The Breakthrough

I was going to post on the NFL today but since it was turning into a semi-coherent rant about me not liking the fact that the Packers gave Tampa their first win.....I decided to go another route.

I was flipping through the channels earlier today and ESPN Classic was replaying the 1983 Sugar Bowl between Penn State and Georgia which is significant because it was the first national championship that Joe Paterno won.

It got me to thinking to which teams within the short term (10 years) are most likely to break through and win their first championship (counting the post-1936 era)....looking through this weeks AP top 25 there are a dozen teams (Cincinnati, Houston, Boise State Oregon, Iowa, Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, South Florida and Stanford) without a Division 1-A championship to their name.

This is my countdown from 12 to 1 on the likeliness for these teams to break through and win a championship sometime within the next decade.

12-Houston

Houston has been an interesting team to say the least. This is the most success they've experienced since the late 80s/early 90s run and shoot era. They have good wins against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech but much of their success this year is on the arm of Case Keenum. Its made for some interesting football (i.e. a thrilling win over Tulsa that was relegated to CBS College Sports). The reality is it will tough to maintain this high level if they can't improve their defense and have a QB as good or better than Case Keenum once he graduates.

11-Iowa

Iowa has always been one of those teams playing in the shadows of Ohio State/Penn State. They've been a program that can be penciled in for anywhere from 6-10 wins a year and be in and out of the Top 25. Iowa being in the top 5 going into this weekend seemed to be an aberration. In reality they were a few breaks away from having 3 or 4 losses already. I don't really see them breaking the ceiling.

10-Arizona

In reality, Arizona and Stanford are interchangeable in these rankings. Arizona has been on the rise since Mike Stoops took over the program but they are still a ways away from breaking through to the elite tear.

9-Stanford

They could go higher up the list depending on how far they progress under Jim Harbaugh. While Jim Harbaugh inherited a pretty bad team a few years ago, the seeds for Stanford breaking the Top 25 have been visible since their upset over USC a couple years ago. For Stanford it all depends on whether they plateau at a borderline top-25 school or whether they break through and can dethrone USC for a year or two.

8-South Florida

South Florida has come along way, considering they didn't even have a football team until 1997. They have had some brushes with success even getting as high as #2 for one week in 2007. Still, they have yet to prove to hold up this caliber of play for an entire year. At this point, October seems to be their vice. Considering they play in a Big East conference that is more concerned with basketball, they could have a shot if they run the table one year and get enough breaks.

7-Wisconsin

A classic example of a team that was able to break through from mediocre to above average but haven't experienced greatness. Barry Alvarez turned this program around and rescued them from mediocrity. The Badgers first break through came in 1993 when they won the Big Ten title and beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl. They have won a few Rose Bowls since but we're 16 years down the road and they have yet to break through.

6-Cincinnati

This year could be their best chance. That is not saying much considering they are in the Top 5 and a lot of unlikely things need to happen for them to break through. They pretty much need at least 3 teams out of Florida, Alabama, Texas and TCU to lose. One of Florida and Alabama will lose but Texas has a fairly clear path and TCU has a tough game against Utah as their major barrier.

5-Oklahoma State

Their chances looked much better earlier this year. They beat Georgia (when it meant something) got into the top 5 but slipped up against Houston a week later. Furthermore, they haven't been at full strength since Dez Bryant got suspended. Still, they have a couple things on their side. First, they play in a competitive Big 12 conference so they don't need to worry about strength of schedule concerns. Second, they have the money to breakthrough as their programs has received millions and a new stadium thanks to the donations of T.Boone Pickens. Obviously this year is a lost cause but with a higher profile and money on their side, they at have a fighting chance.

4- Utah

Utah has been trying to be the non-AQ trailblazer. They were the first to get into a BCS Bowl game. After losing Urban Meyer, they proved that this wasn't a fluke last year by getting to another BCS bowl (although they should of had a chance to play for the national title).

3-Oregon

More of a hunch on this one. They got robbed of a shot in 2001 but I think Chip Kelly is the coach to take them over the top. While they took a step back after their loss to Stanford yesterday...it was impressive how they bounced back after their horrible loss to Boise State and made a season out of it when everyone they could have easily folded. My instinct is they get over the hump with Chip Kelly.

2-Virginia Tech

While V.Tech has been slightly disappointing this year, they are a team that is in the discussion for a title (for at least a little bit). They are a fairly established team, they are competitive year in and year out....its a matter of when not if for this program

1-Boise State

I'm not sure what changes are in store for the next decade but at least one of the changes will help Boise State break the barrier. Boise State is college football's equivalent to Gonzaga in that their team profile is beyond the conference they play in. I could see anything from tweaks in the BCS......a playoff system (more of a pipe dream but come in it only works for every other sports organization) to Boise State moving up to a more competitive conference (either MWC or Pac-10)...that would silence the critics who point out to their weak strength of schedule.

Lots of stuff to talk about.....some NFL, some BCS, some Playoffs?!

Alright, so Saturday was a pretty busy sports day where the Angels-Yankees game overshadowed a pretty good slate of college football games. Today was a strong follow up to yesterday but with no one particular event overshadowing the crowd......my observations from the day in sports

The Saints can and will beat anyone in the league

Going into today, the one non-Packers game that I anticipated the most was the Giants-Saints game. Both teams were undefeated and the upper-hand in the NFC was at hand. The Saints ended up winning the game 48-27. The final score does not do service to how one-sided this affair was. Dree Brews and Marques Colston had their way with the Giants defense. It is scary how good the Saints are with their high-octane offense complemented by a competent defense. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if the Saints go marching to their first Super Bowl this year.

The Vikings have got to lose at some point.......

The Vikings were thiiiissss close to choking in the 4th quarter against the Ravens. The Vikings D had a bad breakdown in the 4th allowing the Ravens to get back into the game. Joe Flacco had an excellent game and deserved to win this one. If only their kicker would have made the last-second field goal. Still, there is no way Favre keeps up his strong performance this year.....they've narrowly escaped defeat twice and their defense hasn't exactly been top-shelf.

The First BCS Standings are out.....

The top 3 are Florida-Alabama-Texas as expected. While the voters are stretching to place less deserving one-loss teams to pass Boise State on a weekly basis (USC replacing Virginia Tech in this regard)....I was glad to see Boise State being 4th in the BCS standings.....they were dropped to 6th in the AP despite winning their game last week......seriously if two of the top 3 lose, Boise stays undefeated but Boise gets passed up by a 1-loss team...that will only escalate the calls for a playoff.......weak conference or not...if a non-BCS team is one of two teams to run the table they at least deserve a chance to prove they are worthy of winning a national championship....

Whatever dignity the Titans had left is gone....

The first few weeks of the season the Titans were 0-3 but they were at least competitive in their losses. The last couple weeks, things had gotten progressively worse. Today, they bottomed out. I didn't know it was physically impossible to give up 5 touchdowns in a quarter in an NFL game but the Titans proved it was possible today. This is the thing you normally see when Florida schedules some cupcake 1-AA team...........seriously, when I saw that New England went up 45-0 scrolling across the bottom of my tv....I pretty much did a double take.....this goes to prove that any given year a team can go from 13-wins to a laughing stock and vice versa.....

At least today...the Dodgers weaker pitching staff is coming back to bite them

When I previewed the Dodgers-Phillies NLCS series, the one thing that stuck out to me is the discrepancy between pitching staffs. The Dodgers had been getting by on Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, etc. However, when your facing Cliff Lee in the playoffs, you can only go so far. The Dodgers started Hiroki Kuroda started and abruptly got rocked for 6 runs in 1 1/3 innings....as a result, the Dodgers have had no realistic shot to go up 2-1 in the NLCS...that combined with the Dodgers offense no-showing leaves the Phils up 8-0 in the 8th and the Dodgers moving one-step closer to having their season ended by the Phils.........

What is it with NFC teams losing to the laughingstocks of the NFL

This is something the Redskins have turned into an art-form. They have found ways to lose to the Chiefs, Lions and Panthers.........not exactly the most imposing schedule. But their divisional rival Eagles one-upped them this week by losing to the Raiders. The Raiders haven't shown this much fight since Tom Cable confronted his assistant in the pre-season. The Eagles may still have a winning record at 3-2 but any team that loses to the Raiders can NOT be taken seriously and from here I see the Eagles joining the Redskins in irrelevancy this year......and for the Redskins, their bad loss puts Jim Zorn one step closer to getting fired........

College Football (with one exception) and movies

Yesterday, I was watching Old School on tv (during/in-between college football games). It got my thinking a little bit. I was surfing the web and stumbled across Bravo's 100 Funniest Movies list which was graced by Old School's presence.. Instead of the normal College Football recap post......that's right it's time for another sports/non-sports list crossover posting.

7- Ace Ventura: Pet Detective- Penn St. Nittany Lions

After Penn St's 4th quarter melt down against Big 11 conference mate Iowa, these Nittany Lions have their BCS hopes severely wounded. It would have been one thing to lose to an elite conference team but losing to Iowa.....thank's for showing up and nurse yourselves up to better health next year.

16- Old School- Alabama

I've seen this movie many times and it never gets old. Involving starting a fraternity made up of adults who had reached their peak only to fade into adulthood for several years only to come back strong with a vengeance............. FRANK THE TANK!!!!!!

Well Alabama's football history has been the same way. They built up a strong tradition won lots of national championships (not to mention having some of the coolest helmets in college football---something about the numbers and helmets is appealing)....all was good and well until the mid-90s......they faded into irrelevance and obscurity (similar to Notre Dame).....and they looked to be every bit as irrelevant and mediocre as the "Fighting" Irish.

Then, they caught the 2 o'clock home, separated from their mediocrity and had their Mitch-A-Palooza. They hired Nick Saban (so he's not the most honest person, or a great person and he's inevitably going to leave Alabama for a higher paycheck) but he has made Alabama relevant again. He got them within minutes from a BCS title game this year and they've looked really strong this year and have a reasonable chance of winning the title this year.

20- The Jerk- LaGarrete Blount

Punching an opposing player in the head after losing to said team.....definitely Jerk-like behavior. Suspending him for the year seems to have worked out so far as they've gotten a couple of good wins against Cal and Utah since the punch and the suspension.

39-Best In Show- Virginia Tech/South Carolina/Iowa

They might not be the best teams overall, but they were the best in this week's set of College Football games as these teams all scored victories over Top-10 teams.

42-Austin Powers-Int'l man of Mystery (the exception) Bus Cook---Brett Favre---Jay Cutler

I came up with this analogy a couple weeks ago spontaneously and decided to mention it here. Bus Cook obviously is Brett Favre's agent. Cook, like Favre obviously wants to stick it to the Packers. After trying for a couple of years, they finally managed to sleaze their way to the Minnesota Vikings. Favre has become a villain, a hated rival, just embodies lots of negative traits against humanity. He is the Dr. Evil.

During the off season, another one of Cook's clients, Jay Cutler had a fit because Josh McDaniels was thinking about trading for Matt Cassell. Even though this didn't happen Cutler was still acting like a 5-year old (like Favre). Like Favre, Cutler has the same agent. Like Favre, Cutler got traded to a team that is arch-rivals with the Packers (Bears). Like Favre, Cutler has a strong arm, huge ego, acts childish, is a "gunslinger" and throws lots of interceptions. Basically, Cutler is a younger, less talented, equally childish version of Favre, I shall call him mini-me.

51-Ferris Bueller's Day Off- California

So the Cal Bears didn't literally take the day off to explore Chicago and instead played their scheduled game against Oregon. Still, with the way they played they might of well taken the day off. Thanks for showing up for the BCS contention these few weeks and we'll see you again in 2010.

75-Dumb and Dumber- Poll Voters/Ole Miss

Really, Mississippi in the top 5. A 9-win season, an upset over Florida (last year) and a bowl win over a Texas Tech team going through the motions makes a top five team? It would be one thing if they lost to an elite team such as Florida or Alabama. They couldn't even beat a South Carolina team that never has and never will be elite. Even though South Carolina won, they didn't even look good while winning. They max out at 7-5, they commit dumb penalties, they don't completely capitalize on opportunities. Pretty much, they're the SEC equivalent to Michigan State (NOT a good thing).........despite their inherent mediocrity they still didn't find a way to lose to this alleged #4 team.

77-Flirting with Disaster--LSU/Michigan

For struggling to/needing to pull a win out of nowhere against inferior teams that they should of blown out (by halftime). [Mississippi State and Indiana respectively] Still these two teams did well in the one area that ultimately matters (not losing), are still undefeated and could still run the table and get to the top of the BCS pecking order.

87-Kentucky Fried Movie- Kentucky

To not showing up against Florida. Sure, Kentucky is never going to be good at football and nobody is expecting them to beat Florida. But to be down 31-0 after the first quarter. That's the type of things that happens to a division 1-AA not an SEC team (albeit a bad one).

91-Revenge of the Nerds Boise State/TCU/Houston

The Non-BCS/BCS school debate has taken on the Jocks vs. Nerds setup depicted in this movie. The BCS schools (and their advocates such as David Whitley) want to do everything possible to discredit the rest of these teams and to hog all the money and glory for themselves.

The Boise's, TCUs and Houston's of this world just want their chance to show they are just as good (if not better) than some of these BCS teams and to have a chance to play for the BCS title game and be recognized for the teams they are fielding.

So far, there is reasonable hope that it could happen this year. Boise State has cracked the top 5 and has a win over a solid Oregon team to their credit. TCU just went on the road and beat Clemson. Last but definitely not least Houston and their success against the Big 12. They followed up their win over Oklahoma State with a thrilling come-from behind victory over Texas Tech. Point being...there are three undefeated teams that are ready and capable of beating BCS-caliber teams regardless of how much others don't want it to happen.

Sucessful Non-BCS Schools are NOT bad for college football

I'm not sure what the best way to put it lightly is, but this article is THE worst sports article I have read in at least a couple of months.

To me, it seems like the writer (David Whitley) is trying to become the Billy Packer of college football (in other words, be heavily biased towards BCS conferences and never giving any of the non-BCS conferences credit for anything and trying to sabotage their credibility)

The entire article is basically a smear campaign on all of the elite college football conferences that have the misfortune of not being in one of the 6 BCS conferences that control the money. The first three paragraphs alone are enough to make the blood boil a little bit.

Unless the NCAA takes the win away, Bobby Bowdenjust did college football a big favor. His Florida Stateteam beat Brigham Young, knocking out a pretender to the throne.

Excuse me, who are you to speak for College Football? Having a non-traditional football team contend for a title would not hurt College Football. It would only make it stronger. It would give hope to fan bases outside the major conferences. It would inspire fans that in any given year...if they have one of those dream seasons...they could perhaps win a championship. BYU even won a title in the 80s and college football hasn't been any better or worse for it.

Also, BYU a pretender? Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't they beat one of the elite programs in Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago?

Then Oregon beat fellow pretender Utah. Now if somebody could dump Boise State, we'll all have a merry Christmas.

Utah as a pretender? The same Utah team that's 2-0 in BCS bowl games this decade? The same Utah team that was the only team to go undefeated last year and destroy a strong Alabama team in their bowl game. The same Utah team that got robbed of playing in the title game for playing in the wrong conference?

That's not likely because the Broncos have already gone unbeaten in their one-game season. It's all over but the routing of San Jose State, Idaho, UC Davis, UC Chula Vista and UC Schwarzenegger.

I will concede that Boise State doesn't play in the strongest conference. That being said, they still have to execute on the field, play the games. While those teams are not setting the college football world on fire, it's guaranteed that their opponents are going to bring their A-games against Boise State and the Boise State will still have to work for their wins.

And to infer that the success of the small guys is bad for College Football, correct me if i'm wrong but didn't Boise State give us one of the most entertaining bowl games when they beat Oklahoma in '07. I guarantee you an overtime game like that would not generate the same buzz if it was one of your standard BCS conference 10-2 team such as Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, or whatever happens to pass for a Big East or ACC Champion in that given year.

On a side note, how dare you slam the fine UC System (which I am a product of) and make the point of slamming UCD by listing a couple of made up UC names. I'll be the first to admit my alma matter is not what you'd call a football juggernaut. However, if your gonna slam UC Davis at least put them next to an actual UC School. I'll even list a few examples you can use next time to save you 20 seconds of your time (UC Santa Cruz, UC Merced, UC Santa Barbara and UC Riverside).

I'd have a lot more respect for Boise State if it played a real schedule. More importantly, the BCS would have a lot more respect if the Broncos had to get up for more than one game a year.

Come on, Boise State is not the first top-25 team nor the last top-25 program to schedule non-conference cupcakes (this weekend). Boise State has Bowling Green on the schedule this weekend. Granted Bowling Green is not what you would call an elite program but it's no worse than scheduling Louisiana-Lafayette (Nebraska...cough...cough..), Charleston Southern (cough...Florida..cough) or Florida International (Alabama....cough)....Point being, where's the outrage of the elite programs scheduling teams that are inferior to them.

Sure, Boise State beat Oklahoma in a thrilling Fiesta Bowl and Utah thumped Alabama in last year's Sugar Bowl. Nobody's saying the best from the Mountain West and WAC can't beat the best from the SEC and Big 12.

Then how come your so reluctant to let these teams prove themselves on College Football's biggest stage? Seriously, last year in the MWC, there were 3 teams finishing in the top-16. On the contrary, the best the ACC could give us is a 3-loss Cincinnati team and a 4-loss Virginia Tech team. While the WAC is basically the Boise State show, (how they get slammed for this while Florida State's got a free pass for being THE ACC in the 90s is beyond me).

Well that's enough ranting and raving for one night. I can't wait to see Boise State, TCU and/or Houston school Ohio State in a BCS bowl game.

The College Football Review: Bad Day For Mid-Majors

Well, a third week of college football is in the books. Didn't seem as exciting as the first two weeks, but it did serve the purpose of thinning out the ranks of the unbeaten It still raises some interesting questions such as

Does USC's loss to Washington take them out of the national title chase?

If it were just about any other school, yes. While USC won't be in the discussion (for now)....once the ranks of the undefeated thins out to 2 or less (and assuming USC wins the rest of their games) we will be hearing about them again (rolls eyes).....they've become the New York Yankees of college football and since they get the benefit of a doubt that has evaded undefeated teams of the past such as Boise State/Hawaii/Utah, etc....we will be hearing about them more come November

I still hold firm on my statement that the Mountain West is a great football conference but they didn't help their case yesterday.

Between Utah losing on the road to an Oregon team that showed signs of fight during the game and NOT after the game and BYU getting upset and manhandled at home by Florida St., it looks like there is a void to fill in the BCS party-crasher/going undefeated and getting shut out of the title game slot filled by Utah last year.

Despite yesterday, BYU and Utah are still great teams that will at least be Top 25 but their status as non-BCS schools leaves them zero margin for error. It looks like TCU is the conference's last hope of being the Mountain West school to run the table, be deserving at a national title shot only to be snubbed in favor of a 1 (or 2 loss) team.

All sarcasm aside, yesterday should NOT be an excuse for the Mountain West to be written off. The two teams just didn't do enough to win on their games but they will be back with a vengeance for the rest of the season.

Who becomes the non-BCS darling now?

As I mentioned in the last paragraph, TCU is the last undefeated elite standing in the Mountain West. They were in the mix last year finished in the top-10 but were atrociously relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl against an equally deserving Boise State Team.

So that leaves us with three non-BCS options.. a) Boise State--the hook and ladder darlings of the 2006 season--the only team to play on blue turf that looks extra creepy on HD---and most importantly coached by UC Davis alum Chris Petersen---they look to have the best chance to run the table but the weakness of the WAC works against them

b)TCU--If they can run the gauntlet of their MWC schedule they're probably the best hope or

c)Houston--Can they overcome most people not knowing about them to crash the party. Unlike Boise State and TCU who have gotten themselves high profile wins and have national profiles higher than the conference they play in, Houston hasn't been prominent in the national scene since the early 1990s.

However, they do have an impressive high profile win (AT Oklahoma State) and an explosive offense that should run circles around their Conference USA Schedule. While Conference USA will hurt Houston in the strength of schedule, if they're able to run up the score enough they could raise their profile quickly within the next couple months.