Thanks to my awesomely epic subscription to mlb.tv, i've been able to watch significantly more Brewers baseball than in the past. While their comback victory against the Twins was awesome (going from 2 out no on down 3-2 to up 4-3 by the end of the inning was especially epic).....while I could write a whole post about the game, i'm not.
Point being, during the game they did one of those text polls where they asked viewers to text in whether or not they think Joe Mauer can hit .400 this year (currently he's sitting at .394) which got me thinking to which acheivments and/or records in baseball are least likely to be acheived.....so here goes my list of top five records/acheivments and the likeliness i'll live long enough to see them broken
1) Cy Young's record of 511 wins:
Well when they name the award for best pitcher after you, it follows logically that you must of done something epic. Nothing says epic like winning 511 games......granted he played in a different time when pitching rotations were shorter, starting pitchers were actually expected to go nine innings.....but even in his era, nobody came even close...the way things are today it's about 50-50 whether anyone will break 300 let alone 511
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 etc.......................
2) Cal Ripken Jr. playing in 2,632 games
This record was an anomoly even within the context of the 80s/90s.....his focus on playing day in/day out is something you just don't see..even the "everyday" players in this miss games either through injury and/or being rested at some point....this is record also won't be threatened since there would be too much criticism if a player struggled after playing in x consecutive games..
To put it in current context, the longest active current streak is held by Adrian Gonzales at 275...at this rate he would have to play 15 years (taking him to age 42) for this record to be broken....too much can happen between now and then......
Odds: 1 in 1,000,000
3) Sam Crawford: 309 triples
Like Young's record the unbreakability of this record lies a lot in the times he played in.....in Crawford's time (1899-1917) came straight through the heart of the dead-ball era.....home runs had yet to come in style so naturally more players were gonna hit triples.....
In today's context, the active leader in triples is Johnny Damon who has 94.....considering he's 35 and plays half his games in a stadium so small that routine fly balls in other parks are home runs in yankee stadium......there's no way he catches up
Odds: 1 in 940,940
4) Ricky Henderson: 1406 stolen bases
Ricky Henderson dares you to try to break Ricky Henderson's record. Ricky Henderson dares you to try to steal 130 bases in a season. In all seriousness, the changes in baseball thinking are going to eventaully lead the stolen base to a point where this part of the record book is going to gather dust........even in the past 10-20 years teams are more averse to stealing bases and only a select few players even break 50 steals in a year.
Active Leader: Juan Pierre 446......he'd have to steal 96 a year for the next ten years to tie the record (he's already 31)......considering his career high is 65.........I don't see that happening
Odds: 1 in 96,000
5) Joe DiMaggio 56- game hitting streak:
The fact that this happened even once was abnormal in itself. This is a record that hasn't even come close to being threatend since it was established. There's just too much that can go wrong between point A and point B. All it takes is one bad day for a bid to break this record to hit the dust. There is a reason why people make a big deal when players even get halfway to this streak
Odds: 1 in 5,600
For the Record:
Since the .400 season was how I got the idea for this post I will end with my take on it. Granted, this has not been acheived since 1941.......every 10-20 years it seems like someone makes a run for at for at least a few months.......George Brett came really close in 1980, Tony Gwynn was at .394 when the 1994 strike hit.
In the context of Joe Mauer, I would give him a better chance if he wasn't a catcher. While he has done things as a hitter that others have failed to do (such as win 2 batting titles), the reality is playing catcher is the most physically demanding positon in the field and the inherent difficulty of hitting .400 I honestly don't see it happening.... However, unlike the other acheivments on the list, this acheivment is one that has at least shown to be approachable....not sure who will hit .400 but I feel fairly confident it will happen within my lifetime.
Pick of the day: For today, I replicated my pick from Tuesday (correctly) picking the Brewers over the Twins.
Thursday Pick of the Day: Red Sox over Nationals