Wednesday, September 30, 2009

A Fan of Close Pennant Races? Tuesday was not your lucky day

As the title indicates, Tuesday did nothing to ensure that this year's pennant races would go down to a photo finish.

It didn't look that way initially as the Twins were able to squeak out a win over the Tigers in the first game of their double-header. However, in the second game the Tigers were able to stretch their lead back to 2 games as Justin Verlander pitched just well enough to let the Tigers hold on to beat the Twins.

The Twins still aren't out of it yet. If they can pull out victories tonight and Thursday we will be going into the weekend with a tied AL Central. Personally, i'm indifferent towards who wins the AL Central, I just want to see an interesting last weekend in baseball.

In the NL Wild Card race, things didn't go so great on Tuesday. The Braves ended up losing a close one to the Marlins 5-4. Meanwhile, the Brewers went into Colorado with a chance to make an impact on the race and keep it close. Unfortunately, they played more like the 77-80 team that they are than a team with any sense of motivation.

While it's nothing more than a consolation......they at least forced extra innings. The Brewers went into the 9th down 5-2 and tied it on wait for it.........(a Jason Kendall three-run homer).....and no that's not a typo.....Jason Kendall actually did something productive offensively by hitting a game-tying home run.

However, this being the Brewers and all, they found a way to not win last nights game. For this, they turned to veteran reliever Dave Weathers who gave-up the walk off home run to Chris Iannetta.

Well what does this say for todays game? For the Twins, it's pretty much a must-win game tonight against the Tigers. While losing tonight won't equate to mathematical elimination, tonights pitching match-up favors the Twins and if they lose tonight they'll likely be dead-team walking tomorrow.

For the Braves, they are more or less in win-out or else mode. For the Rockies, well they tend to find new ways to win games and they get a chance to tee-off against Jeff Suppan so all they need to do is continue what they are doing.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Playoffs Play-In Series Preview: Tigers-Twins

So the playoff chase has been pretty anti-climatic. The only two races left in play are the NL Wild Card (with the Rockies leading the Braves by 2 1/2) and the Tigers clinging onto a 2 game lead over the Twins.

While arguments can be made for the relevance of the Rockies-Brewers series and the Braves-Marlins series, this weeks Twins-Tigers series carries much more playoff implications since both teams are directly involved in fighting for the same spot. This series is pretty much make or break for the Twins. They need to take 3 out of 4 to at least tie.......a split to stay mathematically alive...........

Monday
Blackburn 11-11 4.18 era 99 ERA+ vs. Porcello 14-9 4.14 era 110 ERA+

Blackburn is in his second full season as a Twins starter. He's been pretty average thus far. A win here would be crucial for Blackburn and the Twins. He's had mixed results against the Tigers 2-3 4.50 era in his career.

The Tigers have their 20-year old phenom Porcello taking the hill. Barring injury, he has an excellent career ahead of him. In addition to being the #2 guy on a contending team....he's also gotten into a brawl (which he won) against the greek god of walks....Kevin Youkilis. He's also had mixed results against the Twins going 1-2 3.71 era.

At first glance Porcello and the Tigers have the edge in this match-up. Blackburn has the slight edge of experience in this one. Although it's only his second full year....he has some pennant race experience as he was in the Twins rotation when they were neck and neck with the White Sox last year (although he didn't pitch that well during that time).

Tuesday
Duensing 5-1 3.33 era 125 ERA+ vs. Verlander 17-9 3.41 era 133 ERA+

On Tuesday, it will be the Twins turn to start a rookie as Brian Duensing takes the start. The Tigers counter with their ace Justin Verlander. He has bounced back from a disappointing 2008 to be fulfill the ace role in the Tigers rotation. However, he hasn't quite dominated the Twins in his career as he is 4-6 with a 4.26 era. Point being, he hasn't been automatic against the Twins and with their recent resurgence, this game is anything but a guarantee for the Tigers.

Wednesday
Pavano 13-11 4.86 era 91 ERA+ vs. Bonine 0-1 4.60 era 99 ERA+

The Twins start hired gun Carl Pavano in this game. He's been a solid (if untyped) pick up for the Twins. He's provided some stability in the rotation and has managed to not get hurt. While his overall body of work isn't the greatest, he has dominated against the Tigers in his career
going 4-0 with a 1.69 era.

The Tigers start with Eddie Bonine in this game. Its unclear how much can be expected out of him. He's only started 8 games and hasn't really stood out. Probably not the best person to start with the season on the line......in other words, this would be a good place for him to step up and make a name for himself.

Thursday
Baker 14-9 4.48 era 93 ERA+ vs. Robertson 2-2 5.56 era 82 ERA+

The Tigers start Scott Baker in this crucial game. Like his teammate Blackburn, he's been fairly average against the Tigers in his career (4-4 4.57 era)........hes been fairly average this year but if he steps up in this game any struggles would be forgotten about pretty quickly.

The Tigers start Nate Robertson in this game. Considering that he's pitched worse since the Tigers 2006 World Series appearance, this match-up definitely doesn't favor the Tigers. Still, he has experience in the post-season and having an experienced hand going during the pennant race may lead to Robertson pitching better than he has.

In reality...its tough to see what (if any) impact the winner of this series and division will have on the post-season. Neither of these teams are going to be mistaken for the '27 Yankees soon. However, the playoff implications more than make up for the flaws in these teams. Either way, it should be an exciting series to watch and i'm looking forward (keeping fingers crossed) for an exciting last weekend of the baseball season.

Brewers-Rockies Preview: Last Chance to be Spoilers

So the Brewers haven't played as well as expected. Things didn't quite go as planned and they've seen themselves fall to the middle of the pack. Still, they have a chance to do something truly great this week. That being to make the NL Wild Card chase much closer and more interesting and to make the last weekend of the baseball season exponentially more relevant.

And what can we attribute this to? Well they have a three game set coming up against the NL Wild Card leading Colorado Rockies. As of today, they lead Atlanta by 2 1/2 games. The Rockies just finished beating the Cardinals 2 out 3 including a thrilling win this afternoon. Will the Brewers play over their heads and bring the Rockies down with them? Or will they play like a team that is 77-79 after 156 games?

Brewers 77-79 vs. Rockies 88-68

Tuesday
Narveson 2-0 3.82 era 110 ERA+ vs. Marquis 15-12 3.98 era 113 ERA+

The Brewers start Chris Narveson who's really only had a chance to start games in September. So far he's made the most of it. Narveson seems perfectly suited to play the spoiler role. He's been back and forth between Nashville this year, he struggled horribly his first time up and he's pitched his best ball in September. He's coming off his best start this year where he struck out 10 Cardinals.

The Rockies counter with Jason Marquis. He's a solid pitcher having a slightly better than average season. However, he's struggled in his career against the Crew going 5-8 with a 4.50 era in his career. Also, Craig Counsell has hit relatively well against him in his career. Does Marquis rise above this less than inspiring track record against the Crew or does he rise to the occasion and inch the Rockies closer to another playoff bid?

Wednesday
Suppan 7-11 5.04 era 84 ERA+ vs. Hammel 9-8 4.30 era 105 ERA+

If there's one Brewers pitcher who does not have it in him to rise to an occasion it is definitely Jeff Suppan. Allegedly he got paid a bunch because he got lucky and had a couple good weeks in the 2006 playoffs. Well, that Suppan didn't show up last year when he went 0-for september. His playoff expertise no-showed last year when he got rocked by the Phils. And it definitely didn't show up Thursday night when he was a batting practice pitcher for the Phillies. Point being, if there's one pitcher in this series least likely to contribute to the Brewers playing the spoiler role, it is Jeff Suppan.

The Rockies counter with Jason Hammel. Hammel got traded from the Rays straight up for a minor leaguer in April and has made the Rockies look smart by solidifying the back of the rotation. This is Hammel's first year pitching in the NL. It's tough to say much about how good he is against the Brewers (since he's only had one start....which he won). However, it doesn't matter too much since he's matching up against Jeff Suppan and therefore doesn't need to pitch that good to win this game.

Thursday
Parra 11-10 6.16 era 68 ERA+ vs. TBD

If anyone's been the biggest embodiment of the Brewers struggles in the starting rotation this year, it's been Manny Parra. However, he also has the highest career ceiling amongst all starters not named Yovani Gallardo. If there's one Brewers pitcher who's just as likely to pitch a gem as they are to give up 10 runs in a game it's Parra.

Point being, Parra could go a long way to diminish the bad memories of this season by stepping up and putting a dent in the Rockies playoff hopes.

While this series would be a lot more fun if the Brewers were actually playing for something other than pride, if the Brewers play well in this series at least they can say that they had some impact on the playoff race by making the last weekend of this season a lot more interesting than it looked like it was going to be.





College Football (with one exception) and movies

Yesterday, I was watching Old School on tv (during/in-between college football games). It got my thinking a little bit. I was surfing the web and stumbled across Bravo's 100 Funniest Movies list which was graced by Old School's presence.. Instead of the normal College Football recap post......that's right it's time for another sports/non-sports list crossover posting.

7- Ace Ventura: Pet Detective- Penn St. Nittany Lions

After Penn St's 4th quarter melt down against Big 11 conference mate Iowa, these Nittany Lions have their BCS hopes severely wounded. It would have been one thing to lose to an elite conference team but losing to Iowa.....thank's for showing up and nurse yourselves up to better health next year.

16- Old School- Alabama

I've seen this movie many times and it never gets old. Involving starting a fraternity made up of adults who had reached their peak only to fade into adulthood for several years only to come back strong with a vengeance............. FRANK THE TANK!!!!!!

Well Alabama's football history has been the same way. They built up a strong tradition won lots of national championships (not to mention having some of the coolest helmets in college football---something about the numbers and helmets is appealing)....all was good and well until the mid-90s......they faded into irrelevance and obscurity (similar to Notre Dame).....and they looked to be every bit as irrelevant and mediocre as the "Fighting" Irish.

Then, they caught the 2 o'clock home, separated from their mediocrity and had their Mitch-A-Palooza. They hired Nick Saban (so he's not the most honest person, or a great person and he's inevitably going to leave Alabama for a higher paycheck) but he has made Alabama relevant again. He got them within minutes from a BCS title game this year and they've looked really strong this year and have a reasonable chance of winning the title this year.

20- The Jerk- LaGarrete Blount

Punching an opposing player in the head after losing to said team.....definitely Jerk-like behavior. Suspending him for the year seems to have worked out so far as they've gotten a couple of good wins against Cal and Utah since the punch and the suspension.

39-Best In Show- Virginia Tech/South Carolina/Iowa

They might not be the best teams overall, but they were the best in this week's set of College Football games as these teams all scored victories over Top-10 teams.

42-Austin Powers-Int'l man of Mystery (the exception) Bus Cook---Brett Favre---Jay Cutler

I came up with this analogy a couple weeks ago spontaneously and decided to mention it here. Bus Cook obviously is Brett Favre's agent. Cook, like Favre obviously wants to stick it to the Packers. After trying for a couple of years, they finally managed to sleaze their way to the Minnesota Vikings. Favre has become a villain, a hated rival, just embodies lots of negative traits against humanity. He is the Dr. Evil.

During the off season, another one of Cook's clients, Jay Cutler had a fit because Josh McDaniels was thinking about trading for Matt Cassell. Even though this didn't happen Cutler was still acting like a 5-year old (like Favre). Like Favre, Cutler has the same agent. Like Favre, Cutler got traded to a team that is arch-rivals with the Packers (Bears). Like Favre, Cutler has a strong arm, huge ego, acts childish, is a "gunslinger" and throws lots of interceptions. Basically, Cutler is a younger, less talented, equally childish version of Favre, I shall call him mini-me.

51-Ferris Bueller's Day Off- California

So the Cal Bears didn't literally take the day off to explore Chicago and instead played their scheduled game against Oregon. Still, with the way they played they might of well taken the day off. Thanks for showing up for the BCS contention these few weeks and we'll see you again in 2010.

75-Dumb and Dumber- Poll Voters/Ole Miss

Really, Mississippi in the top 5. A 9-win season, an upset over Florida (last year) and a bowl win over a Texas Tech team going through the motions makes a top five team? It would be one thing if they lost to an elite team such as Florida or Alabama. They couldn't even beat a South Carolina team that never has and never will be elite. Even though South Carolina won, they didn't even look good while winning. They max out at 7-5, they commit dumb penalties, they don't completely capitalize on opportunities. Pretty much, they're the SEC equivalent to Michigan State (NOT a good thing).........despite their inherent mediocrity they still didn't find a way to lose to this alleged #4 team.

77-Flirting with Disaster--LSU/Michigan

For struggling to/needing to pull a win out of nowhere against inferior teams that they should of blown out (by halftime). [Mississippi State and Indiana respectively] Still these two teams did well in the one area that ultimately matters (not losing), are still undefeated and could still run the table and get to the top of the BCS pecking order.

87-Kentucky Fried Movie- Kentucky

To not showing up against Florida. Sure, Kentucky is never going to be good at football and nobody is expecting them to beat Florida. But to be down 31-0 after the first quarter. That's the type of things that happens to a division 1-AA not an SEC team (albeit a bad one).

91-Revenge of the Nerds Boise State/TCU/Houston

The Non-BCS/BCS school debate has taken on the Jocks vs. Nerds setup depicted in this movie. The BCS schools (and their advocates such as David Whitley) want to do everything possible to discredit the rest of these teams and to hog all the money and glory for themselves.

The Boise's, TCUs and Houston's of this world just want their chance to show they are just as good (if not better) than some of these BCS teams and to have a chance to play for the BCS title game and be recognized for the teams they are fielding.

So far, there is reasonable hope that it could happen this year. Boise State has cracked the top 5 and has a win over a solid Oregon team to their credit. TCU just went on the road and beat Clemson. Last but definitely not least Houston and their success against the Big 12. They followed up their win over Oklahoma State with a thrilling come-from behind victory over Texas Tech. Point being...there are three undefeated teams that are ready and capable of beating BCS-caliber teams regardless of how much others don't want it to happen.




Friday, September 25, 2009

Mark Reynolds strikes out but he can hit....David Eckstein, not so much

Alright, so I was watching MLB Network last night. Usually what they're talking about makes sense but for about 5 minutes last night, the normal didn't apply.

They were cutting into the Padres-Rockies game last night with the Rockies up 3-2 in the 7th. The Padres had the bases loaded and one out. They had they little engine that could a.k.a David Eckstein coming up to the plate. Almost on cue, the commentators starting gushing about his clutch hitting "abilities" and about how he's the player you want up in a key spot. While he did manage to get a sac fly on this given time......if I was a fan of the Padres (or whoever is overspending on Eckstein at the given time) he would be one of the last guys I want up in that spot.

It also didn't help that they showed a graphic showing that Eckstein is a .218 career hitter with the bases loaded. He's somehow managed to hit 4 grand slams during that time but a .218 average isn't going to get you mistaken for Tony Gwynn. To make matters worse, his career OBP with the bases loaded is a ghastly .238. They start talking about how he's gonna help the Padres, they're bringing him back blah blah blah while forgetting to mention that he's hitting 18 percent below league average this year.

As bad as this was, they start talking about how they would not want up in that spot Mark Reynolds because he strikes out too much. While this obviously is not a good trait, he does have one little thing going for him. He happens to be a lot better at baseball than David Eckstein. He's gone yard 43 time this year (Eckstein has 33 in 1,187 career games). When it comes to walks, he's not Barry Bonds but he has drawn a respectable 74 walks. If he keeps improving, he could become the greatest 3TO (Three True Outcomes) player of this generation. There's also the little thing of Reynolds pretty much schooling Eckstein in OPS+ (131 to 82)

And back to the original claim that started the Eckstein love fest, Reynolds hitting with the bases loaded. I will concede this area needs lots of work (his career line is .150/.275/.250--small sample size (51 plate appearances) but he's capable of better regardless of the situation. If the games on the line and the bases are loaded i'd rather have the guy who's a consistent threat to go yard, can draw a walk and imposes fear into the opposing pitcher rather than a back of the lineup middle fielder who is known more for being 5'6'' and being gritty than for actually being a good hitter.

I know there's nothing original about calling David Eckstein mediocre but I can't listen to 5 minutes of hearing about how "great" he is without venting.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Flash Forwarding to Week 3 NFL Action

For the second straight week, I am writing my NFL preview post in context of a season premier of a TV show. This week i'm multi-tasking between this post and the series premier of Flash Forward. Not even 10 minutes in and everything has delved into chaos (there was even a billboard for oceanic airways in the background)

Anyways, i ain't here to talk about the island (tonight) 8 15s or synchronized blackouts.....its time to talk about some football.

Packers 1-1 vs. Rams 0-2

I'm still trying to figure out how the Packers lost to Bengals of all teams. How did Cedric Benson manage to have a good game? How did Chad Ochocinco (or whatever he's calling himself this week) manage a successful Lambeau leap? What happened to the good old days (2006) when an opposing player attempting to pull this stunt got pushed back onto the field.

As bad as things were for the Packers they have at least one thing going for them, they're not the Rams. This is a golden opportunity for the Packers to add one to the win column before their Monday Night showdown against the hated Vikings.

Colts 2-0 vs. Cardinals 1-1

The Colts are coming off a thrilling late win over the Dolphins on MNF. It hasn't been pretty or dominating but the Colts still look like they're going to be strong even with a change at head coach.

The Cardinals were able to bounce back with a win over the Jaguars. The Jags look like they're heading for a terrible season. Pretty much, this game will do a lot to determine if the Cardinals still have some of that mojo that almost got them a Super Bowl win (and the Armageddon that would have followed) or if they're going to be amongst the many Super Bowl-losing teams to not even sniff the post-season.

Redskins 1-1 vs. Lions 0-2

Well, the Redskins about as little as possible to beat a pathetic Rams team last week. Lucky for them, they get to play the one team that's even worse the Detroit Lions

The Lions are only 14 games away from being the first team to have two straight 0-16 seasons. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. Point being, the Redskins could be one of the most uninspiring 2-1 teams in NFL history after this weekend is over.

Broncos 2-0 vs. Raiders 1-1

I'm not sold on either of these teams. The Broncos 2-0 looks okay on the outside. However, those wins came against the Bengals and Browns. Also, with the train wreck circus revolving Brandon Marshall's legal troubles, the fact that Kyle Orton is their quarterback and whatever controversy Josh McDaniels finds himself in between now and Sunday, I don't see the Broncos winning ways holding up the rest of the season. (But they'll get to 3-0 before that happens)

Fortunately for the Broncos, they are playing the one team that has an even bigger circus surrounding their team. So the Raiders pulled out a win against the Chiefs, the Raiders team still looked like a train wreck even in this rare instance where they managed to not lose. I just can't take any team seriously that involves head coaches punching assistants, Al Davis involved in any capacity (let alone as owner) and JaMarcus Russell as a starting quarterback.

Falcons 2-0 vs. Patriots 1-1

So far, the Falcons strong 2008 seems to be legit. The NFC South is braced for an exciting 1-2 race between Atlanta and New Orleans.

The Patriots are coming off a loss to the Jets. They seem to have lost the mojo that they've had for most of the decade. They're one crazy comeback away from being in an 0-2 hole. Still, they are team that is not to be taken lightly. Tom Brady may have been injured all of '08 but he still needs to be taken seriously in opposing teams game plans. Probably one of the more intriguing match ups of the week.

Seahawks 1-1 vs. Bears 1-1

The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss to divisional rival San Francisco. Considering how mediocre the NFC West has been in recent years, it shouldn't be too hard to make up this early deficit.

The Bears seem to be pretty tough to figure out. Are they the sloppy team that played in week 1 or are they the team that's able to pull out a win against the defending champion Steelers? Well, they're playing another team that hasn't figured out whether they will be good or bad this year so this game is unlikely to reveal the answer, regardless of what happens.

Texans 1-1 vs. Jaguars 0-2

Still not sold on the Texans, especially with Steve Slaton off to a good start. Still, they have a pretty easy opponent in the Jags so they still have some time to get things together enough to contend for their first playoff bid.

The Jaguars.....look to be getting worse......absolutely nothing about this team inspires me.

Baseball Weekend Preview

The second to last weekend of regular season baseball is upon us. The pennant races are not as thrilling as usual but there's still a glimmer of hope that if Detroit or Colorado struggles an entertaining week could still happen. As always, the games are ranked from 1 to 5 based on how interesting I find the series.

Red Sox vs. Yankees =1
FRI-TBS, SAT-FOX, SUN-ESPN
Lester vs. Chamberlain
Matsuzaka vs. Sabathia
Byrd vs. Pettite

There are 28 other teams that play major league baseball but these two are the only ones to get slobbering obsessive coverage from the national media. If a playoff series was at stake I could see having all 3 games on national TV but in reality this series is a play-off tune up for both teams. The Yankees have a pretty healthy lead in the AL East and the Red Sox have the wild-card more or less locked up.

Still, there are a few things to watch for this weekend. First, OMG Joba Chamberlain is starting. OMG the Joba Rules....lets see how bad we can mishandle Joba Chamberlain and how much hype we can give an average pitcher who had two really good months...back in '07. This is the real life equivalent of that South Park episode where it's revealed they build up stars at a young age only to watch them self-destruct (Britney Spears/Miley Cyrus).

Second, Can Dice-K bounce back from a bad year and be a factor in the playoffs? He's pitched better in his first two starts back. How he does against the Yankees will go a long way to determine this.

Third, will C.C. Sabathia pitch strong and strengthen his grip for the battle of who's going to finish 2nd in the Cy Young voting to Zack Greinke?

Cubs vs. Giants =3
Sat-FOX Gorzelanny vs. Zito

The Cubs playoff hopes are more or less done. However, they do have a chance to play spoiler and bring the Giants down with them. The Giants have exceeded preseason expectations all year and still have a slim hope at the wild card despite having a horribly inept offense (except for Pablo Sandoval).

The main reason to watch this one is to see if Zito can keep his hot streak alive. After signing a massive contract for the Giants, he has performed significantly worse than the contract given to him. This year he's experienced a resurgence as well and a big start from Zito would do a lot to keep the pressure on the Rockies.

Cardinals vs. Rockies = 3.5
Sat-MLB Network
Wainwright vs. Jimenez

Probably the best series of the weekend. For the Cardinals, this series serves as a play-off tune up as they've long since left the rest of the NL Central in the dust. That doesn't mean they're going to take it easy on the Rockies as they co-ace Adam Wainwright.

For the Rockies, they need to play well in this series to maintain their lead in the wild card race and to seal off their playoff hopes. The Rockies have their own developing ace, Ubaldo Jimenez taking the hill on Saturday.

In other words, expect a really good pitchers duel in this game. Also, as much as I hate to admit...the Cardinals playing well this weekend would be good for MLB overall as it would increase the chance of a thrilling end of season showdown between the Rockies, Giants and Braves.


Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Sucessful Non-BCS Schools are NOT bad for college football

I'm not sure what the best way to put it lightly is, but this article is THE worst sports article I have read in at least a couple of months.

To me, it seems like the writer (David Whitley) is trying to become the Billy Packer of college football (in other words, be heavily biased towards BCS conferences and never giving any of the non-BCS conferences credit for anything and trying to sabotage their credibility)

The entire article is basically a smear campaign on all of the elite college football conferences that have the misfortune of not being in one of the 6 BCS conferences that control the money. The first three paragraphs alone are enough to make the blood boil a little bit.

Unless the NCAA takes the win away, Bobby Bowdenjust did college football a big favor. His Florida Stateteam beat Brigham Young, knocking out a pretender to the throne.

Excuse me, who are you to speak for College Football? Having a non-traditional football team contend for a title would not hurt College Football. It would only make it stronger. It would give hope to fan bases outside the major conferences. It would inspire fans that in any given year...if they have one of those dream seasons...they could perhaps win a championship. BYU even won a title in the 80s and college football hasn't been any better or worse for it.

Also, BYU a pretender? Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't they beat one of the elite programs in Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago?

Then Oregon beat fellow pretender Utah. Now if somebody could dump Boise State, we'll all have a merry Christmas.

Utah as a pretender? The same Utah team that's 2-0 in BCS bowl games this decade? The same Utah team that was the only team to go undefeated last year and destroy a strong Alabama team in their bowl game. The same Utah team that got robbed of playing in the title game for playing in the wrong conference?

That's not likely because the Broncos have already gone unbeaten in their one-game season. It's all over but the routing of San Jose State, Idaho, UC Davis, UC Chula Vista and UC Schwarzenegger.

I will concede that Boise State doesn't play in the strongest conference. That being said, they still have to execute on the field, play the games. While those teams are not setting the college football world on fire, it's guaranteed that their opponents are going to bring their A-games against Boise State and the Boise State will still have to work for their wins.

And to infer that the success of the small guys is bad for College Football, correct me if i'm wrong but didn't Boise State give us one of the most entertaining bowl games when they beat Oklahoma in '07. I guarantee you an overtime game like that would not generate the same buzz if it was one of your standard BCS conference 10-2 team such as Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, or whatever happens to pass for a Big East or ACC Champion in that given year.

On a side note, how dare you slam the fine UC System (which I am a product of) and make the point of slamming UCD by listing a couple of made up UC names. I'll be the first to admit my alma matter is not what you'd call a football juggernaut. However, if your gonna slam UC Davis at least put them next to an actual UC School. I'll even list a few examples you can use next time to save you 20 seconds of your time (UC Santa Cruz, UC Merced, UC Santa Barbara and UC Riverside).

I'd have a lot more respect for Boise State if it played a real schedule. More importantly, the BCS would have a lot more respect if the Broncos had to get up for more than one game a year.

Come on, Boise State is not the first top-25 team nor the last top-25 program to schedule non-conference cupcakes (this weekend). Boise State has Bowling Green on the schedule this weekend. Granted Bowling Green is not what you would call an elite program but it's no worse than scheduling Louisiana-Lafayette (Nebraska...cough...cough..), Charleston Southern (cough...Florida..cough) or Florida International (Alabama....cough)....Point being, where's the outrage of the elite programs scheduling teams that are inferior to them.

Sure, Boise State beat Oklahoma in a thrilling Fiesta Bowl and Utah thumped Alabama in last year's Sugar Bowl. Nobody's saying the best from the Mountain West and WAC can't beat the best from the SEC and Big 12.

Then how come your so reluctant to let these teams prove themselves on College Football's biggest stage? Seriously, last year in the MWC, there were 3 teams finishing in the top-16. On the contrary, the best the ACC could give us is a 3-loss Cincinnati team and a 4-loss Virginia Tech team. While the WAC is basically the Boise State show, (how they get slammed for this while Florida State's got a free pass for being THE ACC in the 90s is beyond me).

Well that's enough ranting and raving for one night. I can't wait to see Boise State, TCU and/or Houston school Ohio State in a BCS bowl game.



Brewers-Phils Preview

Well, the Brewers were unable to pass the Cubs for second and to crack .500. If nothing else, the Brewers were able to salvage a game and not get swept at home by the Cubs. This weekend, the Brewers play a team that's tuning up for the preseason (Phillies) in a rematch of last year's NLDS. Unlike the Phils, the Brewers are definitely not making a return trip to the post-season as they are mathematically eliminated.

If nothing else, there's no way this series could go any worse than the disastrous 4 game set against the Phils last September that basically cost Ned Yost his job.

Brewers 75-77 vs. Phillies 88-62

Thursday
Happ 10-4 2.77 era 155 ERA+ vs. Suppan 7-10 4.76 era 89 ERA+

Definitely a one-sided pitching match-up in favor of the Phils. J.A. Happ has had an excellent year and I would not be surprised to see him coast through this start. While it has come way too late and is irrelevant since these have been irrelevant games but Suppan has actually pitched well in September(there, I finally said something almost positive about Jeff Suppan.)

Friday
Lee 14-11 2.99 era 150 ERA+ vs. Parra 10-10 6.42 era 66 ERA+

To follow up with a future Cy-Young Award winner in J.A Happ, the Phils follow up with Cliff Lee. Lee has pretty much played the role of this year's Sabathia to a T (left-handed Cy Young Award winner from the previous year, starts solid for an Indians team going nowhere, gets shipped to the National League and becomes a factor in the pennant race)

The Brewers counter with Manny Parra who has by all conceivable measurements underachieved this year. He has too much talent to pitch this bad the rest of his career. I'm pretty sure he'll get it together and at least by a solid 2/3 starter, I just hope it's for the Brewers and not someone else.

Saturday
Martinez 5-1 3.32 era 130 ERA+ vs. Looper 13-7 5.12 era 82 ERA+

If Lee and Happ aren't enough, the Brewers are the next stop on the Pedro Martinez comeback tour. He's pitched and held up a lot better than I expected him to. He could push the Phils over the top for another title (assuming Brad Lidge doesn't single-handedly pitch this team out of it)

The Brewers follow up with Braden Looper. The only reason to watch Looper pitch is to see how many more homers he can give up. Headed into this start, the total is at 37, which is good for a tie for 47th all time.

Sunday
TBD vs. Bush 5-8 6.22 era 68 ERA+

With the arsenal of pitchers the Phillies are bringing out in the first three games, does it really matter who starts Sunday? Phils are cruising to the NL East title, Brewers are coasting to a 3rd place finish and David Bush's disastrous season gets another footnote added to it.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Random Thoughts Regarding Cecil Cooper's Firing

Even though i'm watching the Monday Night game between the Colts and Dolphins ( a surprisingly good one at that)...my thoughts are more baseball centric.....mostly centered around the end of the Cecil Cooper era in Houston

Well it's definitely not been the best week to be Cecil Cooper. He leads the Astros into Brew Town last weekend, sees his team get swept and likely relegated to 4th place for the year. In the process, he watches Prince Fielder break his single-season team RBI record while he watches from the visitors bench. At this point he must be thinking how can it get any worse.......then he gets fired.....well that's baseball. The team's he managed in Houston were about as average as you could possibly get with Cooper finishing at a 171-170 record.

My most vivid (and nerve-racking) memory of the Cecil Cooper Astros came while the Brewers were chasing the wild card last year. I remember that they weren't even in the playoff discussion for much of the season. Around the same time that the Brewers and Mets were battling to see who could choke worse down the stretch....the Astros starting playing out of their mind winning games left and right getting to within a game or 2 of the wild card. I specifically remember at some point around mid-September where I was thinking to myself that the Astros scared me and had a sinking feeling they were pull a stunt similar to what the Rockies did in '07.

However, fate had other things in store for the Wild Card. Hurricane Ike hits Houston...they have to play a home game at Miller Park and get no-hit by Carlos Zambrano, the Astros go quietly into the night and I actually see the Brewers make it into the post-season.

While the Astros didn't quite pull off a run like that in '09 (in all fairness, one could argue that they've overachieved with what they have to even win 70 this year)...point being I wouldn't be surprised if Cooper gets another chance to next year (possibly in Milwaukee........it's not that Macha is a bad manager and this lost season can be entirely blamed on him......but I just get the gut feeling that he's not gonna be brought back).....whatever may happen hopefully all works out with Cecil Cooper.

To replace him (at least on an interim basis) is ex-player Dave Clark. I vaguely remember his playing career....wasn't as good as a player as Cecil Cooper but he did manage to stick around for about 12 years.

To put his playing career in context the two most similar active players to him are Wes Helms and Jason Michaels (who ironically will be playing for the Dave Clark Astros)

Don't know too much about Clark as a manager but for at least the next 13 games it won't make much of an impact as they (along with every other NL Central team not in St. Louis ain't playing any meaningful ball until 2010.

Brewers-Cubs Preview: The Quest for .500 (and second place)

Well, the Brewers manhandled the Astros for last-weekends battle of .500 and have a series with the Cubs coming up. While this series has absolutely no playoff implications, the Brewers have a chance to get back to or over .500 and if they sweep the Cubs they will pass them to get up to second place.

Brewers 74-75 vs. Cubs 76-72


Monday:
Gorzelanny 5-2 5.29 era 81 ERA+ vs. Looper 13-6 4.89 era 86 ERA+

The Brewers first chance to get back to .500. Again, this is strictly a match-up for pride and to at least salvage a .500 or better record out of the season. Also, it's another chance to see if Braden Looper can creep his way up the single-season leader board for home runs allowed. Coming into this start he has allowed 35 which is good enough to be tied for 79th all time.

Tuesday
Wells 10-9 3.06 era 143 ERA+ vs. Bush 5-7 5.88 era 71 ERA+

Out of the three games this series, the Brewers probably have the worst chance in this one. Bush hasn't exactly had a great year and I doubt that Wells is going to have a second consecutive bad start.

Wednesday
Lilly 12-8 3.02 era 145 ERA+ vs. Narveson 1-0 4.22 era 100 ERA+

This game is another audition for Chris Narveson to see how well he holds up as a starter as he's pretty much playing for a job in the 2010 rotation. He pitched well against Houston Friday night. So far, he's done a relatively decent job. If he can keep pitching well consistently and stretch out longer than 5 innings the Brewers may have a surprise player on their hands for 2010.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

The College Football Review: Bad Day For Mid-Majors

Well, a third week of college football is in the books. Didn't seem as exciting as the first two weeks, but it did serve the purpose of thinning out the ranks of the unbeaten It still raises some interesting questions such as

Does USC's loss to Washington take them out of the national title chase?

If it were just about any other school, yes. While USC won't be in the discussion (for now)....once the ranks of the undefeated thins out to 2 or less (and assuming USC wins the rest of their games) we will be hearing about them again (rolls eyes).....they've become the New York Yankees of college football and since they get the benefit of a doubt that has evaded undefeated teams of the past such as Boise State/Hawaii/Utah, etc....we will be hearing about them more come November

I still hold firm on my statement that the Mountain West is a great football conference but they didn't help their case yesterday.

Between Utah losing on the road to an Oregon team that showed signs of fight during the game and NOT after the game and BYU getting upset and manhandled at home by Florida St., it looks like there is a void to fill in the BCS party-crasher/going undefeated and getting shut out of the title game slot filled by Utah last year.

Despite yesterday, BYU and Utah are still great teams that will at least be Top 25 but their status as non-BCS schools leaves them zero margin for error. It looks like TCU is the conference's last hope of being the Mountain West school to run the table, be deserving at a national title shot only to be snubbed in favor of a 1 (or 2 loss) team.

All sarcasm aside, yesterday should NOT be an excuse for the Mountain West to be written off. The two teams just didn't do enough to win on their games but they will be back with a vengeance for the rest of the season.

Who becomes the non-BCS darling now?

As I mentioned in the last paragraph, TCU is the last undefeated elite standing in the Mountain West. They were in the mix last year finished in the top-10 but were atrociously relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl against an equally deserving Boise State Team.

So that leaves us with three non-BCS options.. a) Boise State--the hook and ladder darlings of the 2006 season--the only team to play on blue turf that looks extra creepy on HD---and most importantly coached by UC Davis alum Chris Petersen---they look to have the best chance to run the table but the weakness of the WAC works against them

b)TCU--If they can run the gauntlet of their MWC schedule they're probably the best hope or

c)Houston--Can they overcome most people not knowing about them to crash the party. Unlike Boise State and TCU who have gotten themselves high profile wins and have national profiles higher than the conference they play in, Houston hasn't been prominent in the national scene since the early 1990s.

However, they do have an impressive high profile win (AT Oklahoma State) and an explosive offense that should run circles around their Conference USA Schedule. While Conference USA will hurt Houston in the strength of schedule, if they're able to run up the score enough they could raise their profile quickly within the next couple months.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Brewers-Astros Series Preview: Battle for third Part III:

Well, after a rough start to the series that Wrigley....the Brewers got their act together enough to salvage a tie with their series against the Cubs. This Weekend, they return home to Miller Park and take on an Astros team that has nothing to play for other than pride in'09.

These teams have gone traded off between 3rd and 4th in the NL Central for the last month and this series will be crucial in determining who has the best shot at this very unprestigious spot in the standings. On the bright side, the 2010 schedule was released this week so both of these teams can look forward to maybe contending....maybe not contending once this lost season is completed

Brewers 71-75 vs. Astros 70-76

Friday
Norris 5-3 5.44 era 77 ERA+ vs. Narveson 1-0 4.67 era 90 ERA+

The Astros start rookie Bud Norris who has struggled since a promising first couple of starts. With his numbers he's unlikely to be Rookie of the Year. In other words, Norris pretty much has pride and a starting pitching gig for next year to pitch for.

The Brewers start Chris Narveson. He's gone back and forth between Milwaukee and Nashville this year. This is his second start of the season. While this game is meaningless in the scope of MLB, it is meaningful for Narveson as it's unclear whether or not he'll get another chance as a starter if he doesn't pitch well down the stretch.

Saturday
Moehler 8-10 5.01 era 83 ERA+ vs. Suppan 6-10 4.87 era 86 ERA+

An uninspring battle between a couple uninspiring pitchers. How Moehler is in a MLB starting rotation is beyond me and Jeff Suppan....i've mentioned how I feel about Suppan enough times that it's become equivalent to beating a dead horse so i'll move on.

Sunday
Paulino 2-9 6.06 era 69 ERA+ vs. TBD

Paulino versus whoever the Brewers trot out to start....this makes Moehler v. Suppan look like a pitchers duel. Really, does it matter, the Brewers haven't played well on Sundays this year and the game overlaps with the Packers game.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Week 2 NFL Preview --- It's Always Sunny at Cheddar's Sports Blog

I'm chillin at home right now watching Grandma's Boy on FX, and sitting in anticipation for the season premier of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (as of this writing about 90 minutes away.

But that's then and this is now. Now is the time to preview some of the week 2 action in the NFL.

Packers 1-0 vs. Bengals 0-1

Two teams who had opposite endings to Sunday's game. The Packers rallied late to take the lead and pull off a massively epic victory over the Bears in front of a national TV audience. Their defense looked better, played better (with the help of Jay Cutler) and Aaron Rodgers took another step towards becoming an elite QB and quickly making his predecessor be nothing more than a distant memory.

The Bengals did the one thing they've done well in the last 20 years, find new ways to lose a games. Losing on an 87-yard tipped pass in the final seconds.......brutal times 10.

Patriots 1-0 vs. Jets 1-0

An early battle for AFC East Supremacy. The Patriots pulled a victory straight out of nowhere coming back in the final minutes against the TO-infested Bills.

The Jets had a strong week 1 in Mark Sanchez' NFL Debut. Whether Sanchez can keep playing well throughout his rookie season still remains to be seen but if nothing else he gives the Jets hope for the future (if not '09) and unlike his predecessor has never appeared in a Sears commercial.

Colts 1-0 vs. Dolphins 0-1

The Colts squeezed out a close win against a pretty bad Jaguars squad in Week 1.

The Dolphins did not start their follow-up to their break out season as strong as they hoped. I'm still holding out hope that they'll go outside the box and bust out a triple-option offense.

Seahawks 1-0 vs. 49ers 1-0

An early battle for supremacy in a weak NFC West. The Seahawks started out the Jim L. Mora era strong with a win over some CFL team in St. Louis called the Rams. According to cool-standing they have a 51.3 % chance to make the playoffs. You know what this means, a 48.7% chance of a sequel following up his father's Playoffs?!!!! rant.

The 49ers, coming off a strong finish after the hiring of Mike Singletary and the benching of ex-Aggie J.T. O'Sullivan. Pulled out a good road win against the defending Super Bowl runner-up Cardinals. While Hill hasn't gotten too much respect/publicity/legitimacy as an NFL Quarterback all he's done is quietly put up a 90+ passer rating and throw 2 TDs for every INT. Hill is a breakout year ready to happen.

Falcons 1-0 vs. Panthers 0-1

The Falcons didn't play out of their minds last week but they did more than enough to win. I have a gut feeling that regardless of how good or bad they are on Sunday they'll be 2-0 when the weekend is over.

The Panthers have Jack Delhomme who looks to be getting progressively worse with every start he makes. After single-handedly throwing the Panthers out of the playoffs last year, he started this season by pulling a Jay Cutler and throwing 4 picks, leading the Panthers to get blown out by the Eagles.

Broncos 1-0 vs. Browns 0-1

The Kyle Orton led Broncos offense was downright terrible for 59 minutes on Sunday but since they were playing the Bengals and got incredibly lucky on one play, they did well in the one place that counts, the standings. The Broncos get another cupcake in the Browns on Sunday. Even without Jay Cutler and the yet to be determined genius/idiocy of Josh McDaniels, the Broncos may have be 2-o before having to play a halfway decent team.

The Browns, well they are the Browns. What's with these teams from Ohio and being totally terrible at the NFL. It was pretty sad how they got owned by Adrian Peterson, well at least in this game they'll only get moderately embarrassed.

Redskins 0-1 vs. Rams 0-1

The Redskins look destined to not make the playoffs again....they had an uninspiring game against the Giants but at least they get an even worse team in the Rams to play on Sunday. Best case for the Redskins is that they gain more confidence by playing inept competition and can gain enough confidence to play over their heads for at least part of the season.

The Rams........brutal team....if they're not careful they may join the 08 Lions as the second 0-16 team in history.


Baseball For the Weekend: These Races Need to be Closer

So, Baseball is coming down the stretch run, another weekend closer until we can talk about the Playoffs?!!....Also, with the weekend is another batch of games....as always games are ranked on a scale of 1-5.

Angels vs. Rangers =4
SAT-MLB Newtwork (Weaver) vs. (Feldman)
Sun-TBS (Lackey) vs. Holland)

Well this is he Rangers last chance to steal the AL West from the Angels. They've had a solid year to build on in 2009 and seem to have found a formula for the next few years (provided they're able to keep Maddux as their pitching coach). However, when it comes to their 2009 Playoff hopes, they need to sweep the Angels to keep themselves in contention. If this don't happen the Rangers playoff hopes are most likely put on hold for another year.

The Angels, are in a much better position as they sport a comfortable 6 game lead as of this writing (thursday morning). They've gone through a lot of adversity this year, have had struggles in the starting rotation (though Lackey and Weaver are their two starters who have pitched well)..and have benefited from Kendry Morales' breakout year.

The Rangers start one pitcher having a good year (Feldman) the value of which is inflated by his 16 wins and one pitcher having a terrible year (Holland). They counter Morales in the breakout year department with ex-Brewer prospect Nelson Cruz.

Giants vs. Dodgers =4.5

(Penny) vs. (Billingsley) SAT-FOX

The Giants/Dodgers games have a tendency to be entertaining in September regardless of their places in the standings. They have a tendency to play spoiler to each other which is expected out of bitter in-state rivals.

This year it's the Giants who are fighting for their playoff lives after falling 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race and being shut out by Jorge de la Rosa, a pitcher who was so bad when he played for the Brewers that he got exiled to the Royals for Tony Graffanino. Brad Penny had an excellent start against these same Dodgers on Sunday and they need him to repeat that performance to keep their fading playoff hopes alive.

The Dodgers have the best of both worlds. They are likely playoff bound as they have a comfortable 5 game lead in the NL West AND they get a chance to spoil the Giants playoff hopes.

Either way, expect an intense back and forth game with a slight chance of this game being talked about years later.

Twins vs. Tigers =4
(Pavano vs. Verlander) Sat-FOX

Well, it's do or die time for the Twins. They have managed to get themselves within 4 1/2 games of the Tigers and a weekend sweep would be the first step towards wiping out 140 or so games of mediocrity and sneak into the playoffs.

The Twins start Carl Pavano in this one. Despite his injury/mediocrity laden past, he has a chance at redemption in Minnesota. When the Twins traded for him, I argued that the trade was unlikely to make an impact on the race. So far that argument has been weakened as Pavano has pitched reasonably well in Minnesota 3-3 3.75 era 111 ERA+. A strong start by Pavano here as the chance to kill my original argument and make me look like an idiot. Still, I wouldn't mind if this happens since this season needs an epic pennant race (or two) and the Twins playing well this weekend would be a first step towards that.

The Tigers counter with ace Justin Verlander who takes the hill in an attempt to shut down the Twins' said playoff hopes. Also, Verlander has a chance to increase his league lead in Strikeouts and Strikeouts/9IP.

Cubs vs. Cardinals =2
(Dempster vs. Smoltz)=Sat-FOX
(Zambrano vs. Carpenter)= Sun ESPN

In most years a September, Cubs/Cardinals match-up would be more compelling as these two teams are fighting for a playoff spot more often than not.

However, 2009 is a whole different beast as the Cardinals have left the rest of the NL Central in the dust, thus making this series less compelling.

The Cubs only post-season hope is if the Rockies and Giants BOTH choke and stop winning games all-together. That's unlikely to happen so for the Cubs the only motivation is playing for pride while for the Cardinals this series will be a likely playoff tune-up.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Brewers-Cubs Preview

Well, they may have not been played spoiler yet but the Brewers managed to come together and put together a well-played series getting a 3-game sweep over the D-Backs. The Brewers go into Wrigley Field to play a 4-game set with the Cubs. As late as July, I was expecting this series to have massive playoff implications and to be more intense than usual. However, with both the Brewers and the Cubs being left behind by the Cardinals, there isn't too much to play for other than pride

Brewers 69-74 vs. Cubs 74-68

Alright so, I didn't get the preview done in time for the beginning of the series.....Cubs won tonight's game 2-0....don't have too much more to say about the rest of the series....but here it goes


Tuesday

Gallardo 12-11 3.59 era 117 ERA+ vs. Zambrano 8-6 3.77 era 116 ERA+

The only game the rest of the series where the Brewers have announced their starter. Gallardo has had an excellent season, he's stayed healthy.....and I can't wait to see how much better he is in 2010. Zambrano starts for the Cubs....he's had a decent season but not well enough to justify how much money he's gettin paid

Wednesday

TBD vs. Harden 9-8 4.04 era 108 ERA+

Harden has had an uninspiring season. The Brewers roughed him up pretty well on the 4th of July (you know way back before both teams playoff hopes were crushed)......The only bright spot in an otherwise miserable 4 game series a couple weeks ago.

Thursday

TBD vs. Wells 10-8 2.96 148 ERA+

The Brewers go up against Randy Wells who has bucked the general trend of both of these teams and overacheiving this year. He's been one of the leagues better kept secrets.........................


Sorta stretching on other things to discuss on this series......between TBD making a couple starts and still glowing over the Packers beating the Bears in the last minute on national tv.........

College Football: Houston, Big 11and other observations

Well, a second week of college football action is in the books and now it's time to reflect on the state of College Football

What happened to Oklahoma St.?

Well, helping their national championship hopes is NOT amongst these answers. In all fairness, the Ok St.-Houston game was more entertaining than the 45-35 final score indicated. Oklahoma State put up their fair share of points on the scoreboard but did not have what it takes on defense to stop a high octane Houston offense.

While, if they were a team like Florida, Oklahoma, or USC they could probably get away with losing a game early and still have national title hopes. However, with they twisted way college football decides their championship, Oklahoma St. doesn't have a large enough pedigree to get all the way back to the top.

Well, Oklahoma St. was on the Cover of SI this week, you know what this means

That being more insufferable banter from SI Cover curses conspiracy theorists. I hope this gets past most of these because even if there was such a thing as the curse, they would have lost their first game to Georgia (they were on the cover last month) and also the way Case Keenum was playing, they would have beaten anyone. Also, giving up 2 4th quarter touchdowns on 4th and goal means your defense is terrible and has nothing to do with curses.

Speaking of Houston and Case Keenum, where does it put them for the rest of the year?

Obviouslly, Houston has turned at least a few heads as they made it into the AP top 25 for the first time since 1991. If Houston can play some better D, they could get themselves ranked high enough to sneak into a BCS bowl. Going on the road to Oklahoma State is definitely much more challenging than anything they'll face in Confrence USA, if they can go into T.Boone Pickens Stadium and take care of business, I would be suprised if they lost another regular season game.

Case Keenum for Heisman?

Well it's not like Keenum putting up big numbers is that big of a suprise (he had 5000+ yards and 44 touchdowns last year)

However, that was done on a decent, but fairly annonomous team. This year, with a nationally ranked and more prominent team, if Keenum continues to put up these video-game type numbers.....his profile and Heisman hopes could get a serious (and deserved) boost.

So Michigan beat Notre Dame yesterday, wake me when they beat someone good?

At looks like Michigan is on the right track after a thrilling win over Notre Dame (after a disastarous 2008)..but let's put things in perspective.....this was Notre Dame. While this would have been an impressive win 20 years ago, Notre Dame has turned into a joke of a football program that gets a disproportionate amount of media attention for acheving the most menial of tasks (i.e. beating Nevada).

It's always a good thing when Wisconsin beats a team from California?

While i'm realistically not too high on Wisconsin's hopes this year, i'm glad they were able to take care of business against Fresno State. After last year's near-loss to Cal Poly, it was good to see a victory pulled out in double-OT. Admittedly, I didn't get a chance to start watching until the 4th quarter but I liked the resilience that they showed after Fresno State tied with a field goal with just seconds left.

Fresno State and Wisconsin have developed a pretty good rivalry over the years, the games are usually close and entertaining and this year was no exception.

OMG....An elite Big 11 team lost to an elite team from another conference......i'm so shocked....oh wait no i'm not

I will give Ohio State credit for at least not getting blown out. On the negative side, they did have a lead in the final minutes of the 4th quarter which they blew when USC methodically drove down the field with Freshman QB Matt Barkley to prove for the millionth time that the elite team from other conferences is superior to the elite teams from the Big 11

When will UCD break into the Win Column?

Soon, hopefully. They at least got onto the scoreboard and scored a touchdown. But blowing a 10-point lead at home to Montana, no bueno.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Week 1 NFL Preview---Lots of Questions--Too Early For Answers

Well, the 2009 NFL Season is upon us and it is time to preview some (but not all) of the week 1 games. The these previews are going to work is that the Packers get previewed first, followed by whichever games involve players on my fantasy football team (lame but whatever.....I do what I want)


Packers vs. Bears

I wouldn't want the NFL season to start any other way. I've been looking forward to this game since the schedules were released. Packers vs. Bears games are always intense and anything can happen regardless of where these teams are in the standings.

Also, this game will give us a glimpse of who gets first dibs on NFC North supremacy. It will also be the first game (of likely many) matching up Aaron Rodgers against Jay Cutler. For the Packers, we will begin to see how Aaron Rodgers follows up on his excellent first season as a starter. Also, it will be interesting to see if their defense improves from last year or if it's going to still be terrible.

For the Bears, is Jay Cutler their answer? Will he be the strong quarterback the Bears have been seeking since, forever? How will his play affect the balance of power in the NFC North?

Colts vs. Jaguars

How will the Colts play in Jim Caldwell's coaching debut? Will they still be the contenders they have been for the better part of the decade? Also, I am curious to see what number is higher....the amount of commercials starring Peyton Manning that are shown tomorrow or the number of passing yards he has.

The Jaguars are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2008. They looked to be on the cusp after a strong 2007, but it looks like they could just as easily slip back into mediocrity for a few years.

Falcons vs. Dolphins

The two most surprising teams of 2008 face off against each-other in this match-up. Will the Falcons and Matt Ryan follow up on a strong season or do they regress back into a non-playoff team?

For the Dolphins, does Chad Pennington have another career year and if not how much impact will it have on the Dolphins? Considering that they popularized the WildCat offense last year, what will the Dolphins do in 2009 that half of the league will inevitable rip off? Personally, i'd be cool with them bringing the triple-option offense back in style.

Broncos vs. Bengals

Will Brandon Marshall justify all his off-field arrests, shenanigans, etc. by producing on the field. How many more times does he need to get arrested to either a) get suspended or b) traded to the Bengals.

For the Bengals......will Carson Palmer be a factor for the Bengals and will they be relevant anytime soon? or ever?

Texans vs. Jets

Will the Texans make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history? Will Steve Slaton have the monster/epic season that I think he will have?

For the Jets, how do they recover from the mess that Mangini and that old guy from the wrangler commercials left behind? Will Mark Sanchez be the franchise quarterback that they hope/think that they are getting? Will the Jets ever get past their apparent 9-win glass ceiling?

Redskins vs. Giants

Will the Redskins on-field production match the ridiculous amounts of money spent on the team? How will the Giants be affected by the loss of Plaxico Burress? Will the Giants still be one of the elite teams in the NFC?

Seahawks vs. Rams

How will the NFL be without Mike Holmgren being a head coach? While he isn't THE Jim Mora, I like that there is A Jim Mora with an NFL head coaching job? This begs the question of how long until Jim L. Mora provides the world with a quote that can be repeated ad-naseum and never get old? On second thought, there is NO way to top both Diddly Poo AND Playoffs?!!.

For the Rams, outside of going 0-16 and/or hiring Matt Millen as a GM....there's probably no way this team can get any worse than they were in 2008....

Bills vs. Patriots

Will T.O. be the difference for the Bills and help them make the playoffs for the first time in years? How long before the team-cancer side of T.O. pops up and starts trashing Trent Edwards publicly?

For the Pats...it's a given they'll get back to the playoffs. The main question with them is whether Tom Brady will be able to replicate his record setting 2007 season? Also, will he get the Pats back to the Super Bowl?

Well as you can see, there are a lot of unanswered questions as we head into Week 1 of the NFL season. Some of them may get answered tomorrow. Most of them will probably go unresolved for awhile. This doesn't include yearly factors such as what teams will come out of nowhere to either play much better or worse. Either way this season should be a fun ride.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Javier Vasquez > Mediocre (Well at least in 2009)

Alright, So I stumbled across an article on mlbnotebook.com today that discusses the success of some of Braves starting pitchers Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens.

While the majority of the article was spot on, there was a small part regarding Javier Vasquez that would have been true in the past, but doesn't really reflect how he's pitched in 2009.

I 've already commented on Lowe not being the ace Atlanta hoped he would be. Lowe hasn't done much since then to alter that opinion. He's been up and down this season when Atlanta hoped he'd be up all season. Javier Vazquez has been equally mediocre this season, but with a better ERA. Despite the disappointment found in the less than ace-like performances of Lowe and Vazquez, two new aces are emerging for the Braves


First off, the article is accurate in that Lowe has been a disappointment. Second, while Vasquez has had many seasons where the assessment of him as a mediocre pitcher would be accurate, 2009 has not been one of those years. When you break it down by the numbers, Vasquez has performed either the same or better than Hanson and Jurrgens in several statistical areas.


ERA+

Hanson-147
Jurrgens-142
Vasquez-136

So, Vasquez ranks last out of the three in this. Still, his performance is still in the same ball park as Hanson and Jurrgens. Still, within the context of the rest of the league, his era is 36% above league average. Vasquez is definitely not guilty of mediocrity in this aspect.

Next, there's the part where Vasquez has pitched well enough to be in the top 10 in several pitching metrics this year

WHIP--4th 1.062

When the only pitchers giving up less base runners per inning are Haren, Carpenter and Lincecum, you aren't just better than mediocre, you are having a very excellent season. Alright so Vasquez ain't headed towards Cooperstown with his overall body of work...but placed in the context of 2009 he'd be more likely to get Cy Young consideration than to be placed with the mediocre tag.

Walks/9 IP-1.911 -5th
Strikeouts/9 IP-9.940-4th
Strikeouts-208-2nd
Strikeouts/Base On Balls-5.2-2nd

For this year (at least) Vasquez has displayed a rare combination of not walking very many people while racking up a high amount of strikeouts. Considering that only 6 pitchers (including Vasquez) have even managed to strike out 4 for every 1 that they walk.......Vasquez should be getting more attention for having a great season.

In all fairness, Vasquez success this season has gone highly under the radar. It took me a couple of months to realize that he had the chance to have a season like this. I didn't really catch on to him being in the leader board for strikeouts until somewhere around the beginning of June.

If Vasquez would have either a) gotten more run support (and wins) or b) playing for a playoff bound team........he would be getting at least some Cy Young attention that's currently being split between the Cards and Giants 1-2 combos.