Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Brewers-Phils Preview

Well, the Brewers were unable to pass the Cubs for second and to crack .500. If nothing else, the Brewers were able to salvage a game and not get swept at home by the Cubs. This weekend, the Brewers play a team that's tuning up for the preseason (Phillies) in a rematch of last year's NLDS. Unlike the Phils, the Brewers are definitely not making a return trip to the post-season as they are mathematically eliminated.

If nothing else, there's no way this series could go any worse than the disastrous 4 game set against the Phils last September that basically cost Ned Yost his job.

Brewers 75-77 vs. Phillies 88-62

Happ 10-4 2.77 era 155 ERA+ vs. Suppan 7-10 4.76 era 89 ERA+

Definitely a one-sided pitching match-up in favor of the Phils. J.A. Happ has had an excellent year and I would not be surprised to see him coast through this start. While it has come way too late and is irrelevant since these have been irrelevant games but Suppan has actually pitched well in September(there, I finally said something almost positive about Jeff Suppan.)

Lee 14-11 2.99 era 150 ERA+ vs. Parra 10-10 6.42 era 66 ERA+

To follow up with a future Cy-Young Award winner in J.A Happ, the Phils follow up with Cliff Lee. Lee has pretty much played the role of this year's Sabathia to a T (left-handed Cy Young Award winner from the previous year, starts solid for an Indians team going nowhere, gets shipped to the National League and becomes a factor in the pennant race)

The Brewers counter with Manny Parra who has by all conceivable measurements underachieved this year. He has too much talent to pitch this bad the rest of his career. I'm pretty sure he'll get it together and at least by a solid 2/3 starter, I just hope it's for the Brewers and not someone else.

Martinez 5-1 3.32 era 130 ERA+ vs. Looper 13-7 5.12 era 82 ERA+

If Lee and Happ aren't enough, the Brewers are the next stop on the Pedro Martinez comeback tour. He's pitched and held up a lot better than I expected him to. He could push the Phils over the top for another title (assuming Brad Lidge doesn't single-handedly pitch this team out of it)

The Brewers follow up with Braden Looper. The only reason to watch Looper pitch is to see how many more homers he can give up. Headed into this start, the total is at 37, which is good for a tie for 47th all time.

TBD vs. Bush 5-8 6.22 era 68 ERA+

With the arsenal of pitchers the Phillies are bringing out in the first three games, does it really matter who starts Sunday? Phils are cruising to the NL East title, Brewers are coasting to a 3rd place finish and David Bush's disastrous season gets another footnote added to it.

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