 124 OPS+

Played a bit before my time....don't know too much about his career...in the context of the pitcher friendly 60s his 292 career homers look good...had a couple seasons of 150 OPS+...but not enough to get into Cooperstown

Unlikely HOFer

Steve Finley .271/.332/.442 104 OPS+

Pretty average hitter much of his career......developed more pop in his bat in the late 90s(then again who didn't

Unlikely HOFer

Tim Raines .294/.365/.425 123 OPS+

Not the most powerful hitter...but outside of Henderson one of those players whose impact was substantially increased by his pitchers having to worry about him stealing a base

Should be a HOFer but probably won't get in for a while

Vada Pinson .286/.327/.442 110 OPS+

Solid Player, Solid Career....nothing overly noteworthy though

Unlikely HOFer

Like Jim Rice, there's not too much of a glimpse one can get into who will eventually get into the Hall of Fame based on his induction. In Henderson's case....it's more due to him being a unique talent and player (especially on the base paths) than Rice's case where there was a compelling argument for and against his induction...........

Hall of Fame--what this year tells us (if any) about future classes: Jim Rice

In light of Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice being inducted into the hall of fame...I decided to look and see what (if anything) their induction indicates about other players who may or may not have a chance to get in. With both of these players, I based this information off of their baseball-reference pages....specifically the part towards the bottom where it shows the 10 players most similar to them statistically......for no particular reason Jim Rice will get examined first....also, I examined the black ink, gray ink, hall of fame monitor and hall of fame standards categories where I feel that it enhances the discussion.

Out of the 10 players most similar to rice the following are hall-of-famers:

Orlando Cepeda
Duke Snider
Billy Williams
Willie Stargell

Next, on to the remaining similar players and whether they have a chance of being inducted to the hall of fame one day...

Andres Galaraga .288/.347/.499 118 OPS+ Career

Out of the Hall of Fame statistic metrics on baseball-reference, Galaraga is only above the HOF--average in one of them...Also, he had his best years a) in the 90s when power numbers were inflated b) out of 5 best years...4 of them were with the Rockies where the high elevation leads to inflated power numbers.....good player but these two factors make him look like a better player than he was....we'll begin to know if the HOF writers agree on this one when he becomes eligible in 2010

Un-Likely HOF

Ellis Burks .291/.363/.510 126 OPS+

If he hadn't of been as injury prone (he only played more than 150 games twice in his career)...maybe some of his numbers would merit further consideration. Like Galaraga, he did benefit from playing in Colorado....however, he does have an edge over his former teammate as he was able to maintain his power numbers for longer after leaving the Rockies.....this helps, just not enough to get in

Un-Likely HOF

Joe Carter .259/.306/.464 105 OPS+

The further down this most similar players list...the easier it is to see why there was so much dispute over whether or not to make Rice a hall of famer.....Carter's is of course remembered mostly for his World Series winning home run off of Mitch Williams.....otherwise he was a consistent power hitter whose overall value to his team is undermined by ghastly on-base percentage

Definitely not HOF material

Dave Parker .290/.339/.471 121 OPS+

Un-like Carter, Parker has at least somewhat of an argument.....he put up his numbers in an era that wasn't as power friendly as the 90s.....one look at the HOF statistic monitors at baseball-reference show that Parker's offensive numbers are average in the context of current hall of famers...still when he went up for voting in the late 90s he was getting about 20 percent of the vote...he may or may not get in but it won't be for at least several years

HOF--Veterans Committee Several Years Down the Road

Moises Alou .303/.369/.516 128 OPS+

Doesn't come up for voting until at least '14....had the same career OPS+ as Rice at 128....personally I have some bias in favor of Alou due to his higher batting and on-base average even if no one's really mentioned him as one of the greater players of this generation....unfortunately a look at the HOF monitor statistics show's that Alou fell way too short to get his shrine at Cooperstown.....if I had a vote i'd at least consider voting for him but I don't see him getting in

HOF Unlikely

Chili Davis .274/.360/.451 120 OPS+

Continuing on the theme of similar but non-hall of fame players numerically related to Jim Rice, Chili Davis is another player that had a strong, solid above average career but falls way short of hall of fame consideration

HOF Unlikely

What Jim Rice being in the Hall of Fame says about the future: not too much looking at this breakdown it is easy to see why it took Rice longer to get into the hall of fame......while all of the players on the similar list had long, steady careers Rice fell squarely in the middle.....the ones who did get enough to go to Cooperstown are already there.....the one's who haven't are unlikely to join him