The Thursday 2-Fifths

Didn't have enough time to write a full F5ive, here's a preview for the two games running on MLB Network today

1- Nationals vs. Reds
MLB Network
Hernandez vs. Volquez Interest Level:4

So, apparently the Nationals have pitchers not named Strasburg pitching for them. When Livian Hernandez got off to that scorching hot start, it was clear that it was built up with smoke, mirrors, good luck and a low BABIP. In other words, Livan Hernandez odds of that great start lasting the season had as good of a chance of surviving as that house made of straw in the 3 little pigs had of surviving the big bad wolf. As of today, his ERA stands at 3.27 and appears to be well on its way to its rightful place in the mid to upper 4 range.

The Reds counter with Edison Volquez (who despite failing a drug-test doesn't actually serve his 50-game suspension because he happened to be injured at the time....I don't see how this could be a controversy if the Reds win the division, but thats besides the point). who pitched well in his first start of 2010 and looks to give their pitching staff a much needed jolt in the arm as they battle the Cardinals for the NL Central playoff spot.

2- Royals vs. Yankees MLB Network Chen vs. Sabathia

The Royals and Nationals on National TV on the same day! This can be placed on the list of things that would never hapen on FOX or ESPN.

Anyways, the Royals are playing their normal role of also-ran, sitting at 12 games out of first (I thought it would look a lot worse for them at this point). The Royals bring Bruce Chen to the hill. Surprisingly, Chen hasn't pitched that bad this year (5-3 4.06 era 104 ERA+) I didn't say it was great but it's not bad either........it's a bit mind boggling that the dude has pitched for 10 teams in his career (including 4/5 of the NL East by the time he was 25)....considering he's left handed and only 33, he could very easily break the all-time record for teams pitched for before all is said and done.

None of this really matters as they are facing the Yankees and CC Sabathia. The Yankees are contending for a division title/world series title (as always) and a pre-requisite of that is taking care of business against also-ran teams such as the Royals.

5/28: Epic Duels, Epic Walkoffs With A Side Of West-Coast Bias

Well, it's been an interesting night baseball-wise. The Brewers-Mets game has been an epic pitchers duel to the nth degree as Yovani Gallardo and Johan Santana have put zeros across the score-board all night long.

As I write this, there is one gone in the bottom of the ninth and the Mets are in the process of making a pitching change. Will this be the second straight day the Crew win it in their last at-bat? That is a question that is yet to be revealed. With Braun and McGehee the next two batters up, the Brewers have a shot.

Braun eeks out an infield hit after Reyes makes a diving stop...good for the momentum but there's still work to do. McGehee jumped the gun and hit a harmless pop-up. Tonight in particular it seems like the Crew hitters have an all or nothing approach (i.e. everyone seems to be swinging for the fences).

And just like that IT WORKED. Corey Hart took one DEEP!!!!!!!!!. Had to chill for a few moments and let the walk-off homer sink in. Even though the Brewers still have work to do standings wise (20-28)....it has been nice to get out of the abyss of a 9-game losing and to start winning some games in the 9th inning instead of losing them.

As epic and awesome as tonight's game was, there is still more baseball to get into. We might be getting towards the late games but these games do have heavy fantasy implications for myself. As I write this, my team is trailing by 4 points for the week (191.5-187.5) and two of my starting pitchers are pitching right now (Cain and Richard) and the team i'm up against has Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir getting starts currently.

In other words, lots of hectic split-screen back and forth engagement between split-screens on the mlb.tv and the Angels game on Fox Sports West.

Right now, my main focus is on the Padres-Zombie Expos game as Clayton Richard has put up 3 2/3 scoreless right now. If Clayton Richard keeps this up, i'll have to ask myself why it took me so long for me to replace John Lackey with Clayton Richard.

I'd definitely have to say that I find the Padres to be one of the more interesting teams in baseball this year. Pretty much everyone (myself included) thought the Padres had little or zero chance to contend this year. But the way that team is pitching, this is a definitely a team that is not going away anytime soon (even though Willingham just hit a 3-run shot off of Richard).

The Zombie Expos on the other hand seem to be playing the hang around .500 until they can call up Strasburg without accruing arbitration time in 2010 (this rule manipulation is up there amongst things that are wrong with pro baseball). While this team is not going to be as bad as they have been the last few years (100-plus losses)......I definitely wouldn't give the Zombie Expos a higher than 20% percent chance to stick around (tougher division, less overall talent, no way that Livian Hernandez keeps that era low, etc.).

Either way, if I end up winning this league Strasburg will be indirectly involved to some extent (no he's not on my team). To back track, third base had been a black hole for my in the first month of the season as I decided to pick Brandon Wood's upside over Casey McGehee (big mistake). I had stuck with Wood (not good) gave Casey Blake a chance to start (didn't work out) but at this moment, a third basemen fell out of the sky the same way a spinal surgeon fell out of the sky for Benjamin Linus when Oceanic 815 crashed on to the island. I look one day and Casey McGehee was on the waiver wire. I picked him up and out of curiosity looked to see who the NL Leader In RBI was replaced with (none other than Steven Strasburg).

Bounced to the D-Backs-Giants game to see if the Giants can put up some runs on Edwin Jackson. The Giants broadcast team just put up a pop-up of highest slugging average since 2009. Not suprisingly, Kung Fu Panda took the 1-spot. The #2 spot, Andres Torres.

While it may be a small sample size (305 At-Bats) and he didn't exactly set the world on fire prior to coming to The City, it does seem odd that it took Torres a year to get regular playing time considering how much this team has struggled to score runs in recent memory. Playing for the Giants (and thus half his games at Pac-Bell and he's put up a nice 126 OPS+, his profile may be low but that's actually fairly impressive. (Giants went up 2-0 BTW).

Back to the Padres-Zombies game which has the Zombie Expos up 3-1 (my team is up by .5 pts currently).........it looks like lots of leads changes and ties for my fantasy team tonight. Since Richard wasn't back on the mound yet, back to the Giants game and Matt Cain cruising along into the 4th inning.

Cain gets through another scoreless half-inning, my lead jumps to 4 points (helped along by Scott Kazmir giving up 4 runs). Off to the top of the 5th inning, a shot of the San Diego skyline and Richard racking up his second K. Richard shows a nice bounce-back from giving up the homer as he goes through a very quick 1-2-3 5th inning.

Back to the Giants-D-Backs game. I show up just in time to see Bengie Molina strike out. With mega-prospect call-up season right around the corner, Molina may not have many more chances to look clueless at the plate. Molina's (probable) replacement Buster Posey could be coming over from Fresno any day.

While this article indicates that Posey could be brought in to play 1st instead of going behind the plate, it is inevitable that Posey will take his reigns as Giants catcher of the future at some point. With the Giants still having hope for contending (only 3 1/2 out) and their offense struggling as always, there just seems to be more-upside to upgrading (i.e. starting Posey) at Catcher than at First.

Aubrey Huff has had a reasonable bounce-back season so far and it being questionable that Bengie Molina is an asset offensively (yes he can be counted on to hit .270-.290 with 15-20 homers but the last time he even had a 100 OPS+ was in 2006 with the Blue Jays). Point being, the numbers show that Molina is a slightly below league average hitter, he's 35 this year (his hitting is bound to regress at some point) and I think Posey is one of those prospects who steps in and gives his team a boost (probably should have broken camp with the Giants but hey, he "needed" those two months to develop his game.

Well I finished that rant in time to see Cain put up scoreless inning number 5 (as my team has pushed the lead up to 10). Kung Fu Panda misses an opp to blow the game open as he strikes out with the bases are loaded. The Giants are still in good shape though (up 3-0) and my team's lead has expanded to 16 1/2 points.

Well, that's whats going on right now....been a pretty good night.....till next time

Early Week National TV Baseball Preview

Time to see what's in store to start the second week of the season

Red Sox vs. Twins Monday ESPN

Lester vs. Pavano

Interest Level:6

The Twins finally get to open Target Field. It should be interesting to see how this stadium plays out in terms of whether it will be hitter friendly or not. The Red Sox come into this game at 3-3, the Twins have started 5-2 and at this point and appear to have not missed a beat despite not having Joe Nathan closing games out.

Reds vs. Marlins Monday MLB Network

Cueto vs. Nolasco

Interest Level: 4

The Reds were a lot of peoples pick to be a sleeper team in 2010. With a 3-3 start, they haven't really done anything to prove or disprove this notion. The Marlins had a nice first week going 4-2 and bring Ricky Nolasco (one of my picks to bounce back in 2010) to the hill.

Angels vs. Yankees Tuesday MLB Network

Santana vs. Pettite

Interest Level: 5

The Yankees started off pretty strong this week at a 4-2 clip. The Angels, well they have had better weeks. Hideki Matsui looks to be an excellent signing for the Angels early on as he came up clutch against the A's in last nights game. One of the few bright spots in their 2-5 week. Speaking of bright spots, Brandon Wood has been the exact opposite of this in his first week with a full time starting gig. Is this a sign of things to come or just the result of a bad week? We'll find out in due time.

D-Backs vs. Dodgers Tuesday MLB Network

Kennedy vs. Kershaw

Interest Level: 6

An early season NL West divisional battle. Not too much of a shock that one of these teams is sitting in second and one of them is sitting in fourth. The surprising thing is that the D-Backs are the team sitting in second and the Dodgers are the team sitting in 4th. One good reason to check this game out is that Clayton Kershaw is taking the hill for the Dodgers. Kershaw still struggles with bouts of wildness from time to time but has the talent/potential to be a Cy Young award caliber pitcher. Does this happen in 2010? Stay tuned to find out.

Nationals vs. Phillies Wednesday MLB Network

TBD vs. Kendrick

Interest Level: 4

The Phillies were expected by just about everyone to take the NL East so the fact that they are 5-1 and hanging out in 1st place shouldn't be shock to anyone. The Nationals were expected to drop straight down to the cellar but had a respectable 3-3 first week which was aided by random big games from the likes of Cristian Guzman and Willy Taveras (who did their part to place me in the basement of my Razzball league).

Astros vs. Cardinals

Myers vs. Penny

Interest Level:5

Another game where there isn't too many surprises about the teams respective places in the standings. No surprise at St. Louis at the top. No surprise that the Astros are at the bottom. The one surprise with the Astros is just the degree of ineptitude they have displayed in the first week of the season. They carry the title of being the only team to not win a game in 2010........ouch.

A Retro-Active Diary Of My Razzball Team

Alright, a couple weeks ago I wrote a brief post about my Razzball team where the object of the game is to draft the worst team possible and listed who I drafted but didn't get into too much detail........until now. Today, one of my fellow league members dedicated a post to doing a blow-by-blow account of the team they drafted.

Well, this inspired me to do a blow-by-blow retroactive running diary of the trainwreck that I drafted.

Round 1: Jason Kendall

Being a Brewers fan, I was way too familiar with the sheer ineptitude that is Jason Kendall. It got to the point where any positive thing he did, no matter how insignificant (i.e. NOT hitting into an inning-ending double play, hitting the ball out of the infield) was seen as exceeding expectations. In the early rounds, I was improvising but all I knew was that I was taking Kendall if he was still available. Based on his probable .240 hitting with no power and that he somehow gets to start 130 games a year and he plays for a Royals team where he will probably drive in even less runs than he did in Milwaukee, there is no way this pick can go wrong

Round 2: Bobby Crosby

After getting Kendall, my next thought was to get First Base covered as Razzball-worthy hitters become catchers and middle infielders, not first basemen. Why Crosby? Plays for a terrible team? Pirates, check. Versatility at positions associated with offense? First Base/Third Base, check. Sub-.700 OPS/Sub-.240 Average/no more than 9 homers the last four years? Check.

Round 3: Brendan Harris

Got another corner infield player on accident. I was looking towards drafting some good old fashioned middle infield ineptitude here...I was trying to avoid drafting players from teams that are generally pretty smart (Twins) but anytime you can snag some Sub .700 OPS corner infield eligibility, you have to go for it.

Round 4: Gary Matthews Jr.

Matthews Jr. has answered the ultimate question of how you can catapult one above-average season and one You Tube worthy catch into making $10 million a year and making Jeff Suppan's contract look like a wise investment......even though the Mets weren't the ones that signed the contract (this one is on L.A. of Anaheim of California of America of Earth of Milky Way) it doesn't seem surprising that a player of this caliber ended up on the Mets.

Round 5: Fausto Carmona

After going with hitters in the first four rounds, I noticed that more pitchers were coming off the board around this time and started scrambling around to get my own piece of this pitching ineptitude. And what did I come back with? A pitcher whose WHIP has skyrocketed the last two years (1.76) if i'm lucky maybe he can break the 2 WHIP barrier. 70 Walks in 125 innings, 16 homers and an ERA north of 6. The icing on the cake? Carmona is projected to be the Indians #2 starter, making it unlikely that Carmona will lose said job because of his high ineptitude.

Round 6: Bill Hall

Not sure how many ABs i'll get out of Hall but my experience as a Brewers fan tells me that he's gotten progressively worse since his career year (pretty much the hitting equivalent of Fausto Carmona), the dude swings at just about everything regardless of how close the ball is to the strike zone and assuming he gets playing time, should be a valuable source of strikeouts.

Round 7: Oliver Perez

Got myself two pitchers in a three round period that have seen their WHIP skyrocket in the last few years. An ERA that looks primed to break the 7-barrier, a WHIP that is at 1.9.....oh so close to the 2 WHIP barrier and pitching for a Mets team where he shouldn't lose his job as long as he stays healthy.

Round 8: Willy Taveras

A player who has a chance to be a star.....if they ever make it legal to steal first.

Around this time I noticed a lot of the players I was drafting or was looking to draft either play or at one time played for one of four teams (Royals, Team Formerly Known As The Expos, Pirates and Mets). Around the 7th or 8th round, I shifted to a strategy to draft only players from those four teams unless I stumbled across from a player that was such a trainwreck that I couldn't resist. I would have mentioned this earlier but i'm partially distracted by the multi-OT epic that Xavier and K-State are putting on.

Round 9: Chris Jakubauskas

Had to double-check the draft page to make sure I spelt his name correctly. Don't know too much about him but considering the Pirates deemed him worthy, he should be a good source of losses. A high risk of wasted non-talent here as it looks doubtful that he will break camp with the Pirates.

Round 10: Nelson Figueroa

Time to stock up on some inept middle reliever with a slight chance of starting. He made 10 starts last year and logically could back his way into the rotation if the Mets rotation has injury issues (a matter of when not if). Anytime I can benefit off of the ineptitude of someone who pitched 30 games in the same year that the Brewers hit rock bottom and lost 106 times, there's no way I could pass it up.

Round 11: Yuniesky Betancourt

When in doubt, see who the Royals have available. If they have a .689 career OPS a career sub .300 OPS and on a team hopeless enough that that won't necessarily be a deterrent to starting. Now just as long as those 24-run Royals game only happen in spring training, I should be good.

Round 12: Craig Stammen

Young pitcher with an ERA slightly north of 5. A little concerned about his WHIP only being 1.29 and only walking 24 in 105 innings but c'mon he pitches for the Nationals. Their best pitchers are John Lannan and Jason Marquis, how good can he be?

Round 13: Mike Jacobs

On his second stint on the Mets......played a season for the Royals (which was an epic fail) he strikes out about once every four at bats, hits for a low average and comes to Citi Field.....if it can suppress the power of players that are actually good (David Wright), I can't wait to see what this stadium does to Jacobs' numbers

Round 14: Cristian Guzman

Only in a fantasy league like this, you have to worry about your starters losing time due to incompetency. .....I was feeling better about this pick until seeing that he lost his job to Ian Desmond.....fits the profile of someone that the Mets will trade for.....just a hunch

Round 15: Jeff Karstens

Had a near 1.5 WHIP and a 5+ ERA in '09.......he was so valuable in the Razzball world that he got shipped to minor league camp

Round 16: Jeff Francoeur

Banking on him NOT hitting .311 for the Mets again. Banking on pitchers realizing that he will swing at just about anything, banking on an excellent source of strikeouts.

Round 17: Tim Redding

Another player I was excited about until he got sent to the minors today.

Round 18: Mitch Maier

On the bright side, at least I ain't losing him to the minors. On the not so bright side, he's been tearing it up in the spring and his manager is lauding him for developing really quick this spring. On the bright side, talent evaluation isn't amongst the Royals strengths.

Round 19: Evan Meek

Looking at the numbers, didn't pitch that bad last year.....picked him more to a lack of familiarity and the PIT indicating he pitches for the Pirates next to his name.....if he keeps up his 8 to 1 K To Walk ratio he has this spring, he probably won't be long for this team....however, if he maintains his 5.79 ERA, Meek will be a most valuable asset.

Round 20: Ryan Church

Drafted a few rounds below the player (Francoeur) that he got traded for last summer. I actually wrote a post arguing that the Braves got the better of the deal for getting Church. Here's to both players not playing well this year.

Round 21: Jordan Zimmermann

A case of not doing my homework, getting lured by the fact that he plays for the Nationals and not realizing that he's on the 60-Day DL....oh well.

Round 22: Alex Cora

Mets utility fielder.....fine for opening day........658 career OPS.........welcome to Razzball Mr. Cora.

Round 23: Fernando Tatis

Mediocrity+multi-position eligibility+ Round 23= Jackpot

Round 24: Rod Barajas

Pro: Mediocre Batting Average

Con: He has 20 homer power

Pro: He's playing in citi field that has sapped the power of better, more talented players

Round 25: Colin Balester

5.87 ERA in 22 career starts....now if only he can crack the rotation

Round 26: Nick Punto

Protypical dime a dozen light hitting middle infielder

Round 27: Daniel Cabrera

Another player that is too valuable in the Razzball world to make a major league team....I am holding out hope that someone will give him a few starts this year. He drew 42 walks in 51 innings and showed himself perfectly capable of rocking a 2+ WHIP.

Well that in a nutshell is how I constructed the worst Fantasy baseball team that I could construct. I just have to wait a few more days to see how this goes down.

NL East Preview Part II

Our standings after the first half:

Phillies 17

Braves 22

Nationals 25

Marlins 27

Mets 29

Starting Rotation:

Phillies-4

Braves-8

Marlins-12

Mets-16

Nationals-20

The Phillies by far are best off in the rotation. Halladay ends up in Philly (finally) and it would be shock if he isn't one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. While Hamels didn't exactly light the world on fire in 2009 which was aided more by a high BABIP against and not on him suddenly turning into a mediocre pitcher. Blanton is your protypical mid-rotation pitcher...no better no worse. There's absolutely no way J.A. Happ replicates his breakthrough year but at the same time he's a better #4 option than anyone else has.

The Braves may be weak in the star-power at the top of the rotation but make up for it with depth. There's no way Lowe struggles as much this year as last, Hanson and Jurrjens are likely to come down a little bit from strong 2009 seasons but that doesn't change the fact that both of them are legit pitchers. Hudson pitched well after coming back from injury but 42 innings is too early to tell whether he can stay healthy and whether he can return to his dominant form.

Josh Johnson may not be a household name like Halladay or Santana but if 2009 is any indication, he could be within the discussion for best pitcher in the NL East this year. Nolasco should bounce back after struggles connected more to bad luck than being a bad pitcher. Volstad should hold his own as a #3 but beyond that don't expect much from the Marlins rotation.

For the Mets, its Santana and.....not much else. Maine and Pelfrey are pretty mediocre pitchers, Oliver Perez is an asset to Razzball and anyone that's a fan of pitchers who think the strike zone is a foreign concept.

The Nationals have John Lannan and Jason Marquis as their top two starters......and it gets worse from there......ouch

Bullpen

Mets-4

Braves-8

Phillies-12

Nationals-16

Marlins-20

Not too crazy about what any of these teams have with the game on the line. The Mets do have K-Rod.....while he does make lots of money and racks up lots of saves....i'm not quite sold on him as being elite.....but he has been relatively healthy (Unlike Wagner) and has never racked up blown saves and 7-plus ERAs like they were going out of style (Brad Lidge....cough....cough) so the Mets get this one by default.

Final Rankings

Phillies-33

Braves-38

Mets-49

Marlins-59

Nations-61

No surprises with the top two, no surprise that the Mets are nowhere near the top, not surprising the Nationals are at the bottom....the only difference between conventional thought and the final rankings is how low the Marlins are ranked.

NL East Preview Part I

Last but not least, the NL East:

Catcher:

Brian McCann-1

Carlos Ruiz-2

John Baker-3

Ivan Rodriguez-4

Rod Barajas-5

McCann wins this.....by a lot. The only catcher that you could definitely say is better than McCann is Joe Mauer. Since Joe Mauer plays in the AL Central, McCann is the #1 catcher in both the NL East and on Chedderhead. After McCann, it's the lesser of four evils....Ruiz has some decent upside but if he hasn't broken out already at 31 that's sort of a red light. I-Rod has had a great career and if we were talking about overall bodies of work he would be number 1 but he has seen better days. I could see Rod Barajas working out as a good signing, if he was a left handed hitter playing at Yankee Stadium. However, he ended up on a team that plays their home games at a stadium that suppresses his one strength (hitting home runs) which may explain how he ended up on my Razzball team.

First Base

1-Ryan Howard

2-Adam Dunn

3-Daniel Murphy

4-Troy Glaus

5-Gaby Sanchez

Howard continued to establish himself as one of the elite hitters in the game in 2009. I see no reason why this won't continue into the new decade. Adam Dunn has been and continues to be the Mr. 3TO.......Drawing Walks, Hitting Homers, Striking Out....Dunn has his game down to the basics. On name recognition, Glaus would get the nod over Murphy but a) it's tough to tell whether he will stay healthy all year and b) even if he is healthy, it's unclear whether he will return to form

Second Base

1-Chase Utley

2-Dan Uggla

3-Martin Prado

4-Adam Kennedy

5-Luis Castillo

Another position, another Phillies player amongst the elite of the game. Uggla has established himself as Adam-Dunn lite. Hits for a very pedestrian average, hits plenty of homers (30-ish but not as much as Dunn) he is drawing walks at an increased rate (14% vs. 18% for Dunn) but then again the power standards for second basemen is lower than for first baseman.

Shortstop

1-Hanley Ramirez

2-Jimmy Rollins

3-Yunel Escobar

4-Jose Reyes

5-Ian Desmond

One word.....LOADED. Han-Ram gives you 30-30 potential in any given year and makes a strong case for the best shortstop in the bigs (he even got drafted 1st overall in the league that Cheddarhead plays in). Yes, Jimmy Rollins had a rough season, it still seems odd that he won an MVP and doesn't draw very many walks. However, his struggles look to be linked to low BABIP and he should bounce-back strong in 2010. Escobar is a young talented player and will likely overtake Rollins as a player within a few years, I just don't think it happens this year. Jose Reyes is talented enough to be higher but with the injury problems he is facing/will inevitably face all year and the fact that the Mets fall back plan is Alex Cora, I can't really justify ranking him higher.

Third Base

1-Ryan Zimmerman

2-David Wright

3-Chipper Jones

4-Jorge Cantu

5-Placido Polanco

Seems to be a trend in the NL East where the best player by position is the best by a lot not a little. When that player happens to be the starting third baseman for Chedderhead, even better. Tough to tell what to expect out of David Wright in '10. He's still reliable to hit for a good average but whether his power remains at 2009 levels or returns to historical norms remains to be seen. His hr/fb% dropped last year which also coincided with moving to Citi Field. Too early to tell whether his power drop resulted just bad luck or the stadium. Regardless, this area of doubt is enough to drop him well behind Zimmerman but above Jones whose name recognition has overtaken production, Cantu who had one really good season and many indicators showing that his 2008 level of production is unlikely to replicate himself

Left Field

1-Josh Willingham

2-Raul Ibanez

3-Jason Bay

4-Matt Diaz

5-Chris Coghlan

An overall uninspiring group. I will always associate Josh Willingham as the guy who hit grand slams in consecutive innings off Jeff Suppan (making him single-handedly responsibility for my least favorite Brewers moment of the year). Given a chance to start he has a decent chance to go yard 30-35 times. Ibanez had a nice 2009....his home run totals were inflated by an abnormally high hr/fb ratio and had nothing to do with the weak steroid speculation or the bloggers that Ibanez thinks all live in their mothers basement. Jason Bay is a free agent bust waiting to happen. A combination of decreasing contact percentage (he dropped from 76% to 69% last year......only 3% away from becoming a Bill Hall All-Star) and moving to Citi Field where power goes to die.....a pretty good chance this goes down as another bad Mets contract before all is said and done.....also a generous ranking at 3rd....Also not sold on Coghlan replicating his Rookie of the Year Season.

Center Field

1-Nate McLouth

2-Carlos Beltran

3-Shane Victorino

4-Nyjer Morgan

5-Cameron Maybin

Another less than inspiring crop. McLouth is a decent player but definitely not a superstar. On talent and name-brand recognition Beltran should win this hands down but I have little to no faith in his ability to stay healthy. Victorino (like Bay) is a player i've never been too high on (being the same guy that hit a grand slam off C.C. Sabathia in the 2008 NLDS that made it official that the Brewers playoff appearance was only going to be a cameo don't help either) but get's the #3 spot by default. Not sold on Morgan replicating his strong 2009 season and not sold on Maybin.

Right Field

1-Jayson Werth

2-Cody Ross

3-Melky Cabrera

4-Elijah Dukes

5-Jeff Francoeur

Lost in all the Phillies firepower from players like Ibanez, Howard and Utley the fact that Werth hit 36 homers got lost in the mix. He comes back this year with an epic beard, a contract to play for and secondary numbers that indicate his power spike is legit....could he be dark horse MVP candidate.....not as crazy as it sounds. Cody Ross seems like a slighty improved version of Mike Cameron (at least as a hitter) slighty better average .260 range and 25 homers......but nothing that stands out....(well unless Ross hits 4 of said homers in a game or ever plays drunk and tells the media about it). Speaking of Mike Cameron, the player he almost (and thankfully) didn't get traded straight up for in the winter of 2008-2009 Cabrera gets the #3 spot mostly due to his competition being Dukes who seems determined to not live up to his talent and one of the members of my Razzball team, Jeff Francoeur.

Standings after Part I:

Phillies 17

Braves 22

Nationals 25

Marlins 27

Mets 29

Why Signing Chien-Ming Wang is a good move by the Nationals

So, Chien-Ming Wang just signed with the team formerly known as the Montreal Expos.

While I have been critical about them signing Adam Kennedy over Orlando Hudson and signing Willy Taveras, to a contract, there is a decent chance the Nationals get this signing right.

As a disclaimer, I am fully aware that Wang has been hampered by injuries which could make the following discussion null and void.

One reason I think this is a smart signing is that ghastly 9.64 ERA is highly fluky and there's no way he could pitch that bad for two years in a row. Taking a closer look at his 2009 numbers it looks like he got horribly......horribly....atrociously unlucky last year. Hitters had a .407 BABIP against him. That is 110 points higher than his career total. Whatever comes up must come down and that BABIP should regress to somewhere around that .297 career total (regardless of whether or not he pitches better) which in turn should return his numbers closer to his 2005-2008 totals.

Point being, even if he doesn't pitch any better in 2010, his ERA should drastically improve as a BABIP that off the charts high is not sustainable for the long term. Another reason is he got unlucky with fly balls turning into home runs. While Wang struggled both at home and on the road, getting away from Yankee Stadium should help. Opposing hitters had a 1.091 OPS against him at home. It's clear that he got unlucky with giving him home runs as well as his 1.5 HR/9 innings allowed is twice as high as his previous career high ( and more than three times his totals from 2006 & 2007 when he led the AL in this category).

Also, Wang isn't that old (he'll be 30 by opening day) so I wouldn't write him off as washed out. From his prior body of work, it is clear he knows how to pitch ( outside of 2009, he was an above league average pitcher and as recent as 4 years ago he was second in Cy Young Voting).

My point is don't write of Chien-Ming Wang because the bottom fell out in 2009. He didn't have a bad season because he forgot how to pitch, he had a bad season because he got about as unlucky as a pitcher could be within the scope of 42 innings. The Nationals have made a lot of dumb moves over the year, this move bucks the trend as it is a savvy low-risk high reward move.

If the Nationals lose 100 times again, this may have something to do with it

Today, the Nationals signed Willy Taveras to a 1-year deal. Why they signed him is beyond me. Taveras is the ultimate 1-tool (stolen base) player. Yes he can run and steal bases (while limiting how often he gets caught)......but the Taveras signing (even to a modest $400,000) makes me scratch my head and think along the lines of how does he keep finding work?

Despite hitting in hitter-friendly parks the last couple years ('08 in Colorado, '09 in Cincinnati) Taveras' hitting performance has been nothing to write home about (55 OPS+ in '08 48 OPS+ in '09......ouch). On top of that, he's gotten 400-plus plate appearances in those seasons while not even being close to being an asset at the plate.

If nothing else, getting rid of Taveras does seem to improve teams (Rockies went from 74 to 92 wins after he left Colorado and the Reds seem primed to improve from their 78 win season in 2010.) Still, if Taveras somehow gets another 400+ plate appearances and they lose another 100-plus games (again), we at least know where a lot of the blame can get distributed to.

Brewers-Nationals Preview: How Much Worse Will it Get

It feels like it can't get worse......but that's also not the first time i've had that feeling.....getting swept by the Skeleton Pirates....by what was already a glorified triple-A team....before they traded away half of their starting line-up........well it's time to put that behind and see what this weekend has in store

Brewers [58-62] vs. Nationals [43-78]

Friday
Looper [10-6 5.03 era 84 ERA+] vs. Martin [2-2 4.61 era 94 ERA+]

The last time these teams played, Jeff Suppan gave up two grand slams to consecutive players. In light of Suppan and Looper battling to be the most incompetent pitcher on this staff and his propensity to give up the long ball....i wouldn't be shocked to see Looper give up 3 grand slams in a game....the Nationals have rookie J.D. Martin starting......don't know too much about him.....his wikipedia page says his fastball tops out in the high 80s.....so for all we know he's this generation's Suppan/Looper

Saturday

Burns [3-4 5.36 era 79 ERA+] vs. Lannan [8-9 3.68 era 118 ERA+]

The last time Mike Burns started happened to be the last time the Brewers scored more runs than the team they were playing. Burns turned out his best start of the season on Saturday. However, Burns easily goes from good to atrocious on a start by start basis depending on how well he is locating his pitches [which is usually apparent within an inning or two]. The Nationals start a talented and one of the leagues more under-rated pitchers in John Lannan. Despite having a season very similar to Joba Chamberlin..he gets about 1/100th of the attention because Lannan was unlucky enough to pitch for one of the 28 teams ESPN doesn't care about promoting....I wouldn't be shocked if Lannan becomes one of the elite pitchers in the bigs

Sunday

Parra [8-9 6.33 era 67 ERA+] vs. TBD[?-?]

Either way both teams probably score lots of runs. The Brewers have given Parra lots of run support since his return from Nashville and Parra has started to give up lots of runs on a regular basis lately.

Monday

Gallardo [11-10 3.59 era 119 ERA+] vs. TBD

Either way, the Brewers bat's no show in this one. Something about Braden Looper having a better win-loss record than Gallardo is highly unjust. Also, it shows that win-loss records can sometimes be less credible than a Brett Favre retirement.

I was watching the MLB Network replay of a game from 1981 and it got me thinking.........

So, earlier today I watched part of MLB Network's replay of game 5 of the 1981 NLCS between the Dodgers and the Expos.


One thing that stuck out to me [other than how ghetto their stadium Stade Olympique looked] was a comment made by the broadcasters that likely made sense at the time but time proved to be horribly inaccurate was something along the lines of that Expos team being more than a one time playoff team and that they were going to be highly successful in the 80s.

Well.......that didn't exactly work out for them. While they were not the bottom feeders that they eventually became [they only had two losing seasons in the '80s], it brought to light that the Expos/Nationals have been one of the more star-crossed and success deprived franchises in baseball.

In addition to their tendency to only make it to first place in strike-shortened seasons' it just seems to be either one thing or another

Anyways, I was looking at their baseball-reference page from that year and it's tough to see how the playoffs would ultimately evade them for the ensuing years let alone 28-plus years.

This was a team that had lots of young players who contributed to this team and players who played well up in Montreal for at least the next few years after '81.........

For their starting line up they had one hall-of-famer [Gary Carter] two perennial all-stars, with at least a case for the hall of fame [Tim Raines and Andre Dawson] that were surrounded by a bunch of players who had solid consistent careers [Tim Wallach, Larry Parrish, etc.]

On the pitching side they had veteran ace Steve Rodgers [who unfortunately gave up the series-losing home run] and younger players such as Bill Gullickson, Scott Sanderson, Charlie Lea and Bryn Smith...plus they had Jeff Reardon closing out the games for them.......in other words, if they would have had another young player or made another free agent aquisition things may have turned out better and they may have followed up on the promising start that the 80's had for them

Taking a look at what this team and the high expectations/great things expected out of this team......it makes things look like the 1980s Expos were a forgotten dynasty.....the dynasty that never happened....whether their '81 NLCS loss just took a lot out of them or if it was something along the lines of being just one or two veterans away from taking them over the top......these Expos teams seem to be one where you could spend hours in what-if speculation............but it wouldn't do anything to change what has already happened,

Why? Cause it's easier than firing 25 players

Heading into the all-star break and the franchise formerly known as the montreal expos commemorated the all-star break by firing manager Manny Acta.

Not too much to say here. Just another classic case of a manager losing his job because he had the misfortune of being in charge of the least talented team in baseball. It will definitely be hard for him to get another chance to manage in the big leagues with a record of 158-252. The sad thing about this is it is really hard to gage the competence (or lack of) for Manny Acta since the Nationals roster is more or leas a joke

Noted by the plethora of has-beens and never will be's it's halfway impressive this team has managed to even go 26-61

This team has a grand total of 4 players that could get a starting spot on an even mediocre team. Johnson, Dunn, Zimmerman and John Lannan. My first thought is how bad will this team be once they trade Johnson and Dunn? My second thought is a) who are these players ? b) they're still playing professionally?

Josh Bard? Anderson Hernandez? Austin Kearns? Corey Patterson? These guys wouldn't even be decent hitters if someone told them which pitches were coming....

Julian Tavarez? Kip Wells? Mike MacDougal? Ron Villone? I thought these guys were retired..........Yep, this is the baseball equivalent to the Detroit Lions

Pretty much if there's any statistic in baseball that should have an asteric it should be Manny Acta's managerial record. Regardless of how genius the person managing this team is........this team is going nowhere...While changing managers helps in cases where the roster is talented but they're not getting it done (see Mets, New York) Acta was caught in the ambush and paid with his job............tragic but that's baseball

Handicapping the 33rd Man Competition: NL Version

So, pretty much this is the second part of yesterday's posting where I break down the fan vote candidate for the all-star game.....today, the national league


From least to most deserving is as follows:

Cristian Guzman- .318/.333/.429 OPS 101+

Just like the team he plays for, Guzman is far and away the least worthy of the candidates. Singles hitter, no power, does nothing particularly well....the only way I could see Guzman as an all star is through the rule mandating representation from all 30 teams....as bad as the team formerly known as the expos have been, ryan zimmerman was good enough to make the all-star team. Guzman isn't even the most deserving non all-star on his own team (that distinction goes to Adam Dunn)....next PLEASE!

Shane Victorino .300/.363/.447 112 OPS+

Alright so he had a well-timed good game against the Reds today. He does lots of things well but doesn't do anything particularly great. I'd rather choose him than Guzman....but there are better options

Mark Reynolds .269/.354/.568 OPS 134+

The NL-equivalent and slightly more deserving version of Carlos Pena. If this vote was for home run derby inclusion, he would be at least second. However, since the league that wins the all-star game gets home-field for the world series I would rather have more players from elite teams (or at least those who are at least in contention).. unfortunately for him Arizona is one of 3 teams that has no semblance of contention hope......NEXT

Matt Kemp .305/.369/.474 OPS 123+

So Kemp barely beat out Reynolds.....he's a good player on a team with very strong world series hopes.....thus giving him more incentive to play well if he were to be selected.....

Granted, these are solid players. However, they were stacked against a player who I believe more people will become aware of as the stretch run continues....a player in the midst of a break out season on a team that is unexpectedly contending

Pablo Sandoval .333/.388/.566 158 OPS+

If this was a couple weeks ago I would most likely be unaware of Pablo Sandoval is. However, the Giants played the Brewers a couple of weekends ago and I came away very impressed with Sandoval (even though they lost 2 out of 3).....this dude is a BEAAAASSSTTTT!!!!

When this guy hits the game can pretty much turn at a moments notice....he's young (only 22!), hitting for a good average, capable of going yard on any pitch/any at bat, and he's the one hitter the giants have that is worth fearing.....

Dude is built like Prince has a Vlad-Guerrero like ability to go yard on any pitch (even if it's not even close to the strike zone) and he's only going to get better......If the Giants are able to score enough runs to stay in contention, this guy will be the reason...I could easily see Sandoval carrying the Giants for the stretch run....

The question for me is not whether Sandoval is better than the other 33rd-man candidates, but why didn't he already get voted in.

The Wednesday Five: The Last Place All-Stars

So last Wednesday I did a list of top 5 baseball records that I feel will never be broken. I was thinking about the direction I wanted to take the blog and I have decided to do a top 5 list on Wednesdays....(p.s. i've decided to also make the weekend sports tv preview a regular post and moved it to thursdays)....anyways with the all-star break and pennant races heating up, i've come up with the idea of giving recognition to the players stuck on last place teams that are going nowhere fast....for this list's considerations the teams included are Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, Washington, Pittsburgh and Arizona

1) Danny Haren- Diamonbacks 7-5 2.19 era 208 era+

If Haren was playing for a team that was even somewhat good and/or played defense above a little league level, he would be getting a lot more Cy Young award talk. He's having his best year by far which is impressive considering he's already a two-time All Star. When you have an ERA that is less than half the league average--something special is going on....too bad it's just happening for a team that's happens to not be very good this year.

2) Adam Dunn-Nationals .260/.396./.528 142 OPS+

Adam Dunn is doing what he's always done. Hit for a pedestrian average, draw lots of walks, strike out a lot and hit lots of homers. Dunn is iconic in his own way for being one of the greatest 3TO (Three True Outcomes) players of all time.....a little over half of his plate appearances have ended with either a walk, strikeout or home run this year. 

The only difference this year is instead of doing this for a 75-win Reds team, he's doing it for a historically bad Nationals team. 

3) Cliff Lee- Indians  4-7 3.39 132 OPS+

Last year's reigning Cy Young Award winner is definitely not winning 20+ games again. Unlike most pitchers who go 4-7, it's not because Cliff Lee is not a good pitcher. He's still putting up staff ace numbers, he's just not getting offensive help behind him.  

It looks as though Cleveland's run of bad luck in sports has spread to their ace pitcher....(well at least until they trade him).

4) George Sherill Orioles 0-1 1.99 era 229 ERA+

Amongst the multitude of players Baltimore got for Eric Bedard. He was an all-star last year but struggled towards the end. 

This year, he is putting up a largely unnoticed monster season as Baltimore's closer. While there ain't many leads to finish off these days...years....decades in Baltimore, when the opportunity has come up this year he has definitely stepped up.

5) Ryan Zimmerman- Nationals- .301/.371.500 128 OPS +

In a weird twist of irony, the team that's far and away the worst (even by last-place team standards) is the one that got two representatives on this list.

While Dunn is putting up a better season, Zimmerman is more or less the face of an otherwise atrocious Nationals team. His highlight of 08/09 was a 30-game hitting streak is the longest seen in baseball since '06. While there were those left off that had an edge statistically, this is more of a lifetime achievement award for Zimmerman's ability to still play well even when surrounded by the Double A caliber "talent" that is pervasive throughout the Nationals roster.

Also receiving consideration: Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Brad Bergesen, Victor Martinez, Shin Choo-Choo, Matt Holiday, Dallas Braden, Andrew Bailey, John Lannan, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, Justin Upton, Doug Davis