The Tuesday F5ive

A few things to pay attention to for Tuesday:

1-Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Network

Hunter vs. Galarraga

Interest Level: 6

Pretty decent Tuesday Night match-up with some playoff implications. The Rangers take the AL-high 4.5 game lead and 81% playoff chances and take on the Tigers, who despite being tied for the Twins at a game and a half back have minimal playoff chance (18%) in comparison to the Twins (36%).

The Rangers are taking Tommy Hunter to the hill who has very quietly who has come out of nowhere to pitch very well (6-0 2.33 era) after coming up from Oklahoma City. If he keeps this up......a Rangers duo of Cliff Lee and Tommy Hunter would make opposing teams dread facing Rangers pitching for the first time since......ever. The Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga who has had a bizarre season to say the least. It's not every year where someone gets sent to the minors twice and pitch a 28-out "perfect" game.

2- Minor League Matinee

Buffalo vs. Rochester MLB Network

According to the MLB Network website, they are extending out to a Triple A matinee and showing a game between the Buffalo Bisons-Mets Affiliate (50-45) and the Rochester Red Wings (35-62). Don't know too much about these Triple-A teams but for some reason a random nationally televised minor league baseball game piqued my interest.

Some ex-MLB players on to this team who may or may not see action include Ramon Ortiz, Oliver Perez (on a rehab assignment stemming from being placed on the DL with an inflated ERA), Brian Bruney & Mike Jacobs.

The Rochester team (Twins) affiliate sits 21 games out in the International League's Northern Division. Ex-major leaguers clinging on for a last chance at the show include Mike Maroth, D'Angelo Jimenez and Jacque Jones. According to their official website, Curt Schilling was their opening day starter in 1989.

3- Conflict Of Interest Game Of The Day:

Cardinals vs. Phillies

Chris Carpenter, how I love/hate the strong season he's having. The good part is he's been an anchor in my fantasy team rotation as he is coming off a very strong performance against the Dodgers. I hate it because he's a major reason why the Cardinals are in first and have a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs and a minor reason why the Brewers playoff odds sit at .5 percent.

4- Pitchers Duel Of The Day:

Dodgers vs. Giants

Lincecum vs. Kershaw

The last time I mentioned Kershaw and pitchers duel in the same sentence (Thursday against Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals) Kershaw didn't hold up his end of the bargain. Maybe the situation of going against the rival Giants and the fact that the Dodgers need a major boost will motivate Kershaw to step up in this start.

5- Random Ex-Big Leaguer Who Signed A Minor League Contract:

Wily Mo Pena

The Padres signed Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal today. One of the moves that seems out of left-field and a bit desperate but so crazy, that it could work. At the very least, he appears to have the raw talent (which didn't completely materialize) as he was a top-100 prospect 3 times (2000, 2002 & 2003). He's even displayed some power in his bat at a big league level as he did hit 26 homers at the age of 22.

However, things seemed to go downhill from there as Pena's career had slipped from there getting to the point where he got DFA'd by the Zombie Expos in March 2009.

Considering his numbers appeared to have peaked and much hasn't been heard about him in the last few years, it was surprising to see that he's still only 28. While his free-swinging tendencies likely makes his career ceiling somewhere around Jeff Francoeur, he does have the capability to impact the offense as he does have plenty of power in his bat (something that is lacking from most Padres hitters not named Adrian Gonzales). This signing of an apparently washed out player may not look big today but he could have a surprise impact on the NL West, having a similar effect that Pat Burrell has had on the Giants. It might sound crazy but not as crazy as a first-place team starting Scott Hairston, Tony Gwynn Jr. and Will Venable in their outfield as unique for its lack of production as it is for the fact that all 3 are the sons of ex-MLB players....and that is why Wily Mo Pena is a deep-sleeper candidate for comeback player of the year.

Outsmarting the experts and why I would vote Chris Carpenter for the Cy Young Award

This is the second (in a yet to be determined amount of columns) where I use logic and reason to outsmart Joe Morgan. This time, instead of taking a broad brush the focus is going to be on the NL Cy Young Race. During his chat last Tuesday, the following question was posed:

Steve (Middletown, CT)

Who is your NL CY Young winner?

Joe Morgan

(11:17 AM)

I would give it to Wainwright, but there are a lot of people that believe that Carpenter deserves it. Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year. Carpenter had the injury. Wainwright led the league in wins and had more innings than Lincecum and Carpenter. ERA and strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do. The name of the game is to win.

Admittedly, the Cy Young Award race is close and all 3 of the pitchers mentioned (Wainwright, Lincecum and Carpenter) have pretty strong cases. The problem I have is the way he reaches his conclusion.....i'll breakdown the segments and then mention why I would vote for Carpenter

a) Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year

Fair enough. Wainwright did lead the NL in innings pitched but didn't necessarily leave his Cy Young competition in the dust. Wainwright had 233, Lincecum 225 1/3 and Carpenter 192 2/3, all three have a long body of work and pitched more than enough innings to contend for the lead in rate statistics (ERA, SO/9, WHIP, etc.)

Using innings pitched for Cy Young Criteria isn't the best logic. For example, Bronson Arroyo was 4th in innings pitched with 220 1/3, but it would be absolutely absurd to vote for him and his 15-13 3.84 era 115 ERA+ season for a Cy Young Award over a more deserving candidate such as Carpenter on this basis.

b) Carpenter had the injury

Alright, he was injured but he only missed about a month. Granted this doesn't help his case but it isn't an automatic dis-qualifier. Still, Carpenter was very dominant and was healthy in the June/July part of the season when the NL Central was close and needed him to step up (which he did). Also, Lincecum only gets a passing mention here and he didn't even lose time to injury.

c) Wainwright led the league in Wins

That's nice...the Cy Young Award is around for the purpose of recognizing the best pitcher. While being a superior pitcher generally leads to more wins, that is not always the case. On a theoretical basis, pitcher A pitches 5 innings gives up 6 runs, leaves with a 10-6 lead which his bullpen holds on to and gets the win. Pitcher B pitches a gem throws 8 shutout innings but gets no run support and gets a no-decision or loss. Is pitcher A a better pitcher because he got the win? no.........while this is one start and a small sample size it does illustrate that having more wins doesn't make one a better pitcher

In a world where wins was used as the criterion for Cy Young voting....a league average pitcher like Jorge de la Rosa 16-9 4.38 era 103 ERA+ would be in this Cy Young discussion while Tim Lincecum's much better 15-win season would be ignored....obviously most people see through the absurdity of the win-total statistic and thankfully no one is dumb enough to vouch for de la Rosa winning a Cy Young for this reason.

To further demonstrate the absurdity of win-loss totals, i'll use my Brewers as an example. Braden Looper (1/2 of the two-headed monster i've named Jaden Loopan) led the Brewers in wins with 14. Was he the best Brewers pitcher this year? Would anyone be dumb enough to argue this? No and I really hope not. Looper gave up a ridiculous amount of home runs but also had a ridiculous amount of run support.

In comparison, Yovani Gallardo had a much better season, was the ace of the staff and ended up with a record of 13-12. Anyone with half a brain would realize that Gallardo is a much better pitcher than Looper and the differences in win-loss records had a lot more to do with one pitcher getting much better run support than anything else........a vote based on win totals could lead to a Looper-esque pitcher being backed for Cy Young Award and that is a scary notion.

d) ERA and Strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do

Since I just finished a very long-winded rant about the weakness of the win stati'll focus on the ERA part of the argument. Since I don't necessarily hold high batter strikeouts against a player if they are productive hitters otherwise (i.e. Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds) i'm going to divert my argument towards the ERA side.

While ERA isn't a perfect stat, it does a much better job of measuring pitching effectiveness than wins. It does cut pitchers some slack in some cases such as if they give up a big hit after an error for example but there are worse stats (Wins)....but it gives a reasonable portrayal of how good or bad a pitcher is

Carpenter 2.24

Lincecum 2.48

Wainwright 2.62

Also, even though he hasn't been in the Cy Young discussion at all (due to bad luck in W-L column) i'd like to recognize Jair Jurrgens for having an excellent season and having a better ERA than Wainwright.....he had to work much more for his 14-win season than Braden Looper and Carl Pavano had to work for theirs.

Personally, I depend more on the ERA+ statistic as a better metric and to give context to where these pitchers rank within the league (Carpenter 185+, Lincecum 173+, Wainwright 158 ERA+)........to wrap around to the initial argument, why do I mention these numbers.....well because the object of the Cy Young Award is to recognize the best pitcher and the ERA stats are able to give us a quick and dirty measurement of who pitched better, pitcher A, pitcher B or pitcher C

e) If I had a Vote for the Cy Young Award I would vote in this order and because:

1) Chris Carpenter-By every measurable metric, he has the most well-rounded and dominant body of work....the missed starts weaken his case but it only makes the race closer....but not cost him the award

2) Tim Lincecum- Lincecum is a beast, a freak of nature (in a good way) and one of the most exciting players to watch. If the season had ended in August I may have been swayed to place him #1. However he has two flaws in his body of work which drop him to second. First, he didn't quite measure up statistically to Carpenter. Second, even if he did what he did with the season on the line would have been used as a tie-breaker that he would have lost. He had a bad month (by his standards) a 3.38 era in September and most importantly got rocked in a crucial game against LA on the 20th 5 ER in 4 innings when the Giants were playing for their playoff lives. Carpenter on the other hand, was unbeatable in July (when St. Louis was fighting for NL Central Supremacy) and in August (when they were pulling away).

3) Adam Wainwright- I know it may sound like i'm being critical of him in this article. But he had an amazing season and a strong breakout year. Carpenter's and Lincecum's seasons were just better.