The Breakthrough

I was going to post on the NFL today but since it was turning into a semi-coherent rant about me not liking the fact that the Packers gave Tampa their first win.....I decided to go another route.

I was flipping through the channels earlier today and ESPN Classic was replaying the 1983 Sugar Bowl between Penn State and Georgia which is significant because it was the first national championship that Joe Paterno won.

It got me to thinking to which teams within the short term (10 years) are most likely to break through and win their first championship (counting the post-1936 era)....looking through this weeks AP top 25 there are a dozen teams (Cincinnati, Houston, Boise State Oregon, Iowa, Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, South Florida and Stanford) without a Division 1-A championship to their name.

This is my countdown from 12 to 1 on the likeliness for these teams to break through and win a championship sometime within the next decade.

12-Houston

Houston has been an interesting team to say the least. This is the most success they've experienced since the late 80s/early 90s run and shoot era. They have good wins against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech but much of their success this year is on the arm of Case Keenum. Its made for some interesting football (i.e. a thrilling win over Tulsa that was relegated to CBS College Sports). The reality is it will tough to maintain this high level if they can't improve their defense and have a QB as good or better than Case Keenum once he graduates.

11-Iowa

Iowa has always been one of those teams playing in the shadows of Ohio State/Penn State. They've been a program that can be penciled in for anywhere from 6-10 wins a year and be in and out of the Top 25. Iowa being in the top 5 going into this weekend seemed to be an aberration. In reality they were a few breaks away from having 3 or 4 losses already. I don't really see them breaking the ceiling.

10-Arizona

In reality, Arizona and Stanford are interchangeable in these rankings. Arizona has been on the rise since Mike Stoops took over the program but they are still a ways away from breaking through to the elite tear.

9-Stanford

They could go higher up the list depending on how far they progress under Jim Harbaugh. While Jim Harbaugh inherited a pretty bad team a few years ago, the seeds for Stanford breaking the Top 25 have been visible since their upset over USC a couple years ago. For Stanford it all depends on whether they plateau at a borderline top-25 school or whether they break through and can dethrone USC for a year or two.

8-South Florida

South Florida has come along way, considering they didn't even have a football team until 1997. They have had some brushes with success even getting as high as #2 for one week in 2007. Still, they have yet to prove to hold up this caliber of play for an entire year. At this point, October seems to be their vice. Considering they play in a Big East conference that is more concerned with basketball, they could have a shot if they run the table one year and get enough breaks.

7-Wisconsin

A classic example of a team that was able to break through from mediocre to above average but haven't experienced greatness. Barry Alvarez turned this program around and rescued them from mediocrity. The Badgers first break through came in 1993 when they won the Big Ten title and beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl. They have won a few Rose Bowls since but we're 16 years down the road and they have yet to break through.

6-Cincinnati

This year could be their best chance. That is not saying much considering they are in the Top 5 and a lot of unlikely things need to happen for them to break through. They pretty much need at least 3 teams out of Florida, Alabama, Texas and TCU to lose. One of Florida and Alabama will lose but Texas has a fairly clear path and TCU has a tough game against Utah as their major barrier.

5-Oklahoma State

Their chances looked much better earlier this year. They beat Georgia (when it meant something) got into the top 5 but slipped up against Houston a week later. Furthermore, they haven't been at full strength since Dez Bryant got suspended. Still, they have a couple things on their side. First, they play in a competitive Big 12 conference so they don't need to worry about strength of schedule concerns. Second, they have the money to breakthrough as their programs has received millions and a new stadium thanks to the donations of T.Boone Pickens. Obviously this year is a lost cause but with a higher profile and money on their side, they at have a fighting chance.

4- Utah

Utah has been trying to be the non-AQ trailblazer. They were the first to get into a BCS Bowl game. After losing Urban Meyer, they proved that this wasn't a fluke last year by getting to another BCS bowl (although they should of had a chance to play for the national title).

3-Oregon

More of a hunch on this one. They got robbed of a shot in 2001 but I think Chip Kelly is the coach to take them over the top. While they took a step back after their loss to Stanford yesterday...it was impressive how they bounced back after their horrible loss to Boise State and made a season out of it when everyone they could have easily folded. My instinct is they get over the hump with Chip Kelly.

2-Virginia Tech

While V.Tech has been slightly disappointing this year, they are a team that is in the discussion for a title (for at least a little bit). They are a fairly established team, they are competitive year in and year out....its a matter of when not if for this program

1-Boise State

I'm not sure what changes are in store for the next decade but at least one of the changes will help Boise State break the barrier. Boise State is college football's equivalent to Gonzaga in that their team profile is beyond the conference they play in. I could see anything from tweaks in the BCS......a playoff system (more of a pipe dream but come in it only works for every other sports organization) to Boise State moving up to a more competitive conference (either MWC or Pac-10)...that would silence the critics who point out to their weak strength of schedule.

Sports/Music Crossover Column: Alice In Chains

Just recently, one of my favorite bands from the 90s, Alice In Chains released their first album since the mid-90s. You all know what this means.....time for another Sports/Music Crossover column where I use songs from Alice In Chains to discuss recent developments in the sports world that I want to discuss but not necessarily devote an entire post to with that it's time to rock out

"Down In A Hole"--Winless NFL Teams Browns, Titans, Chiefs, Panthers, Buccaneers and Rams

Well these teams are down in a hole for sure. 4 weeks into the NFL season and they are yet to win a game. Some of these teams are a victim of bad luck (Titans) others are in legitimate danger of being the second 0-16 team in NFL history (Rams, Chiefs, Browns) but all have the common theme of this being a lost season. For these teams they are unlikely to be talking about playoffs and probably talking about who they can draft to turn around their fortunes in 2010.

"A Little Bitter"-- Myself after Monday's Packers-Vikings game

I can take the multiple retirements. I would have eventually forgiven the Jets stint. This is the culmination of one of the most unforgivable acts in sports. When Favre signed with the Vikings I thought to myself it's okay he's got nothing left, the Vikings will be terrible anyways....well the Vikings are 4-0 Favre schooled the Packers D...and it looks like for the second straight season one aspect of the Packers (the O-Line) is going to doom a talented team to a terrible season. On the bright side 3/4ths of the season is still left the Packers have a bye week to recover and if recent history holds up.....the interception parade will eventually begin in Minnesota.

"Lying Season"--Dez Bryant-- failure to disclose interaction with Deion Sanders

Well this officially ends Oklahoma States one chance at greatness. Dez Bryant was THE star player of an Oklahoma State team that was supposed to have its coming out party. Instead, Dez Bryant doesn't disclose/lies about meeting with Deion Sanders and he is now ineligible to play. For Oklahoma State it's back to another few decades of going 7-5 and playing meaningless bowl games two days after Christmas. On a personal note, it puts my fantasy team in flux as he was one of my best players and I have to scramble to find someone to replace his production.

"Got Me Wrong"--Philip Hughes/Yankees Bullpen

So this morning I finished my post previewing the Yankees-Twins series. In this post I gave the edge to the Twins bullpen and didn't speak too positively of the Yankees bullpen beyond Mariano Rivera. A funny thing happened, I go to the gym and the Yankees-Twins game is on, Hughes comes in the 7th inning in a 6-2 game with 2 men on Mauer on Deck facing Orlando Cabrera, they get into an epic match-up where Cabrera is fouling off pitch after pitch....and Hughes strikes out Cabrera on a 3-2 count....effectively stopping the Twins best opportunity to get back into the game.....for at least a day Hughes has proven me wrong.

"Over Now"-- MLB Regular Season

As always it was a fun ride but all things come to an end eventually. For me 2009 will be remembered for a few things. 1) MLB Networks rookie and breakout season. 2) My first extended encounter with MLB.tv.........probably one of the greatest innovations in recent memory and 3) Stunned that Braden Looper somehow led the Brewers in wins 4) Zach Greinke's amazing season.....I don't care how bad the Royals are, Greinke deserves the Cy Young Award 5) Pablo Sandoval's breakout season........it's not every year a player comes through that can go yard off of pitches that aren't even close to being strikes.....

"So Close"--Tigers/Braves

To the teams who got their playoff hopes crushed last. To the Tigers....you were up 7 games in September....even worse, your going to be mentioned in the same sentence as the '07 Mets.....OUCH.

To the Braves...you kicked it into high gear too late...you were hanging around the fringes of the race...got hot for a few weeks....the only mistake you made was not being in the NL Central where you could play .500 ball for 140 games only to get hot for the last 20 or so games.

"Again"-Trevor Hoffman

Well we were barely one day into the off-season and the Brewers wasted no time in re-signing Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman had an excellent season as a closer in '09. I can't wait to see Hoffman closing for the Brewers again in '10 as they try to bounce back from a lackluster season.

"Put You Down"--Twins over Tigers

The Tigers had things like a commanding lead in the AL Central and in the AL Central Tie-Breaker game...but with the Twins finding new ways to win on a daily basis...they were able to put down the Tigers and get into the playoffs

"No Excuses"-- University of Houston Defense

Alright so the University of Houston isn't a defensive juggernaut. They are known more for their high profile offense. Still, it is inexcusable to give up 58 points to a weak UTEP team. It would be one thing if they gave up this amount to an elite team such as Texas, Oklahoma, etc....but UTEP is not what would be considered an elite team.......i've watched them in "action" a couple times and they are not what I would call an offensive juggernaut. Thanks for trying to break the BCS-Barrier this year Houston and next year, come back with a competent Defense........In terms of Non-BCS schools.....TCU and Boise are the last hopes.

College Football (with one exception) and movies

Yesterday, I was watching Old School on tv (during/in-between college football games). It got my thinking a little bit. I was surfing the web and stumbled across Bravo's 100 Funniest Movies list which was graced by Old School's presence.. Instead of the normal College Football recap post......that's right it's time for another sports/non-sports list crossover posting.

7- Ace Ventura: Pet Detective- Penn St. Nittany Lions

After Penn St's 4th quarter melt down against Big 11 conference mate Iowa, these Nittany Lions have their BCS hopes severely wounded. It would have been one thing to lose to an elite conference team but losing to Iowa.....thank's for showing up and nurse yourselves up to better health next year.

16- Old School- Alabama

I've seen this movie many times and it never gets old. Involving starting a fraternity made up of adults who had reached their peak only to fade into adulthood for several years only to come back strong with a vengeance............. FRANK THE TANK!!!!!!

Well Alabama's football history has been the same way. They built up a strong tradition won lots of national championships (not to mention having some of the coolest helmets in college football---something about the numbers and helmets is appealing)....all was good and well until the mid-90s......they faded into irrelevance and obscurity (similar to Notre Dame).....and they looked to be every bit as irrelevant and mediocre as the "Fighting" Irish.

Then, they caught the 2 o'clock home, separated from their mediocrity and had their Mitch-A-Palooza. They hired Nick Saban (so he's not the most honest person, or a great person and he's inevitably going to leave Alabama for a higher paycheck) but he has made Alabama relevant again. He got them within minutes from a BCS title game this year and they've looked really strong this year and have a reasonable chance of winning the title this year.

20- The Jerk- LaGarrete Blount

Punching an opposing player in the head after losing to said team.....definitely Jerk-like behavior. Suspending him for the year seems to have worked out so far as they've gotten a couple of good wins against Cal and Utah since the punch and the suspension.

39-Best In Show- Virginia Tech/South Carolina/Iowa

They might not be the best teams overall, but they were the best in this week's set of College Football games as these teams all scored victories over Top-10 teams.

42-Austin Powers-Int'l man of Mystery (the exception) Bus Cook---Brett Favre---Jay Cutler

I came up with this analogy a couple weeks ago spontaneously and decided to mention it here. Bus Cook obviously is Brett Favre's agent. Cook, like Favre obviously wants to stick it to the Packers. After trying for a couple of years, they finally managed to sleaze their way to the Minnesota Vikings. Favre has become a villain, a hated rival, just embodies lots of negative traits against humanity. He is the Dr. Evil.

During the off season, another one of Cook's clients, Jay Cutler had a fit because Josh McDaniels was thinking about trading for Matt Cassell. Even though this didn't happen Cutler was still acting like a 5-year old (like Favre). Like Favre, Cutler has the same agent. Like Favre, Cutler got traded to a team that is arch-rivals with the Packers (Bears). Like Favre, Cutler has a strong arm, huge ego, acts childish, is a "gunslinger" and throws lots of interceptions. Basically, Cutler is a younger, less talented, equally childish version of Favre, I shall call him mini-me.

51-Ferris Bueller's Day Off- California

So the Cal Bears didn't literally take the day off to explore Chicago and instead played their scheduled game against Oregon. Still, with the way they played they might of well taken the day off. Thanks for showing up for the BCS contention these few weeks and we'll see you again in 2010.

75-Dumb and Dumber- Poll Voters/Ole Miss

Really, Mississippi in the top 5. A 9-win season, an upset over Florida (last year) and a bowl win over a Texas Tech team going through the motions makes a top five team? It would be one thing if they lost to an elite team such as Florida or Alabama. They couldn't even beat a South Carolina team that never has and never will be elite. Even though South Carolina won, they didn't even look good while winning. They max out at 7-5, they commit dumb penalties, they don't completely capitalize on opportunities. Pretty much, they're the SEC equivalent to Michigan State (NOT a good thing).........despite their inherent mediocrity they still didn't find a way to lose to this alleged #4 team.

77-Flirting with Disaster--LSU/Michigan

For struggling to/needing to pull a win out of nowhere against inferior teams that they should of blown out (by halftime). [Mississippi State and Indiana respectively] Still these two teams did well in the one area that ultimately matters (not losing), are still undefeated and could still run the table and get to the top of the BCS pecking order.

87-Kentucky Fried Movie- Kentucky

To not showing up against Florida. Sure, Kentucky is never going to be good at football and nobody is expecting them to beat Florida. But to be down 31-0 after the first quarter. That's the type of things that happens to a division 1-AA not an SEC team (albeit a bad one).

91-Revenge of the Nerds Boise State/TCU/Houston

The Non-BCS/BCS school debate has taken on the Jocks vs. Nerds setup depicted in this movie. The BCS schools (and their advocates such as David Whitley) want to do everything possible to discredit the rest of these teams and to hog all the money and glory for themselves.

The Boise's, TCUs and Houston's of this world just want their chance to show they are just as good (if not better) than some of these BCS teams and to have a chance to play for the BCS title game and be recognized for the teams they are fielding.

So far, there is reasonable hope that it could happen this year. Boise State has cracked the top 5 and has a win over a solid Oregon team to their credit. TCU just went on the road and beat Clemson. Last but definitely not least Houston and their success against the Big 12. They followed up their win over Oklahoma State with a thrilling come-from behind victory over Texas Tech. Point being...there are three undefeated teams that are ready and capable of beating BCS-caliber teams regardless of how much others don't want it to happen.

The College Football Review: Bad Day For Mid-Majors

Well, a third week of college football is in the books. Didn't seem as exciting as the first two weeks, but it did serve the purpose of thinning out the ranks of the unbeaten It still raises some interesting questions such as

Does USC's loss to Washington take them out of the national title chase?

If it were just about any other school, yes. While USC won't be in the discussion (for now)....once the ranks of the undefeated thins out to 2 or less (and assuming USC wins the rest of their games) we will be hearing about them again (rolls eyes).....they've become the New York Yankees of college football and since they get the benefit of a doubt that has evaded undefeated teams of the past such as Boise State/Hawaii/Utah, etc....we will be hearing about them more come November

I still hold firm on my statement that the Mountain West is a great football conference but they didn't help their case yesterday.

Between Utah losing on the road to an Oregon team that showed signs of fight during the game and NOT after the game and BYU getting upset and manhandled at home by Florida St., it looks like there is a void to fill in the BCS party-crasher/going undefeated and getting shut out of the title game slot filled by Utah last year.

Despite yesterday, BYU and Utah are still great teams that will at least be Top 25 but their status as non-BCS schools leaves them zero margin for error. It looks like TCU is the conference's last hope of being the Mountain West school to run the table, be deserving at a national title shot only to be snubbed in favor of a 1 (or 2 loss) team.

All sarcasm aside, yesterday should NOT be an excuse for the Mountain West to be written off. The two teams just didn't do enough to win on their games but they will be back with a vengeance for the rest of the season.

Who becomes the non-BCS darling now?

As I mentioned in the last paragraph, TCU is the last undefeated elite standing in the Mountain West. They were in the mix last year finished in the top-10 but were atrociously relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl against an equally deserving Boise State Team.

So that leaves us with three non-BCS options.. a) Boise State--the hook and ladder darlings of the 2006 season--the only team to play on blue turf that looks extra creepy on HD---and most importantly coached by UC Davis alum Chris Petersen---they look to have the best chance to run the table but the weakness of the WAC works against them

b)TCU--If they can run the gauntlet of their MWC schedule they're probably the best hope or

c)Houston--Can they overcome most people not knowing about them to crash the party. Unlike Boise State and TCU who have gotten themselves high profile wins and have national profiles higher than the conference they play in, Houston hasn't been prominent in the national scene since the early 1990s.

However, they do have an impressive high profile win (AT Oklahoma State) and an explosive offense that should run circles around their Conference USA Schedule. While Conference USA will hurt Houston in the strength of schedule, if they're able to run up the score enough they could raise their profile quickly within the next couple months.

College Football: Houston, Big 11and other observations

Well, a second week of college football action is in the books and now it's time to reflect on the state of College Football

What happened to Oklahoma St.?

Well, helping their national championship hopes is NOT amongst these answers. In all fairness, the Ok St.-Houston game was more entertaining than the 45-35 final score indicated. Oklahoma State put up their fair share of points on the scoreboard but did not have what it takes on defense to stop a high octane Houston offense.

While, if they were a team like Florida, Oklahoma, or USC they could probably get away with losing a game early and still have national title hopes. However, with they twisted way college football decides their championship, Oklahoma St. doesn't have a large enough pedigree to get all the way back to the top.

Well, Oklahoma St. was on the Cover of SI this week, you know what this means

That being more insufferable banter from SI Cover curses conspiracy theorists. I hope this gets past most of these because even if there was such a thing as the curse, they would have lost their first game to Georgia (they were on the cover last month) and also the way Case Keenum was playing, they would have beaten anyone. Also, giving up 2 4th quarter touchdowns on 4th and goal means your defense is terrible and has nothing to do with curses.

Speaking of Houston and Case Keenum, where does it put them for the rest of the year?

Obviouslly, Houston has turned at least a few heads as they made it into the AP top 25 for the first time since 1991. If Houston can play some better D, they could get themselves ranked high enough to sneak into a BCS bowl. Going on the road to Oklahoma State is definitely much more challenging than anything they'll face in Confrence USA, if they can go into T.Boone Pickens Stadium and take care of business, I would be suprised if they lost another regular season game.

Case Keenum for Heisman?

Well it's not like Keenum putting up big numbers is that big of a suprise (he had 5000+ yards and 44 touchdowns last year)

However, that was done on a decent, but fairly annonomous team. This year, with a nationally ranked and more prominent team, if Keenum continues to put up these video-game type numbers.....his profile and Heisman hopes could get a serious (and deserved) boost.

So Michigan beat Notre Dame yesterday, wake me when they beat someone good?

At looks like Michigan is on the right track after a thrilling win over Notre Dame (after a disastarous 2008)..but let's put things in perspective.....this was Notre Dame. While this would have been an impressive win 20 years ago, Notre Dame has turned into a joke of a football program that gets a disproportionate amount of media attention for acheving the most menial of tasks (i.e. beating Nevada).

It's always a good thing when Wisconsin beats a team from California?

While i'm realistically not too high on Wisconsin's hopes this year, i'm glad they were able to take care of business against Fresno State. After last year's near-loss to Cal Poly, it was good to see a victory pulled out in double-OT. Admittedly, I didn't get a chance to start watching until the 4th quarter but I liked the resilience that they showed after Fresno State tied with a field goal with just seconds left.

Fresno State and Wisconsin have developed a pretty good rivalry over the years, the games are usually close and entertaining and this year was no exception.

OMG....An elite Big 11 team lost to an elite team from another conference......i'm so shocked....oh wait no i'm not

I will give Ohio State credit for at least not getting blown out. On the negative side, they did have a lead in the final minutes of the 4th quarter which they blew when USC methodically drove down the field with Freshman QB Matt Barkley to prove for the millionth time that the elite team from other conferences is superior to the elite teams from the Big 11

When will UCD break into the Win Column?

Soon, hopefully. They at least got onto the scoreboard and scored a touchdown. But blowing a 10-point lead at home to Montana, no bueno.