Friday/Early Saturday MLB National TV Preview

Well, the weekend is upon us. Things looking better baseball wise this week. I'm very happy that the Brewers rolled the Pirates 36-1 over a 3 day stretch including a 20-0 grand finale in today's game. Gloating time is over, on to the games.

Friday: Tigers vs. Rangers MLB Network

Scherzer vs. Feldman

Interest Level:4

It's too early to tell (as of this writing) what the Tigers record will be coming into this game as they are in the 3rd inning of their game with the Angels. The Tigers were I team that I thought was worse than most people thought but thus far that has been a wrong assessment. Max Scherzer takes the hill in Friday's game. He definitely has lots of potential which we've only seen parts of so far but he's looking good so far in 2010......a chance to see someone in the start of their breakout season perhaps?

The Rangers are off to a 6-9 start and with Seattle and LA of Anaheim of North America getting their acts together (plus Oakland playing better than expected) it may be in their best interest to get their act together. The Rangers bring Scott Feldman to the hill....sure he may have won 17 games last year but i'm not sold on him as an ace pitcher.

Saturday: Yankees vs. Angels FOX

Pettite vs. Pineiro

Interest Level: 6

If I want to watch the afternoon game this is probably the game i'm stuck with like it or not as both the Yankees and a team they show on TV all the time here (Angels) are both involved.

On a side note, this game involves the three players (Teixiera, Wood and Vasquez) who have struggled the most on my fantasy team.

The Yankees are currently battling the Rays for top positioning in the AL East. Andy Pettite looks to continue his strong start to the season in this game.

The Angels had a rough first week of the season but have battled back to .500 (for at least the next couple hours). Still, they are sitting 1 1/2 out at this point and look to be in the thick of things (while not in first) in the AL West. The Angels start Joel Pineiro who has pitched better than I expected so far. I thought his strong 2009 performance was only going to last as long as he had Dave Duncan as his pitching coach and I thought the Angels over-paid for him. Pineiro looks to keep proving detractors like myself wrong in this game.

Mariners vs. White Sox Saturday FOX

Fister vs. Garcia

Interest Level: 7

The Mariners have also started slowly but have gotten things together to get within 1/2 a game of overtaking Oakland for AL West Supremacy. The Mariners start Merced, California product Doug Fister in this game. Not knowing much about Fister other than he was in the back end of the M's rotation, I picked him up on my razzball team a couple weeks ago. This has not turned out to be a very smart decision. Doug Fister is on notice, one more strong start from him and he gets dropped from my Razzball team.

The White Sox counter with ex-Mariner pitcher Freddy Garcia. Garcia definitely isn't as strong of a pitcher as he was when he pitched for Seattle. In fact, he's actually pitched pretty poorly in his first couple starts and one of the many reasons the White Sox find themselves currently in the basement.

Baseball On TV This Weekend

Braves vs. Giants Friday MLB Network

Hudson vs. Sanchez

Interest Level: 6

Will this be the beginning of Tim Hudson's bounce-back season? What will Jason Heyward do to help his team (As a side note, I am glad that the Braves bypassed the send him down for a couple months to bypass the arbitration rules, realized Heyward was their best option and let him start the season in Atlanta....I wouldn't be shocked to see the Braves awarded karmically with a post-season berth for not trying (poorly) to convince everyone that he needs time to "develop" his game say until late-May/early-June when he would "magically" be ready to face major-league pitching

The Giants counter with Jonathan Sanchez. Had an interesting '09 started poorly, threw a no-hitter, finished strong. Is this the start of a 2010 breakout season? On a side note, the Giants handled their prospect situation (Buster Posey) differently be sending him down to Triple-A despite a strong spring.

A's vs. Angels Saturday MLB Network

Sheets vs. Weaver

Interest Level: 9

This week has seen my first exposure to J.J Hardy in a non-Brewers uniform and it looks like our first exposure to Ben Sheets in a non-Brewers uniform. Of course, this is Sheets first big league appearance since 2008 and this step one of the journey to see whether Sheets is worth the investment and can he actually stay healthy for a full season. He has the talent, just a matter of staying healthy to make a full season worth of starts.

The Angels start Jered Weaver ( who happens to be the best MLB pitcher that I watched in-person while they were still in college---he was the starting pitcher for a Long Beach State vs. Cal Poly game I went to in 2003.....I don't know much about college baseball but I know that he DESTROYED Big West hitting)...and on a fantasy baseball note.....will Brandon Wood break out of his slump?

Yankees vs. Rays Saturday Fox, Sunday TBS

Sabathia vs. Davis Saturday

Burnett vs. Shields Sunday

Interest Level:4

Umpire Joe West made news this week by saying that the Yankees and Red Sox take too many timeouts and are making the length of games longer. Not sure how true that is but the Yankees and Rays took their sweet time determining who would be starting their games this weekend (single-handedly pushing back the posting of this post by a day)....Personally i'm more concerened with the Randy Levine vs.Mark Attanasio dispute over salary distribution. My take: once every team has their own network to run their games (YES Network) and a national network (ESPN) obsessed with their every move.....then he may have a point. Sure these things have nothing to do with the upcoming games but c'mon it's the Yankees, if you miss these games all you have to do is wait a couple of days.

Mariners vs. Rangers Saturday FOX

Hernandez vs. Harrison

Interest Level: 6

With FOX's regional coverage combined with living on the west coast....i'm probably stuck with this game and this game only regardless of personal preference. On the bright side, this should be my first chance to see this year's re-tooled Mariners team in action. Felix Hernandez, the reigning AL leader in Wins, Winning Percentage, Wild Pitches & Hits/9 Innnings gets start #2 of the season.

The Rangers counter with Matt Harrison who is making career start #27 but has yet to replicate the success of his Saturday counterpart. If nothing else, he has shown a high level of endurance as he threw 2 complete games in his 11 starts from '09 (good for 9th in the AL)

Brewers vs. Cardinals Saturday Fox, Sunday ESPN

See series preview post.

If Thursday is the New Friday than this is the preview for some televised early weekend games

So, originally I planned on previewing all of the weekend action (Thursday-Sunday) in one post but since TBD is tentatively scheduled to make several starts for several teams from Friday to Sunday, I decided to give Friday-Sunday its own post and break down what was left (tomorrow's MLB Network Triple-Header).

Dodgers vs. Pirates Thursday MLB Network

Billingsley vs. Malholm

Interest Level: 5

On paper this should be a mismatch in favor of the Dodgers but considering how the Pirates destroyed the Dodgers on Opening day, that isn't a given. Is this the start that allows Billingsley to bounce back from a weak 2009 season or do his struggles continue?

What to make of Malholm? He was a top-10 pick in 2003 but so far has been a fairly average pitcher. Is 2010 his breakout season? How long do the Pirates stay in first? Will Ryan Church stop driving in runs and allow me to rise above 11th place in a league with only 10 human teams?

Mariners vs. A's Thursday MLB Network

Fister vs. Anderson

Interest Level: 5

Doug Fister starts his first full season in the bigs (pitched in 11 games last year) against AL West Divisional Rival Oakland.

Brett Anderson is the main reason to pay attention to this game. He held his own in his rookie year last year and it's scary how good he could be within a couple of years (he's only 22). As good as he will be in a few years, the A's will be bad this year as they seem to replicate the as little offense as possible model as their neighbors on the other side of the bay, the Giants.

Not sure what Billy Beane was thinking when he DFA'd Jack Cust. He made his legacy/reputation on building a team around guys like Cust....sure other GMs eventually ripped off his strategies/methods making it harder for him to get the players he wanted. Seriously, this team was already power challenged before this DFA and getting rid of a player who's gone yard 84 times in the last 3 years is not going to help any.

Cubs vs. Braves Thursday MLB Network

Wells vs. Hanson

Interest Level: 6

A battle between a couple pitchers who had strong rookie years and are looking to avoid the sophomore slump. Hanson got the upper hand in the Rookie of the Year voting (3rd vs. 6th), came into the 2009 season with much more hype surrounding him......does he make this a clean sweep by ultimately producing more than Wells or will this 6-seed prevail in the end?

AL West Preview Part Two

So, we did the first part of the AL West preview, yesterday. At the halfway point the power rankings are as follows:

Angels-16

Rangers-19

Mariners-23

Athletics-30

Now off to the Pitchers, First the Starters.

Mariners- Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee/Ryan Rowland-Smith/Ian Snell/Luke French-4.5

Angels- Jered Weaver/Joe Saunders/Scott Kazmir/Ervin Santana/Matt Palmer-9

Athletics- Dallas Braden/Brett Anderson/Ben Sheets/Trevor Cahill/Vin Mazzaro-13.5

Rangers-Scott Feldman/Rich Harden/Derek Holland/Tommy Hunter/Brandon McCarthy

The Mariners might be a bit short at the back of the rotation but have a couple of things going for them.

1) Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee is a VERY potent 1-2 punch

2) It's a contract year for Cliff Lee so expect his A-Game (and a possible Cy Young in 2010.

In terms of depth, the Angeles are stronger but i'm not buying Weaver as a staff ace. The A's have a lot of good young talent (Braden, Anderson, etc.) that will make this rotation to be reckoned with in a few years. Anderson is on the cusp on a breakout season but Braden, Cahill, et.al are still a couple years away. The wild-card in this equation is Ben Sheets. If they can somehow get 25-plus starts out of Sheets, they could push themselves into the second best rotation in the division but if being a Brewers fan has taught me anything it's that getting that many starts out of Sheets is anything but guaranteed.

The Rangers.......their rotation hinges on Rich Harden staying healthy (an even bigger IF than Ben Sheets staying healthy) but beyond Harden, nothing about the Rangers rotation is particularly impressive.

If the game is on the line, we are likely to see

4.5 Athletics- Andrew Bailey/Michael Wuertz/Craig Breslow

9- Rangers Frank Francisco/Darren O'Day/Neftali Feliz

13.5 Mariners-David Aardsma/Mark Lowe/Sean White

18-Angels-Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney/Scot Shields

Andrew Bailey had a pretty epic rookie year and looks poised to have a strong follow-up. Wuertz and Breslow had solid seasons last year and I see that continuing in '10.

Went back and forth on the positioning for the Rangers and Mariners. I'm skeptical on Aardsma ability to follow-up his 2009 season and that ended up being the deciding factor.

As for the Angels, yes Fuentes racked up a bunch of saves but that seems to be more because the Angels are in the position to win more often than not. Fuentes and Rodney may be familiar to more fans but i've never been blown away by these two pitchers. Add in that Shields is coming off an injury marred year and may or may not be effective and that's why their bullpen ranks dead last.

The total scores for the pitching staffs are:

Athletics -18

Mariners- 18

Angels-27

Rangers- 27

Bringing us to a final tally off:

Mariners-41 1st

Angels-43 2nd

Rangers-46 3rd

Athletics-48 4th

So what do we have here? A division that is pretty close top to bottom and a division where 10 games or less could be the difference between first and last. Looking into my crystal ball that may or may not exist, I see the 1-2 combo of Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez to do enough to mask other weaknesses (back of the rotation) and injury concerns (Milton Bradley...matter of when not if) to win their first AL West title since 2001.

For the Angels, A weak bullpen may cause them to miss the playoffs for the first time since '06. For the Rangers, weak pitching is likely to undermine their offensive prowess (in other words the Rangers are in the same predicament they've been in for the last 15 years).

The Athletics are definitely a team on the rise....I think their time will come in a few years but they still have a few too many holes to put together a playoff run.

AL West Preview--Part One

So with the Spring Training games starting Today, I felt it was time to preview the season and make some predictions for the upcoming season. I also devised a system for doing this. Starting with this post i'm going to look at each division and see how they stack on a position by position basis from top to bottom. The point system for this will be golf-style (i.e. the lower the score the better i.e. the strongest team by position gets 1 point, 2 points for second, etc......this will be the scoring system for position players......)

For Pitching (Part Two of each divisional post) the scoring will be adjusted to equalize for hitting and pitching. For the AL, the scoring will go 4.5, 9, 13.5, etc. from best to worst for starting rotation and the bullpens (Note: In the NL it will be 4, 8, 12......)

With Further Ado, here are my rankings for the AL West

Catcher:

Kurt Suzuki-1

Jarod Saltalamacchia-2

Jeff Mathis-3

Rob Johnson-4

By far the weakest position area division wide. Ironically, this is also the only position where the A's stand out offensively. Out of the only three the only thing memorable is how long Saltalamacchia's last name is. Kurt Suzuki will have a solid year for the other 3 teams, a glaring weakness.

First Base:

Kendry Morales-1

Daric Barton-2

Chris Davis-3

Mike Carp-4

Not sure if Morales is going to repeat last year (my prediction: about .300 hitter still but homers in the low 20s) but he's still the class of the AL West first basemen. Daric Barton is never going to be a power threat but he's a solid candidate for having a bounce-back season. Chris Davis, is an entirely different story.

As i've mentioned earlier, I received Ron Shandler's baseball forecaster in the mail about a month ago and have taken a look at the numbers for various players that have piqued my interest. I've also came up with an All-Star team that no player want's to be a part of, The Bill Hall All-Stars.

Named after former Brewer Bill Hall. Back in 2006, I was convinced Bill Hall was going to be a star player for the Brewers for years to come. He had a massive power surge (went yard 35 times) sure he struck out a lot (even then) but the sky seemed the limit. If I knew then what I knew know I would have known better. Obscured in his power spike was the fact that his Contact % went from 79 to 70 from 2005 to 2006. After a slight bump up in 2007, the contact rate has crashed to 64% (15% drop in a 5 year stretch).

Based on this info, I invented the Bill Hall All-Star team for players whose contact % dropped 10% or more in a five year period as a way to predict other players whose production is sadly going to spiral downwards.

What does this have to do with Chris Davis? Well factoring in the data in the Baseball Forecaster (which factors in Major League Equivalent numbers with actual MLB numbers) plus data from AA and above shows a 13% drop in contact rate in the last few years. Translation: I'm not buying on Chris Davis having a breakout season now or ever.

Second Base:

Ian Kinsler-1

Jose Lopez-2

Howie Kendrick-3

Mark Ellis-4

Position-wise, the toughest call to make as these players are fairly close from top to bottom. Kinsler has the best combination of upside and proven track record which allowed him to be above his competition.

Shortstop

Erick Aybar-1

Elvis Andrus-2

Jack Wilson-3

Cliff Pennington-4

Aybar, Andrus and Wilson are all players who strike me as more valuable to an actual team than a fantasy baseball team. While Andrus will probably be the best of these players within 2 or 3 years, I still think Aybar is a slighty better player until proven otherwise. Pennington is a distant 4th here as I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the leagues weakest hitters this year.

Third Base

Michael Young-1

Chone Figgins-2

Kevin Kouzmanoff-3

Brandon Wood-4

The ranking for Third Base was amongst the more difficult one to make (primarily because of Brandon Wood). On talent alone, he would be in the top-2 but on the same token it's hard to justify ranking him above proven players like Young and Figgins before he even sheds the AAAA label. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go deep 25-30 times but we don't know whether he'll actually do it. While Wood's ceiling is higher than Kouzmanoff, he gets bumped to last as unlike Kouzmanoff, Wood has yet to prove he can produce at a big-league level.

Left Field

Juan Rivera-1

Milton Bradley-2

Josh Hamilton-3

Rajai Davis-4

On talent alone this Bradley or Hamilton would have gotten the nod but injury concerns bumped both of them down. I originally though Hamilton was going to bounce back in '10 but the fact that he's already dealing with injury issues gives me second thoughts. On pure talent alone, Bradley would have a good shot at #1 but it's a given he's going to either get injured, suspended and/or incite a brawl to the level of the 1984 Padres/Braves fight and get banned for life.

Center Field

Torii Hunter-1

Franklin Gutierrez-2

Julio Borbon-3

Coco Crisp-4

Torii Hunter far and away stands out amongst this group......he's an asset with both the glove and at the plate. Gutierrez is an asset with the glove but his offensive numbers will likely regress in 2010.

Right Field

Ichiro Suzuki-1

Nelson Cruz-2

Bobby Abreu-3

Ryan Sweeney-4

Went back and forth on this one. Ichiro may not have the power of Cruz and Abreu but is a better all-around player. Despite not placing him number 1, I still see Nelson Cruz having a nice follow-up to his breakout season.

Designated Hitter

Hideki Matsui-1

Jake Fox-2

Ken Griffey Jr.-3

David Murphy-4

I still think Matsui has a couple strong years in his bat. Jake Fox going to Oakland was one of the more under-rated signings this winter and I think he'll be one of the dark-horse signings.

Griffey Jr. has had a great career but he's definitely on the down side of his career.

Well, we have the offensive players ranked by position for each team in the AL West.....at the half way point of the AL West preview, the rankings are as follows (Note: The Lower the score the better)

Angels-16

Rangers-19

Mariners-23

Athletics-30