Wednesday, February 10, 2010

My take on Todd Wellemeyer signing with the Giants

The Giants have just signed pitcher Todd Wellemeyer to a one-year deal.

This begs the question of will this be one of the more brilliant signings of the winter or just another space filler. At first brush, he strikes me as a one-year wonder ('08) that has come and gone. He's started more than 10 games in 3 seasons. He's had one average year ('07) one good year ('08) and one terrible year ('09).

According to his baseball-reference page his career has been similar to luminaries such as Joaquin Benoit, Willie Banks and Marvin Freeman.

For a better answer, it's time to consult Ron Shandler's baseball forecaster for further insight. He ain't repeating '08 but I see him as an inning-eater. Bad luck can be blamed for some of his struggles as his opposing H% was 35 (he was in the 27%-29% range the previous three years). This inflated his WHIP (although his decreased strike percentage helped out), his hr/fb and flyball percentages stayed within his historical norms.

Verdict: If he makes the rotation his ceiling would be 10 wins/4.5 era. He works as a stop-gap/innings-eater/likely to do better than your typical AAA player but not someone who's getting a long term deal or on very many fantasy teams anytime soon.

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