Tuesday, May 25, 2010
5/28: Epic Duels, Epic Walkoffs With A Side Of West-Coast Bias
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Baseball On TV This Weekend
Monday, March 29, 2010
Finally.....Winter's Over....Here's some baseball games that will count
Sunday, March 14, 2010
NL West Preview Part II
Saturday, March 13, 2010
NL West Preview Part I
1-Freddy Sanchez
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
My take on Todd Wellemeyer signing with the Giants
Lincecum v. Giants
Saturday, November 14, 2009
An Award List.....With A Twist
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Hot Stove Rundown--Only 150 Days to Opening Day
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Outsmarting the experts and why I would vote Chris Carpenter for the Cy Young Award
This is the second (in a yet to be determined amount of columns) where I use logic and reason to outsmart Joe Morgan. This time, instead of taking a broad brush the focus is going to be on the NL Cy Young Race. During his chat last Tuesday, the following question was posed:
Steve (
Joe Morgan
(11:17 AM)
I would give it to Wainwright, but there are a lot of people that believe that Carpenter deserves it. Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year. Carpenter had the injury. Wainwright led the league in wins and had more innings than Lincecum and Carpenter. ERA and strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do. The name of the game is to win.
Admittedly, the Cy Young Award race is close and all 3 of the pitchers mentioned (Wainwright, Lincecum and Carpenter) have pretty strong cases. The problem I have is the way he reaches his conclusion.....i'll breakdown the segments and then mention why I would vote for Carpenter
a) Wainwright pitched more innings, he was there the whole year
Fair enough. Wainwright did lead the NL in innings pitched but didn't necessarily leave his Cy Young competition in the dust. Wainwright had 233, Lincecum 225 1/3 and Carpenter 192 2/3, all three have a long body of work and pitched more than enough innings to contend for the lead in rate statistics (ERA, SO/9, WHIP, etc.)
Using innings pitched for Cy Young Criteria isn't the best logic. For example, Bronson Arroyo was 4th in innings pitched with 220 1/3, but it would be absolutely absurd to vote for him and his 15-13 3.84 era 115 ERA+ season for a Cy Young Award over a more deserving candidate such as Carpenter on this basis.
b) Carpenter had the injury
Alright, he was injured but he only missed about a month. Granted this doesn't help his case but it isn't an automatic dis-qualifier. Still, Carpenter was very dominant and was healthy in the June/July part of the season when the NL Central was close and needed him to step up (which he did). Also, Lincecum only gets a passing mention here and he didn't even lose time to injury.
c) Wainwright led the league in Wins
That's nice...the Cy Young Award is around for the purpose of recognizing the best pitcher. While being a superior pitcher generally leads to more wins, that is not always the case. On a theoretical basis, pitcher A pitches 5 innings gives up 6 runs, leaves with a 10-6 lead which his bullpen holds on to and gets the win. Pitcher B pitches a gem throws 8 shutout innings but gets no run support and gets a no-decision or loss. Is pitcher A a better pitcher because he got the win? no.........while this is one start and a small sample size it does illustrate that having more wins doesn't make one a better pitcher
In a world where wins was used as the criterion for Cy Young voting....a league average pitcher like Jorge de la Rosa 16-9 4.38 era 103 ERA+ would be in this Cy Young discussion while Tim Lincecum's much better 15-win season would be ignored....obviously most people see through the absurdity of the win-total statistic and thankfully no one is dumb enough to vouch for de la Rosa winning a Cy Young for this reason.
To further demonstrate the absurdity of win-loss totals, i'll use my Brewers as an example. Braden Looper (1/2 of the two-headed monster i've named Jaden Loopan) led the Brewers in wins with 14. Was he the best Brewers pitcher this year? Would anyone be dumb enough to argue this? No and I really hope not. Looper gave up a ridiculous amount of home runs but also had a ridiculous amount of run support.
In comparison, Yovani Gallardo had a much better season, was the ace of the staff and ended up with a record of 13-12. Anyone with half a brain would realize that Gallardo is a much better pitcher than Looper and the differences in win-loss records had a lot more to do with one pitcher getting much better run support than anything else........a vote based on win totals could lead to a Looper-esque pitcher being backed for Cy Young Award and that is a scary notion.
d) ERA and Strikeouts don't impress me as much as wins do
Since I just finished a very long-winded rant about the weakness of the win stati'll focus on the ERA part of the argument. Since I don't necessarily hold high batter strikeouts against a player if they are productive hitters otherwise (i.e. Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds) i'm going to divert my argument towards the ERA side.
While ERA isn't a perfect stat, it does a much better job of measuring pitching effectiveness than wins. It does cut pitchers some slack in some cases such as if they give up a big hit after an error for example but there are worse stats (Wins)....but it gives a reasonable portrayal of how good or bad a pitcher is
Carpenter 2.24
Lincecum 2.48
Wainwright 2.62
Also, even though he hasn't been in the Cy Young discussion at all (due to bad luck in W-L column) i'd like to recognize Jair Jurrgens for having an excellent season and having a better ERA than Wainwright.....he had to work much more for his 14-win season than Braden Looper and Carl Pavano had to work for theirs.
Personally, I depend more on the ERA+ statistic as a better metric and to give context to where these pitchers rank within the league (Carpenter 185+, Lincecum 173+, Wainwright 158 ERA+)........to wrap around to the initial argument, why do I mention these numbers.....well because the object of the Cy Young Award is to recognize the best pitcher and the ERA stats are able to give us a quick and dirty measurement of who pitched better, pitcher A, pitcher B or pitcher C
e) If I had a Vote for the Cy Young Award I would vote in this order and because:
1) Chris Carpenter-By every measurable metric, he has the most well-rounded and dominant body of work....the missed starts weaken his case but it only makes the race closer....but not cost him the award
2) Tim Lincecum- Lincecum is a beast, a freak of nature (in a good way) and one of the most exciting players to watch. If the season had ended in August I may have been swayed to place him #1. However he has two flaws in his body of work which drop him to second. First, he didn't quite measure up statistically to Carpenter. Second, even if he did what he did with the season on the line would have been used as a tie-breaker that he would have lost. He had a bad month (by his standards) a 3.38 era in September and most importantly got rocked in a crucial game against LA on the 20th 5 ER in 4 innings when the Giants were playing for their playoff lives. Carpenter on the other hand, was unbeatable in July (when St. Louis was fighting for NL Central Supremacy) and in August (when they were pulling away).
3) Adam Wainwright- I know it may sound like i'm being critical of him in this article. But he had an amazing season and a strong breakout year. Carpenter's and Lincecum's seasons were just better.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Baseball Weekend Preview
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Baseball For the Weekend: These Races Need to be Closer
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Week 1 NFL Preview---Lots of Questions--Too Early For Answers
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Weekend Baseball Preview: As Much As I Like the NFL, Baseball Still Comes First
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Spoiler Opportunity #1-Brewers/Giants Preview
Friday, August 28, 2009
The (Late) Weekend Preview
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Weekend Preview: Yanks-Sox plus other action
Red Sox vs. Yankees = 1 [minus 3 points due to ESPN overkill]
Saturday-FOX Sunday-ESPN
Saturday [Burnett vs. Tazawa] Sunday [Sabathia vs. Beckett]
I really want to rate this series higher than a 1. There are plenty of playoff implications. Do the Yankees pull away further, what about the Red Sox loose grip on the wild card race. While there are interesting things about this match-up [most notably Sunday's potential pitching duel]......ESPN has overkilled this series and undermined from me actually caring.
Watching MLB Network last night it is clear I am not alone.....I was watching MLB tonight and they were doing a cut-in to last night Yankees-A's game and Matt Vasgersian makes a random comment along the lines of nobody making a big deal about Johnny Damon leaving Oakland and something along the lines of it's all about the Yankees and Red Sox in a disproving matter.....God I love the MLB Network.......while Vasgersian may not be able to differentiate between Fernando Vina and Fernando Valenzuela....or refrain form dropping F-Bombs on live tv........his comment was one of those moments that made me glad ESPN actually has some competition
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Saturday- FOX [Lilly vs. Haeger] = 3
Not the best series this weekend....but still worth checking out. Both teams have struggled as of late and one of these teams will turn it around by default. The Cubs are quickly fading away from the NL Central and Wild Card race and starts their only all-star this year [Ted Lilly]. The Dodgers whose once insurmountable NL West lead has trimmed to four games counter with Charlie Haeger.
Giants vs. Rockies
Saturday-MLB Network [Martinez vs. De La Rosa] =4
This series has heavy playoff implications as these two teams are neck and neck in the NL Wild Card race. The Giants start rookie Joe Martinez while the Rockies counter with one of my least favorite pitchers in the league Jorge De La Rosa....either way this should be a really close, intense and good game
Rangers vs. Rays
Sunday TBS [Feldman vs. Price] =3.5
Another wild card battle. The Rays are looking to make a return trip to the playoffs [this year as a wild card] the Rangers are looking for their first playoff trip in 10 years around a much improved pitching staff......the Rangers resurgence is occurring in ex-Brewers pitching coach Mike Maddux's first year as the Rangers pitching coach........this has a lot to do with why the Rangers pitching has helped them stay in contention and why the Brewers pitching has fallen off a cliff....but that's besides the point.......good game.....solid teams...heavy playoff implications....can't ask for much more on a Sunday morning.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
The Thursday Post
Phillies vs. Braves-Saturday [TBD vs. Kawakami] FOX =4
Sunday [TBD vs. Vasquez] ESPN =4
Definitely one of the better series this weekend. The Phillies have gotten a bit complacent lately letting half of their NL East lead in a recent sweep against the Marlins. The Phils have not decided who to pitch this weekend.
For the Braves, they have played some of their best ball in the last couple of weeks, breaking away from .500 land. They still have work to do as they still sit at 4 1/2 back. It will be interesting to see if Kawakami can follow up his strong start in L.A. with another clutch start on Saturday. On sunday, they bring out Javier Vasquez who is quietly having his best season this year.
Phillies win Saturday, Braves win Sunday
Giants [Cain] vs. Mets [Santana]- Saturday FOX = 3.5
This match-up gets an extra point and a half due to the pitching match-up. While the Mets have two strikes against them [they play in New York and not being good] the Mets are worth watching in this game solely due to Johan Santana getting the start.
The Giants are in a year long experiment to see how inept a team can be offensively while still making the playoffs. While Tim Lincecum has gotten his well-deserved respect for helping this cause along, Matt Cain is having a MONSTER season and has played a big part into why the Giants are within striking distance [ 1 1/2 games back] of the wild card.
Giants win this game 1-0
Indians [Huff] vs. Twins [TBD] =2
This match-up looked a lot better before the season began. At this point of the season, not so much. This is the teams first meeting after consummating that epic trade bringing Carl Pavano to Minnesota.
The Skeleton Indians start a rookie named David Huff who i've never even heard of. Looking at his stats it's easy to see since he's having by all stretches of the imagination, a terrible year [6-6 6.72 era 68 ERA+]
The Twins have yet to decide who they're starting but does it matter. While they are only 5 games back, they seem to be going nowhere and through the motions.......if they're gonna make a run...sweeping the skeleton Indians would be a good first step.
Whoever the Twins start is getting themselves a win.
Rangers vs. Red Sox [Penny vs. Holland] Saturday MLB Network =4
[Tazawa vs. Nippert] Sunday TBS
The pitching match-ups may not be top notch but this game has very heavy wild card implications. As of this writing, the Red Sox are clinging to a 1/2 game wild card lead over the rangers. The Red Sox had a terrible weekend in New York but bounced back by taking 3 out of 4 from the Tigers.
This will be a close and high scoring series. Both teams have loaded offenses and will be going up against pitchers that just aren't that good. The Red Sox will probably will do just enough pitching wise to pull out the series win.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Weekend Preview: The Post-Trade Deadline Addition
Saturday FOX Afternoon (Regional)
Yankees (Burnett) vs. White Sox (Danks) =2
Yankees......zzzzzz......wake me in the playoffs. White Sox.....lucky for them they are playing in a weak AL Central and sit only 3 games out despite struggling most of the season.
Expect Good Games Out of: Paul Konerko, Jorge Posada
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: A.J. Pierzynski, Derek Jeter
Dodgers (Wolf) vs. Braves (Lowe) = 3
Dodgers are crusing through the NL West. Braves have been up and down this year and have ex-Dodger Derek Lowe pitching for them.
Expect Good Game Out of: Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Juan Pierre
Royals (TBD) vs. Rays (Niemann) =1
Decent Rays team fighting for wild-card against a Royals team that has taken up permanent residency as irrelevents.....to think it was only may when the Royals were in first and the Onion wrote an article about the Royals not being able to find themselves in the standings
Expect Good Game out of: Jeff Niemann
Don't Expect Good Game out of: The Royals
Saturday night MLB Game
Cardinals (Carpenter) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) =4
Sure these teams aren't great but this game does carry pennant race implications. The Cards are tied for the Cubs for first while the Astros are tied with the Brewers at 4 games out of first.....the Astros might be the weaker team on paper but they do tend to play really well the last couple months of the year.....definitely the best game out of the televised action on Saturday.
Expect Good Games out of: Ivan Rodriguez, Matt Holliday
Don't Expect Good Games out of: Miguel Tejada, Brendan Ryan
Sunday TBS Game:
Phillies (Hamels) vs. Giants (Zito) =3.5
Potential playoff preview. The Phillies just acquired Cliff Lee for a lot less than what the Blue Jays were asking....the Phillies (along with the Dodgers) look to be the teams to beat in the National League...the Giants suprising season plugs along as they are clinging on to the Wild Card lead.....Ryan Garko may not be Cliff Lee but he should make a positive impact in the starting line up
Expect Good Games Out of: Jimmy Rollins
Don't Expect Good Games Out of: Bengie Molina, Raul Ibanez
Dodgers (Billingsley) vs. Braves (Jurrgens) = 3.5
Good weekend ending match-up. Sold starter in Billingsley versus Jair Jurrjens who is quietly having a much better season (155 ERA+) than his 9-7 record would indicate
Expect Good Game Out of: Jair Jurrjens
Don't Expect Good Game Out of: Ryan Church
