Thursday, August 6, 2009

Brewers-Astros Preview: The Battle for Third Place

Another weekend series is upon the Brewers. The Crew is coming off their first series win since late June as they won 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers........if the Brewers are going to salvage their season they will not to keep this momentum going this weekend.....and here's the breakdown

Brewers 54-54 (7.7% chance of making the playoffs)
Astros 53-55 (2.4% chance of making the playoffs)

For more playoff odds see


Brewers (Villaneuva 2-8 5.98 era 70 ERA+) vs. Astros (Norris 1-0 0.90 era 464 ERA+)

I really don't know what to make of this match-up. For the Astros they have Bud Norris going for them. He had an excellent debut against the Cards on Sunday but he remains more of an unknown. The Brewers tend to struggle horribly bad against pitchers making their major league debut but it's yet to be seen how much (if any) this applies to pitchers making their second start.

Villaneuva is an enigma wrapped within a riddle. If this was a week ago I would have little to no confidence in his ability to give a decent start. His pitching was Gagne-esque terrible for a month and a half straight....bottoming out to him giving up 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning [pretty much bad enough to suggest he should be sent down to Nashville]. However, he had a strong, gritty performance in San Diego and at least for a game managed to pitch his way out of trouble. He has had a tendency to get hot and cold for extended stretches of time throughout his career.......


Brewers (Parra 6-8 6.33 era 67ERA+) vs. Roy Oswalt( 6-4 3.61 era 116 ERA+)

Roy Oswalt takes the hill for the Astros so i'm not expecting an offensive explosion from the Brewers in this one.

Manny Parra takes the hill for the Crew. He's coming off a strong start in LA where he went 8+ innings and induced a lot of ground ball outs. He's pitched much better since coming back from Nashville but still occasionally walks his way into some sticky situations....if the Astros capitalize on these situations should they come's not gonna be good....if Parra can pitch his way out of any trouble....the Brewers will be able to squeak out enough offense to win


Brewers (Gallardo 10-8 3.59 era 117ERA+) vs. (Rodriguez 10-6 2.63 era 158 ERA+)

I honestly don't like the Brewers chances in this one. Gallardo needs to step up in this game and NOT give up 9 runs like he did on Tuesday [luckily for him attention from this was diverted by Prince Fielder's failed attempt to enter the Dodger dugout].......he's obviously not gonna pitch that bad again since the Dodgers do hit Gallardo better than most teams.....but this game is being played on Sunday and the Brewers tend to not play well on Sundays

The Astros have Wandy Rodriguez pitching who is quietly putting up a very solid year and has played a big role in the Astros even being this close at this point...

What I think will happen: Brew Crew wins Friday and Saturday, Astros take Sunday.........

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